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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-01-12
    Description: Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully ‘tracking’ climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting ‘adaptive’ community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. This study investigates how bird and butterfly communities have changed during three decades of climate warming. We present the first evidence to show that community changes appear to be constrained by high-intensity land use. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-10-27
    Description: Many factors may affect daily nest survival. We present a novel multi-state, multi-stage model to estimate daily survival for each nest stage, daily hatching probability and probability that a failed nest died during a specific stage when stage of failure is unknown. The model does not require that hatching date be known. We used data from a large citizen science dataset to demonstrate the application of this approach, exploring the impact of laying dates, weather conditions, conserved soil moisture, soil carbon, habitat type and urbanisation on failure rates of common blackbird ( Turdus merula ) nests. Models selected and estimates of nest success were similar to those of the simpler logistic exposure method, but accounted for additional uncertainty. Simulations suggest the multi-state approach performs better when incubation mortality is affected by nest age, but not when incubation mortality is assumed constant. Both approaches worked best when date of incubation initiation was known for all nests first visited during the incubation stage. Daily blackbird survival probabilities were higher in human rural habitat than in urban or countryside habitats supporting the hypothesis that these intermediate habitats offer a better balance between low food availability in urban areas and high predation rates in the wider countryside. Nest success was influenced more by recent precipitation in urban habitats, but by a longer-term measure of water availability, soil moisture, in non-human dominated habitats, indicating that climatic change is likely to alter relationships between habitat and breeding success (and their temporal scale) by influencing the trade-off between food availability and predation rates. The multi-state, multi-stage model developed here may be helpful to other researchers modelling ecological processes in which transition probabilities between multiple stages are of interest. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0012-9658
    Electronic ISSN: 1939-9170
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley on behalf of The Ecological Society of America (ESA).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-06-11
    Description: Temperate forest tree species that span large geographical areas and climatic gradients often have high levels of genetic variation. Such species are ideal for testing how neutral demographic factors and climate-driven selection structure genetic variation within species, and how this genetic variation can affect ecological communities. Here, we quantified genetic variation in vegetative phenology and growth traits in narrowleaf cottonwood, Populus angustifolia , using three common gardens planted with genotypes originating from source populations spanning the species' range along the Rocky Mountains of North America ( ca . 1700 km). We present three main findings. First, we found strong evidence of divergent selection ( Q ST  〉  F ST ) on fall phenology (bud set) with adaptive consequences for frost avoidance. We also found evidence for selection on bud flush duration, tree height, and basal diameter, resulting in population differentiation. Second, we found strong associations with climate variables that were strongly correlated with latitude of origin. More strongly differentiated traits also showed stronger climate correlations, which emphasizes the role that climate has played in divergent selection throughout the range. We found population × garden interaction effects; for some traits, this accounted for more of the variance than either factor alone. Tree height was influenced by the difference in climate of the source and garden locations and declined with increasing transfer distance. Third, growth traits were correlated with dependent arthropod community diversity metrics. Synthesis . Overall, we conclude that climate has influenced genetic variation and structure in phenology and growth traits and leads to local adaptation in P. angustifolia , which can then impact dependent arthropod species. Importantly, relocation of genotypes far northward or southward often resulted in poor growth, likely due to a phenological mismatch with photoperiod, the proximate cue for fall growth cessation. Genotypes moved too far southward suffer from early growth cessation, whereas those moved too far northward are prone to fall frost and winter dieback. In the face of current and forecasted climate change, habitat restoration, forestry, and tree breeding efforts should utilize these findings to better match latitudinal and climatic source environments with management locations for optimal future outcomes. Using replicated common garden experiments, we found evidence of divergent selection and local adaptation driven by climate in a foundation forest tree species. Genetic differentiation among populations in response to altered climate has significant impacts on tree growth and performance. In turn, these differences impact dependent arthropod species.
