ALBERT

Description: Salty and warm Indian Ocean waters enter the South Atlantic via the Agulhas leakage, south of Africa. Model simulations and proxy evidence of Agulhas leakage strengthening during glacial terminations led to the hypothesis that it was an important modulator of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Yet, the fate of the leakage salinity and temperature anomalies remains undocumented beyond the southern tip of Africa. Downstream of the leakage, new paleoceanographic evidence from the central Walvis Ridge (southeast Atlantic) shows that salinity increased at the thermocline, and less so at the surface, during glacial termination II. Thermocline salinity change coincided with higher frequency of Agulhas rings passage at the core location and with salinity maxima in the Agulhas leakage area, suggesting that leakage waters were incorporated in the Atlantic circulation through the thermocline. Hydrographic changes at the Walvis Ridge and in the leakage area display a distinct two-step structure, with a reversal at ca. 134 ka. This matched a wet interlude within the East Asia weak monsoon interval of termination II, and a short-lived North Atlantic warming. Such concurrence points to a Bølling-Allerød–like recovery of the Atlantic circulation amidst termination II, with a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Southern Hemisphere westerlies, and attendant curtailment of the interocean connection south of Africa.

Description: 〈p〉The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG.〈/p〉

Description: With the projected changes in climate, population and socioeconomic activity located in flood-prone areas, the global assessment of the flood risk is essential to inform climate change policy and disaster risk management. Whilst global flood risk models exist for this purpose, the accuracy of their results is greatly limited by the lack of information on the current standard of protection to floods, with studies either neglecting this aspect or resorting to crude assumptions. Here we present a first global database of FLOod PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which comprises information in the form of the flood return period associated with protection measures, at different spatial scales. FLOPROS comprises three layers of information, and combines them into one consistent database. The Design layer contains empirical information about the actual standard of existing protection already in place, while the Policy layer and the Model layer are proxies for such protection standards, and serve to increase the spatial coverage of the database. The Policy layer contains information on protection standards from policy regulations; and the Model layer uses a validated modeling approach to calculate protection standards. Based on this first version of FLOPROS, we suggest a number of strategies to further extend and increase the resolution of the database. Moreover, as the database is intended to be continually updated, while flood protection standards are changing with new interventions, FLOPROS requires input from the flood risk community. We therefore invite researchers and practitioners to contribute information to this evolving database by corresponding to the authors.

Description: A review of selected, well-dated, multiproxy paleoclimatic records (lacustrine, dendrochronological, geomorphological) characterizes the main environmental changes occurred in the Southern Pyrenees during the last millennium. Warmer and relatively arid conditions prevailed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA,

Description: A maximum in the strength of Agulhas leakage has been registered at the interface between the Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T-II). This presumably transported the salt and heat necessary for maintaining the Atlantic circulation at rates similar to the present day. However, it was never shown whether these waters were effectively incorporated into the South Atlantic gyre, or whether they retroflected into the Indian and/or Southern oceans. To resolve this question, we investigate the presence of paleo Agulhas rings from a sediment core on the central Walvis Ridge, almost 1800 km farther into the Atlantic Basin than previously studied. Analysis of a 60 yr data set from the global-nested INALT01 model allows us to relate density perturbations at the depth of the thermocline to the passage of individual rings over the core site. Using this relation from the numerical model as the basis for a proxy, we generate a time series of variability of individual Globorotalia truncatulinoides δ18O. We reveal high levels of pycnocline depth variability at the site, suggesting enhanced numbers of Agulhas rings moving into the South Atlantic Gyre around T-II. Our record closely follows the published quantifications of Agulhas leakage from the east of the Cape Basin, and thus shows that Indian Ocean waters entered the South Atlantic circulation. This provides crucial support for the view of a prominent role of the Agulhas leakage in the shift from a glacial to an interglacial mode of the Atlantic circulation.

