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  • 1
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2018-08-07
    Description: Immigration is a possible instrument for offsetting longer-run adverse effects of population aging on per capita income. Our "laboratory" is a fictional country Alpha to which we assign demographic characteristics typical of a country experiencing population aging. Simulations indicate that a very high immigration rate with heavy concentration in younger working ages might be required to keep per capita income from declining. More rapid productivity growth would also offset population aging as would higher rates of labour participation of older people. Longer life expectancy, taken alone, would lower per capita real income, as would higher fertility rates.
    Keywords: J10 ; J11 ; J18 ; ddc:330 ; immigration ; per capita income ; population aging ; age structure ; simulation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2018-08-07
    Description: A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialised countries throughout the world and will continue well into the future. We provide a framework for isolating the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP, employ the framework in calculations for twenty OECD countries, and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. We consider also some labour-related changes that might provide offsets, for comparison with productivity.
    Keywords: J1 ; J11 ; O4 ; ddc:330 ; population aging ; productivity ; industrialised countries ; projections
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2018-08-07
    Description: Immigrants can mix with the population of a receiving country in various ways. We consider demographic mixing by which we mean cross-mating, and more particularly the bearing of children where one parent is of immigrant descent and the other is not - cross-parenting as we term it. We consider a hypothetical country with an initial stable population and introduce immigration. The results of cross-parenting are taken into account by identifying three separate populations within the overall total: non-immigrant population, immigrant population (immigrants and their descendants), and mixed population. We develop a stylized model to track the three populations, with interest focusing in particular on how the proportion of mixed population changes through time as it moves toward a steady state. The model has a stable projection (Leslie) matrix that holds for all three populations and moves them forward from generation to generation as each evolves in its own way. As cross-parenting occurs the resulting progeny are transferred from the other populations to the mixed population. The pattern of cross-parenting is determined in the first instance by a matrix representing preferences among the three populations and alternative preferential patterns are experimented with, ranging from complete isolation to indifference as to cross-parenting choices. However the matrix must be modified to recognize supply constraints imposed by the sizes of the available populations and a restricted least-squares procedure is employed to effect the modification while remaining as close as possible to the original preference pattern. Alternative rates of immigration are experimented with also.
    Keywords: F22 ; ddc:330 ; immigration ; population mixing ; cross-parenting ; demographic modeling ; parenting preferences
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Since the prevalence of many chronic health conditions increases with age we might anticipate that as the population ages the proportion with one or more such conditions would rise, as would the cost of treatment. We ask three questions: How much would the overall prevalence of chronic conditions increase in a quarter century if age-specific rates of prevalence did not change? How much would the requirements for health care resources increase in those circumstances? How much difference would it make to those requirements if people had fewer chronic conditions? We conclude that the overall prevalence rates for almost all conditions associated mostly with old age would rise by more than 25 percent and that health care requirements would grow more rapidly than the population - more than twice as rapidly in the case of hospital stays - if the rates for each age group remained constant. We conclude also that even modest reductions in the average number of conditions at each age could result in substantial savings.
    Keywords: I10 ; J14 ; ddc:330 ; chronic conditions ; aging population ; health care resources ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Ältere Arbeitskräfte ; Gesundheit ; Gesundheitskosten ; Kanada
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Measures of retirement that take a cohort perspective are appealing since retirement patterns may change, and it would be useful to have consistent measures that would make it possible to compare retirement patterns over time and between countries or regions. We propose and implement two measures. One is based on administrative income tax records and relates to actual cohorts; the other is based on a time-series of cross sectional labour force surveys and relates to pseudo-cohorts. We conclude that while the tax-based observations for actual cohorts provide a richer data set for analysis, the estimated measures of retirement and transition from work to retirement based on the two data sets are quite similar.
