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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Simulation of Monsoon Disturbances in a GCM (2000)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 157 (2000), S. 1509-1539 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key Words: Indian summer monsoon, monsoon disturbances, general circulation model, Bay of Bengal.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —A large part of the rainfall over India during the summer monsoon season (June–September) is contributed by synoptic scale disturbances such as monsoon depressions. To study the evolution of such disturbances in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM), the Hadley Centre AGCM (HadAM2b) has been integrated for 15 summer monsoons (1979–1993) and the output was examined for the presence of synoptic scale disturbances such as monsoon depressions, low pressure areas, land lows and land depressions over the Indian summer monsoon region. The atmospheric initial condition for each of these integrations was of 23rd May and observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) were described as a boundary condition.¶Although the horizontal resolution of the AGCM used in this study is only 2.5°× 3.75° lat. long., the model is able to simulate a few monsoon disturbances. The important features of these simulated disturbances are presented. The features of the simulated disturbances are realistic. The morphologies of a well simulated monsoon depression and a simulated low pressure area are presented as examples. The frequency of the simulated monsoon depressions is less than the climatological frequency of the depressions during all four monsoon months.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/PL00001131
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network (2000)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 16 (2000), S. 291-302 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on a seasonal time scales has been attempted by various research groups using different techniques including artificial neural networks. The prediction of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales is not only scientifically challenging but is also important for planning and devising agricultural strategies. This article describes the artificial neural network (ANN) technique with error- back-propagation algorithm to provide prediction (hindcast) of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ANN technique is applied to the five time series of June, July, August, September monthly means and seasonal mean (June + July + August + September) rainfall from 1871 to 1994 based on Parthasarathy data set. The previous five years values from all the five time-series were used to train the ANN to predict for the next year. The details of the models used are discussed. Various statistics are calculated to examine the performance of the models and it is found that the models could be used as a forecasting tool on seasonal and monthly time scales. It is observed by various researchers that with the passage of time the relationships between various predictors and Indian monsoon are changing, leading to changes in monsoon predictability. This issue is discussed and it is found that the monsoon system inherently has a decadal scale variation in predictability.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050328
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Probable maximum precipitation for a 2-day duration over the Indian Peninsula (1992)
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 45 (1992), S. 277-283 
    Details
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary For the purpose of providing information to hydrologists for designing costly and large hydraulic structures, estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for a 2-day duration for stations in the Indian Peninsula lying between 8° N to 20° N were calculated using the Hershfield statistical techniqe. Maximum annual 2-day rainfall data of 80 years from 1901 for 131 stations in the region were used. In order to obtain values of PMP, an enveloping frequency factor (k m ) curve based on the actual rainfall data of stations in the region was developed. The enveloping curve was then utilised to estimate 2-day PMP values of all the 131 stations. Based on these PMP estimates, a generalised chart showing the spatial distribution of 2-day PMP was prepared. It was found that 2-day PMP estimates over the Indian peninsula varied from 40 to 95 cm and the average ratio of 2-day PMP to the highest observed 2-day rainfall was found to be 1.76.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00865518
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Some features of the periods contributing specified percentages of rainfall to annual total in Kerala, India (1989)
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 39 (1989), S. 160-170 
    Details
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Unter Heranziehung der Tagesniederschlagsdaten von 75 Stationen über einen Zeitraum von 80 Jahren (1901–1980) untersucht vorliegende Studie Langzeitschwankungen folgender Parameter jener Perioden, die für jede der beiden Niederschlagszonen Nord-Kerala und Süd-Kerala 2, 5, 10, 20–90 und 95% zum gesamten Jahresniederschlag beitragen: 1. Anfangsdatum, 2. Enddatum, 3. Dauer der Niederschlagsperiode, 4. die Niederschlagssumme der Periode (die einem fixen Prozentsatz des Jahresniederschlags entspricht) und 5. die Charakteristik der Niederschlagszeitverteilung, die mittels Olivers Niederschlagskonzentrations-Index (PCI) unter Heranziehung der Tagesniederschlagsdaten der behandelten Niederschlagsperioden quantifiziert wurde. Für die meisten Niederschlagsperioden gilt, daß die Zeitreihen der Anfangs- und Enddaten als auch der Dauer homogen und zufällig verteilt sind und im allgemeinen der Normalverteilung folgen. Die unterschiedlichen PCI-Reihen von Nord-Kerala und der Jahresniederschlagsserien von Süd-Kerala weisen einen deutlich abnehmenden Trend auf, Indikatoren für die bedeutenden Veränderungen des Hydroklimas in Kerala. Die Studie behandelt mögliche Veränderungen der Süd-West-Monsun-Zirkulation entlang der indischen Westküste und die ausgedehnte Entwaldung in Kerala, die diese Niederschlagsveränderungen bewirkt haben könnten.
