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  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Cambridge [u.a.] : MIT Press
    Associated volumes
    Call number: PIK B 160-11-0059
    In: The CESifo seminar series
    Description / Table of Contents: Contents: 1 Sustainability of Public Debt ; 2 The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States ; 3 Sustainability and Determinants of Italian Public Deficits before and after Maastricht ; 4 Policy Adjustments and Sustainability of Public Finances in the Netherlands ; 5 The Long Shadow of "Austrokeynesianism"? ; 6 The Stability Pact Pains ; 7 The Welfare State and Strategies toward Fiscal Sustainability in Denmark ; 8 Post-Thatcher Fiscal Strategies in the United Kingdom ; 9 On the Effectiveness of Debt Brakes
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: VI, 271 S. : graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 0262140985 , 978-0-262-14098-0
    Series Statement: CESifo seminar series
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 2
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: While there is ample evidence how central bank communication and interest rate decisions are perceived by financial markets, insights regarding the response of the public is lacking. Media is known to be an important transmitter of news to the public. Based on articles in the Financial Times Europe, we test how expectations on the future course of monetary policy presented in the media are affected by central bank communication and interest rate decisions.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; European Central Bank ; monetary policy announcements ; central bank communication ; media expectations ; Zinspolitik ; Staatliche Information ; Zentralbank ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: This paper examines how the analysis of inflation targeting (IT) adoption is affected by allowing for a structural change after adoption, using panel probit models for 60 countries over the period 1985-2008. Our findings suggest that there is a structural change after IT adoption. Including the post-adoption period when estimating the factors of IT adoption leads to biased results when interested in the question as of what drives countries' decision to adopt IT.
    Keywords: E42 ; E52 ; ddc:330 ; inflation targeting ; panel probit
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: This paper presents a composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth rate cycle concept. It is the result of a complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line with this tradition, the calculation of the new KOF Barometer comprises two main stages. The first consists of the variable selection procedure; and in the second stage these variables are subsequently transformed into one leading indicator. Whereas in the previous versions of the KOF Barometer six to 25 variables survived the first stage, the new - less discretionary and more automated - version of the first stage is much more generous. Currently, out of a set of 476 variables resulting in 4356 transformations thereof that are tested in the first stage, 219 variables manage to enter the second stage. The increased number of variables underlying the second stage allows a relatively stable and robust KOF Barometer - compared to its previous versions - that has hence no longer to rely on filtering techniques to reduce the noise in the final indicator. In a (pseudo-) real-time analysis the characteristics of the new KOF Barometer are compared to the previous versions and other alternatives.
    Keywords: E32 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Business cycles ; growth rate cycles ; composite indicators ; leading indicators ; principal component analysis ; real-time simulations
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Bailouts sponsored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are famous for their conditionality: in return for continued installments of desperately needed loans, governments must comply with austere policy changes. Many have suggested, however, that politically important countries face rather weak stringency. Obstacles to testing this hypothesis include finding a measure of political importance that is not plagued by endogeneity and obtaining data on IMF conditionality. We propose to measure political importance using temporary membership on the United Nations Security Council and analyze a newly available dataset on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the 1992 to 2008 period. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions. This suggests that the major shareholders of the IMF trade softer conditionality in return for political influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; Voting ; Aid ; Conditionality ; IWF-Kredit ; Internationale Wirtschaftsorganisation ; Mitgliedschaft ; Länderrisiko ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: We use real-time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and subsequent revisions. It turns out that revisions in the fiscal balance data are not affected by elections. However, we do find that governments spend more than reported before an election which provides support for moral-hazard type of political budget cycle (PBC) models: through hidden efforts the incumbent tries to enhance his perceived competence. We also find that governments had higher current receipts than reported before an election, which is in line with adverse-selection type of PBC models in which incumbents signal competence through expansionary fiscal policy before the elections.
    Keywords: D72 ; E62 ; H6 ; H83 ; P16 ; ddc:330 ; real-time data ; political budget cycles ; OECD ; Finanzpolitik ; Politischer Konjunkturzyklus ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Schätzung ; OECD-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Hartwig (2008) has presented empirical evidence that the difference between real wage growth and productivity growth at the macroeconomic level is a robust explanatory variable for deflated health-care expenditure growth in OECD countries. In this paper, we test whether this finding is robust to the inclusion of additional covariates, applying different versions of Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to data for 33 OECD countries over the period 1970-2010. As far as it is statistically feasible, all macroeconomic and institutional determinants of health-care expenditure growth that have been suggested in the literature are included in the EBA. Furthermore, we analyse to what extent outliers in the data influence the results using an outlier-robust MM estimator. Our results confirm Hartwig's earlier finding. A number of additional both covariate- and outlier-robust determinants are also identified.
    Keywords: C12 ; C23 ; I10 ; ddc:330 ; Health-care expenditure ; unbalanced growth ; Extreme Bounds Analysis ; MM estimator ; OECD panel ; Gesundheitskosten ; Reallohn ; Produktivität ; Ungleichgewichtiges Wachstum ; Schätzung ; OECD-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Relying on a large sample of countries, this paper quantifies the effect of political constraints, as measured by legislative control by the incumbent government, on the size of fiscal stimulus packages that have been put in place as reaction to the Great Recession. The results suggest that on average, political constraints reduced the size of a country's fiscal stimulus packages by between 1.2 and 2.8 percentage points of GDP (depending on the stimulus measure used). This substantial effect is significant and robust to a number of alternative dependent variables and specifications. The results are thus in line with the widely held, but never tested, perception that political reality limits the de facto application of discretionary fiscal policy as reaction to negative economic shocks.
    Keywords: E02 ; E32 ; E62 ; E65 ; H12 ; P48 ; ddc:330 ; legislative control ; fiscal stimulus ; Great Recession
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: We examine the relationship between capitalism and income inequality for a large sample of countries using an adjusted economic freedom index as proxy for capitalism and Gini coefficients based on gross-income as proxy for income inequality. Our results suggest that there is no robust relationship between economic freedom and income inequality. In addition, we analyze the relationship between income redistribution (measured by the ratio of the income distribution resulting from market processes and the income distribution after redistribution) and ethno-linguistic fractionalization. We find that the impact of ethno-linguistic fractionalization on income redistribution is conditional on the level of economic freedom: countries that have a high degree of fractionalization have less income redistribution, while capitalist countries that have a low degree of fractionalization have more income distribution.
    Keywords: D31 ; D63 ; F02 ; O11 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; income inequality ; redistribution ; economic freedom ; ethno-linguistic fractionalization
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-20
    Description: We investigate whether elected members of the United Nations Security Council receive favorable treatment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), analyzing panel data on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the period of 1992 to 2008. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions attached to the loans that they receive from the IMF. We conclude that conditionality is softer for these countries because the major shareholders of the IMF desire influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; Voting ; Aid ; Conditionality ; Nationalstaat ; Regierung ; Mitgliedschaft ; Internationale Organisation ; Glaubwürdigkeit ; Länderrisiko ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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