    Keywords: J14 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; measures of retirement ; cohort perspective ; Altersgrenze ; Berechnung ; Kohortenanalyse
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Canadians are living longer and retiring younger. When combined with the aging of the baby boom generation, that means that the inactive portion of the population is increasing and there are concerns about possibly large increases in the burden of support on those who are younger. We model the impact of continued future gains in life expectancy on the size of the population that receives public pension benefits. We pay special attention to possible increases in the age of eligibility and the pension contribution rate that would maintain the publicly financed component of the retirement income security system.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; age of pension eligibility ; pension burden ; Flexible Altersgrenze ; Sterblichkeit ; Sozialpolitik ; Kosten ; Kanada
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: If retirement means a substantial and sustained reduction in the time spent working for pay or profit, measurement requires a definition of substantial and sufficient observations of the same individuals to determine whether a transition from working to retired status has occurred. Using the Statistics Canada Longitudinal Administrative Databank, a 20 percent sample of the individual income tax returns of all tax filers since 1980, we identify those with significant labour force attachment at ages 50-52, and follow them year by year. If retired means having no income from employment, the median age of retirement is about 63 for men, 62 for women. That is true for all cohorts. If earning up to half of one's previous employment income is deemed consistent with being retired, the median age is about 60 for both men and women. Results obtained in this way are consistent with calculations based on Labour Force Survey data.
    Keywords: J26 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; retirement ; older workers ; Ältere Arbeitskräfte ; Altersgrenze ; Rentner ; Altersgruppe ; Kanada
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In this article we analyse the rates at which those admitted to hospital with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) receive aggressive treatment, assess how those rates have changed over time, and ask whether there is evidence of age discrepancies. Estimates made on the basis of data from an administrative database that includes discharges from all acute care hospitals in Ontario for selected years, from 1995 to 2005, indicate that there are strong and persistent age patterns in the application of medical technology. Results showed that to be true even after controlling for the higher rates of co-morbidities among older patients and variations across hospitals in practice patterns.
    Keywords: I11 ; ddc:330 ; treatment of AMI ; age pattern ; Gesundheitsversorgung ; Krankenhaus ; Altersgruppe ; Kanada
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: [OBJECTIVE] The paper explores the population effects of male preference stopping rules and of alternative combinations of fertility rates and male-biased birth sex ratios. [METHODS] The "laboratory" is a closed, stable population with five age groups and a dynamic process represented by a compact Leslie matrix. The new element is sex-selective abortion. We consider nine stopping rules, one with no male preference, two with male preference but no abortion, and six with male preference and the availability of abortion to achieve a desired number of male births. We calculate the probability distribution over the number of births and number of male births for each rule and work out the effects at the population level if the rule were adopted by all women bearing children. We then assess the impact of alternative combinations of fertility rates and male-biased sex ratios on the population. [RESULTS] In the absence of sex-selective abortion, stopping rules generally have no effect on the male/female birth proportions in the population, although they can alter the fertility rate, age distribution, and rate of growth. When sex-selective abortion is introduced the effect on male/female proportions may be considerable, and other effects quite different as well. The contribution of this paper is the quantification of effects that might have been predictable in general but which require model-based calculations to see how large they could be. As the paper shows, they could in fact be very large; a population in which sex-selective abortion was widely practised could look quite different from what it would otherwise be.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; birth sex probabilities ; male preference ; population implications
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The paper considers age-sex patterns of fluctuation of employment, unemployment, labour force participation, hours worked per employee, and hours worked per capita. The patterns are extracted (by regression) from annual data for the period 1976-2011 and expressed in the form of group-to-aggregate elasticities. An additive relationship among the elasticities is noted and used to decompose the variation of per capita hours worked into source contributions. On that basis, participation and employee hours are found to be significant contributors generally over the working age range, but especially among young workers. The results suggest a considerable amount of "hidden" unemployment during cyclical downturns.
    Keywords: J21 ; J20 ; ddc:330 ; cyclical labour force behaviour ; age-sex unemployment and employment rates ; hidden unemployment
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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