    Electronic ISSN: 2045-7758
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-05-14
    Description: Projecting the fates of populations under climate change is one of global change biology's foremost challenges. Here, we seek to identify the contributions that temperature-mediated local adaptation and plasticity make to spatial variation in nesting phenology, a phenotypic trait showing strong responses to warming. We apply a mixed modeling framework to a Britain-wide spatiotemporal dataset comprising 〉100 000 records of first egg dates from four single-brooded passerine bird species. The average temperature during a specific time period (sliding window) strongly predicts spatiotemporal variation in lay date. All four species exhibit phenological plasticity, advancing lay date by 2–5 days °C −1 . The initiation of this sliding window is delayed further north, which may be a response to a photoperiod threshold. Using clinal trends in phenology and temperature, we are able to estimate the temperature sensitivity of selection on lay date ( B ), but our estimates are highly sensitive to the temporal position of the sliding window. If the sliding window is of fixed duration with a start date determined by photoperiod, we find B is tracked by phenotypic plasticity. If, instead, we allow the start and duration of the sliding window to change with latitude, we find plasticity does not track B , although in this case, at odds with theoretical expectations, our estimates of B differ across latitude vs. longitude. We argue that a model combining photoperiod and mean temperature is most consistent with current understanding of phenological cues in passerines, the results from which suggest that each species could respond to projected increases in spring temperatures through plasticity alone. However, our estimates of B require further validation.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-07-14
    Description: Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels Nature 535, 7611 (2016). doi:10.1038/nature18608 Authors: Stephen J. Thackeray, Peter A. Henrys, Deborah Hemming, James R. Bell, Marc S. Botham, Sarah Burthe, Pierre Helaouet, David G. Johns, Ian D. Jones, David I. Leech, Eleanor B. Mackay, Dario Massimino, Sian Atkinson, Philip J. Bacon, Tom M. Brereton, Laurence Carvalho, Tim H. Clutton-Brock, Callan Duck, Martin Edwards, J. Malcolm Elliott, Stephen J. G. Hall, Richard Harrington, James W. Pearce-Higgins, Toke T. Høye, Loeske E. B. Kruuk, Josephine M. Pemberton, Tim H. Sparks, Paul M. Thompson, Ian White, Ian J. Winfield & Sarah Wanless Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-11-21
    Description: A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such “trophic asynchrony” is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long-distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg-laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to spring phenology, and related asynchrony to annual avian productivity. In warmer springs, birds were more asynchronous, but productivity was only marginally reduced; long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants and resident bird species all exhibited effects of similar magnitude. Long-term population, but not productivity, declines were greatest among those species whose annual productivity was most greatly reduced by asynchrony. This suggests that population change is not mechanistically driven by the negative effects of asynchrony on productivity. The apparent effects of asynchrony on population trends are therefore either more likely to be strongly expressed via other demographic pathways, or alternatively, are a surrogate for species' sensitivity to other environmental pressures which are the ultimate cause of decline. We use spatially extensive survey data of plants, invertebrates and birds to investigate whether asynchronous changes in egg-laying dates relative to spring onset are associated with reduced avian productivity and consequently population change. Bird species which have advanced egg-laying dates the least are declining fastest. In warmer springs, birds breed late relative to spring onset and productivity is reduced. Although species whose productivity is reduced the most are declining fastest, the mechanism cannot be directly attributed to the effects of asynchrony on productivity.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-06-30
    Description: Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. Here, we compare the outputs of 12 such climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and we validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results highlight considerable inconsistencies in species risk assignment across all the approaches considered and suggest the majority of the frameworks are poor predictors of risk under climate. Methods that incorporated historic trend data were the only ones to have any validity at predicting distributional trends in subsequent time periods.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018
    Description: 〈div data-abstract-type="normal"〉〈p〉A fine-grained, up to 3-m-thick tephra bed in southwestern Saskatchewan, herein named Duncairn tephra (Dt), is derived from an early Pleistocene eruption in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field of New Mexico, requiring a trajectory of northward tephra dispersal of ~1500 km. An unusually low CaO content in its glass shards denies a source in the closer Yellowstone and Heise volcanic fields, whereas a Pleistocene tephra bed (LSMt) in the La Sal Mountains of Utah has a very similar glass chemistry to that of the Dt, supporting a more southerly source. Comprehensive characterization of these two distal tephra beds along with samples collected near the Valles caldera in New Mexico, including grain size, mineral assemblage, major- and trace-element composition of glass and minerals, paleomagnetism, and fission-track dating, justify this correlation. Two glass populations each exist in the Dt and LSMt. The proximal correlative of Dt1 is the plinian Tsankawi Pumice and co-ignimbritic ash of the first ignimbrite (Qbt1g) of the 1.24 Ma Tshirege Member of the Bandelier Tuff. The correlative of Dt2 and LSMt is the co-ignimbritic ash of Qbt2. Mixing of Dt1 and Dt2 probably occurred during northward transport in a jet stream.〈/p〉〈/div〉
    Print ISSN: 0033-5894
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-0287
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 1980-09-26
    Description: Regular consumers of caffeine had higher muscle tension after three or more hours of abstinence than low caffeine consumers. This difference was absent after double-blind administration of caffeine citrate or placebo. In a discriminative reaction time test, caffeine treatment improved performance. Among subjects receiving placebo, anxiety was highly correlated with prior caffeine use, suggesting that even a brief abstinence may produce anxiety in the regular user.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉White, B C -- Lincoln, C A -- Pearce, N W -- Reeb, R -- Vaida, C -- AA 03513/AA/NIAAA NIH HHS/ -- HD 05958/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/ -- NS 11618/NS/NINDS NIH HHS/ -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1980 Sep 26;209(4464):1547-8.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7433978" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Adult ; Anxiety/*etiology ; Caffeine/*pharmacology ; Humans ; Muscle Contraction/*drug effects ; Substance Withdrawal Syndrome/complications/*physiopathology
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2015-09-25
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Pearce-Higgins, James W -- England -- Nature. 2015 Sep 24;525(7570):455. doi: 10.1038/525455b.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26399822" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Animals ; Birds ; *Conflict of Interest ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Data Collection ; Great Britain ; *Hobbies ; Motivation ; *Research Design ; Science/*manpower ; *Volunteers/psychology
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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