Description: A maximum in the strength of Agulhas Leakage has been registered at the interface between Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T II), presumably transporting the salt and heat necessary to maintain the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at rates similar to the present day. However, it was never shown whether these were effectively incorporated in the South Atlantic gyre, or whether they retroflected into the Indian and/or Southern Oceans. To solve this question, we investigate the presence of paleo Agulhas rings from a sediment core on the central Walvis Ridge, almost 1800 km farther into the Atlantic basin than previously studied. Analysis of a 20 yr dataset from a global ocean circulation model allows us to relate density perturbations, at the depth of the thermocline, to the passage of individual rings over the core site. Using this relation from the numerical model as the basis for a proxy, we generate a time series of δ18O variability of Globorotalia truncatulinoides single specimens, revealing high levels of pycnocline depth variability at the site, suggesting enhanced numbers of Agulhas rings moving into the South Atlantic gyre around and before T II. Our record closely follows the published quantifications of Agulhas Leakage from the east of the Cape Basin, and thus shows that Indian Ocean waters entered the South Atlantic circulation. This provides crucial support to the view of a prominent role of the Agulhas Leakage in the shift from a glacial to an interglacial mode of AMOC.

Description: This paper reviews multi-proxy paleoclimatic reconstructions with robust age-control derived from lacustrine, dendrochronological and geomorphological records and characterizes the main environmental changes that occurred in the Southern Pyrenees during the last millennium. Warmer and relatively arid conditions prevailed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ca. 900–1300 AD), with a significant development of xerophytes and Mediterranean vegetation and limited deciduous tree formations (mesophytes). The Little Ice Age (LIA, 1300–1800 AD) was generally colder and moister, with an expansion of deciduous taxa and cold-adapted montane conifers. Two major phases occurred within this period: (i) a transition MCA–LIA, characterized by fluctuating, moist conditions and relatively cold temperatures (ca. 1300 and 1600 AD); and (ii) a second period, characterized by the coldest and most humid conditions, coinciding with maximum (recent) glacier advances (ca. 1600–1800 AD). Glaciers retreated after the LIA when warmer and more arid conditions dominated, interrupted by a short-living cooling episode during the late 19th to early 20th centuries. Some records suggest a response to solar activity with colder and slightly moister conditions during solar minima. Centennial-scale hydrological fluctuations are in phase with reconstructions of NAO variability, which appears to be one of the main climate mechanisms influencing rainfall variations in the region during the last millennium.

Description: A maximum in the strength of Agulhas leakage has been registered at the interface between the Indian and South Atlantic oceans during glacial Termination II (T-II). This presumably transported the salt and heat necessary for maintaining the Atlantic circulation at rates similar to the present day. However, it was never shown whether these waters were effectively incorporated into the South Atlantic gyre, or whether they retroflected into the Indian and/or Southern oceans. To resolve this question, we investigate the presence of paleo Agulhas rings from a sediment core on the central Walvis Ridge, almost 1800 km farther into the Atlantic Basin than previously studied. Analysis of a 60 yr data set from the global-nested INALT01 model allows us to relate density perturbations at the depth of the thermocline to the passage of individual rings over the core site. Using this relation from the numerical model as the basis for a proxy, we generate a time series of variability of individual Globorotalia truncatulinoides delta O-18. We reveal high levels of pycnocline depth variability at the site, suggesting enhanced numbers of Agulhas rings moving into the South Atlantic Gyre around T-II. Our record closely follows the published quantifications of Agulhas leakage from the east of the Cape Basin, and thus shows that Indian Ocean waters entered the South Atlantic circulation. This provides crucial support for the view of a prominent role of the Agulhas leakage in the shift from a glacial to an interglacial mode of the Atlantic circulation.

Description: Advances in the field of extreme event attribution allow to estimate how anthropogenic global warming affects the odds of individual climate disasters, such as river floods. Extreme event attribution typically uses precipitation as proxy for flooding. However, hydrological processes and antecedent conditions make the relation between precipitation and floods highly nonlinear. In addition, hydrology acknowledges that changes in floods can be strongly driven by changes in land-cover and by other human interventions in the hydrological system, such as irrigation and construction of dams. These drivers can either amplify, dampen or outweigh the effect of climate change on local flood occurrence. Neglecting these processes and drivers can lead to incorrect flood attribution. Including flooding explicitly, that is, using data and models of hydrology and hydrodynamics that can represent the relevant hydrological processes, will lead to more robust event attribution, and will account for the role of other drivers beyond climate change. Existing attempts are incomplete. We argue that the existing probabilistic framework for extreme event attribution can be extended to explicitly include floods for near-natural cases, where flood occurrence was unlikely to be influenced by land-cover change and human hydrological interventions. However, for the many cases where this assumption is not valid, a multi-driver framework for conditional event attribution needs to be established. Explicit flood attribution will have to grapple with uncertainties from lack of observations and compounding from the many processes involved. Further, it requires collaboration between climatologists and hydrologists, and promises to better address the needs of flood risk management.