    Notes: Summary Based on daily rainfall data over a period of 80 years (1901–1980) taken at 75 stations, this paper reports interannual and long term fluctuations of the following parameters of the periods contributing each of 2, 5, 10, 20–90 and 95% rainfall to annual total over each of North Kerala and South Kerala rainfall subregions of India: (i) the starting date, (ii) the ending date, (iii) the length of the rainfall period or duration, (iv) the total rainfall (which is a fixed percentage of the annual total) of the rainfall period, and (v) the rainfall time-distribution characteristic which has been quantified by computing Oliver's precipitation concentration index (PCI) using daily rainfall data of the concerned rainfall period. For most of the rainfall periods, the time series of starting and ending dates and length are homogeneous and random, and tend to observe the normal probability distribution. The different PCI series of North Kerala and the annual rainfall series of South Kerala show significantly decreasing trend which are indicative of considerable change in the hydroclimatic environment of Kerala. Possible changes in the southwest monsoon circulation along the west coast of India and excessive deforestation in Kerala which might have caused these rainfall changes are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00868311
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Sensitivity of a GCM Simulation of two Contrasting Indian Monsoons to SST Anomaly Distributions (1999)
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 63 (1999), S. 57-64 
    Details
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary  One of the major forcings for the interannual variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon is the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño years are characterized by a negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and decreased monsoon rainfall over India leading to drought conditions. On the other hand, La Nina years are characterized by a positive SOI and generally good monsoon conditions over India. The monsoon ENSO relation is not a consistent one. The monsoons of 1991 and 1994 are good examples. The spring SOI was the same (−1.3) during both years. However, the All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) was 91.4% of normal in 1991 and 110% in 1994. Though the SOI was same during the spring of both years, the spatial distribution of SSTs was different. In the present study, the impacts of different SST distributions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, on the monsoons of 1991 and 1994 have been examined, to assess the UKMO-unified model’s sensitivity of SST. It is observed that the simulated monsoon was much stronger in 1994 than in 1991, in terms of precipitation and circulation. The wind and the Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) simulated by the model are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses data, while precipitation is compared with Xie-Arkin merged rainfall data.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s007040050091
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Trends in the annual extreme rainfall events of 1 to 3 days duration over India (1994)
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 48 (1994), S. 227-237 
    Details
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary In this paper, the annual extreme rainfall series in the time scale of 1 to 3 days duration at 316 stations, well distributed over the Indian region, covering 80-years of rainfall data from 1901 to 1980 were analysed for trend and persistence using standard statistical tests. It has been found that the annual extreme rainfall records of most stations are free from trend and persistence. However, the extreme rainfall series at stations over the west coast north of 12°N and at some stations to the east of the Western Ghats over the central parts of the Peninsula showed a significant increasing trend at 95% level of confidence. Stations over the southern Peninsula and over the lower Ganga valley have been found to exhibit a decreasing trend at the same level of significance. The data series of the stations which showed trends were subjected to a 10-year moving average and the resulting smoothed series have been discussed. It may be said that this increasing or decreasing trend in the annual extreme rainfall events at a few places will have tremendous implications in the hydrologic studies and dam design projects.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00867053
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Estimation of probable maximum precipitation for a 2-day duration: Part 2 — north Indian region (1994)
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 49 (1994), S. 77-84 
    Details
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary In a previous study the authors have estimated the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for a 2-day duration using Hershfield's formulaX PMP =X n +k m σ n for stations in the southern Indian region. In this paper, the study is extended to estimate the PMP for stations in the north Indian region, north of 20°N. Maximum annual 2-day rainfall data for an 80-year period, from 1901, were obtained for 286 stations in the region. A mathematical relationship between the frequency factor (k m ) and the mean annual extreme rainfall (X n ) was developed to bek m = 18.15 exp (−0.0448X n ). This equation was used to obtaink m for different values ofX n and, subsequently, to estimate 2-day PMP values for the 286 stations. Using these PMP estimates, a generalised chart was prepared, showing the spatial distribution of 2-day PMP. It was found that 2-day PMP over the north Indian region varied from 60 cm to 130 cm, and the average ratio of the 2-day PMP to the highest observed 2-day rainfall was found to be 1.91. The results show that there have been instances when almost 2-day point PMP have occurred at some of the stations in the region. These results indicate that the statistically estimated PMP rainall are not therefore, mere theoretical estimates, but they can occur under optimum meteorological conditions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00868192
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  • 8
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    Letter (1989)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 1989-05-01
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 9
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    some aspects of daily rainfall distribution over India during the south-west monsoon season (1990)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 1990-04-01
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 10
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    Statistical distribution of daily rainfall and its association with the coefficient of variation of rainfall series (1989)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 1989-09-01
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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