ALBERT

Description: The purpose of this study is to describe a new algorithm based on a Neural Network approach (Passive microwave Neural network Precipitation Retrieval – PNPR) for precipitation rate estimation from AMSU/MHS observations, and to provide examples of its performance for specific case studies over the European/Mediterranean area. The algorithm optimally exploits the different characteristics of AMSU-A and MHS channels, and their combinations, including the TB differences of the 183.31 channels, with the goal of having a single neural network for different types of background surfaces (vegetated land, snow covered surface, coast and ocean). The training of the neural network is based on the use of a cloud-radiation database, built from cloud-resolving model simulations coupled to a radiative transfer model, representative of the European and Mediterranean basin precipitation climatology. The algorithm provides also the phase of the precipitation and a pixel-based confidence index for the evaluation of the reliability of the retrieval. Applied to different weather conditions in Europe, the algorithm shows good performance both in the identification of precipitation areas and in the retrieval of precipitation, particularly valuable over the extremely variable environmental and meteorological conditions of the region. In particular, the PNPR is particularly efficient in: (1) screening and retrieval of precipitation over different background surfaces, (2) identification and retrieval of heavy rain for convective events, (3) identification of precipitation over cold/iced background, with some uncertainties affecting light precipitation. In this paper, examples of good agreement of precipitation pattern and intensity with ground-based data (radar and rain gauges) are provided for four different case studies. The algorithm has been developed in order to be easily tailored to new radiometers as they become available (such as the cross-track scanning Suomi NPP ATMS) and it is suitable for operational use as it is computationally very efficient. PNPR has been recently extended for applications to Africa and Southern Atlantic regions, and an extended validation over these regions (using two years of data acquired by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar for comparison) is subject of a paper in preparation. The PNPR is currently used operationally within the EUMETSAT Hydrology Satellite Application Facility (H-SAF) to provide instantaneous precipitation from passive microwave cross-track scanning radiometers. It undergoes routinely through extensive validation over Europe carried out by the H-SAF Precipitation Products Validation Group.

Description: A novel algorithm for the detection of precipitation is described and tested. The algorithm is applicable to any modern passive microwave radiometer on board polar satellites independently of the observation geometry and channel frequency assortment. The algorithm is based on the application of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and on the definition of a threshold to be applied to the resulting linear combination of the brightness temperatures in all available channels. The algorithm has been developed using a two-year dataset of co-located SSMIS and TRMM-PR measurements and AMSU-MHS and TRMM-PR measurements. This dataset was partitioned into 4 classes depending on the background surface emissivity (vegetated land, arid land, ocean, and coast) and the same procedure was applied for each surface class. In this paper we describe the procedure and we evaluate the results in comparison with many well-known algorithm for the detection of precipitation. The novel CCA algorithm show a small rate of false alarms and superior detection capability, it can efficiently detect (POD between 0.53 and 0.70) minimum rain rate varying from 0.15 mm h−1 (AMSU over ocean) to 0.40 (SSMIS over coast) with the remarkable result of 0.23 mm h−1 over arid land surface. The total amount of precipitation that the CCA algorithm can detect is around 80% over Ocean and Vegetated land and between 68 and 75% over coast and arid land.

Description: Mass accumulation is a key geophysical parameter in understanding the Antarctic climate and its role in the global system. The local mass variation is driven by a number of different mechanisms: the deposition of snow and ice crystals on the surface from the atmosphere is generally modified by strong surface winds and variations in temperature and humidity at the ground, making it difficult to measure directly the accumulation by a sparse network of ground based instruments. Moreover, the low cloud total water/ice content and the varying radiative properties of the ground pose problems in the retrieval of precipitation from passive space-borne sensors at all frequencies. Finally, numerical models, despite their high spatial and temporal resolution, show discordant results and are difficult to be validated using ground-based measurements. A significant improvement in the knowledge of the atmospheric contribution to the mass balance over Antarctica is possible by using active space-borne instruments, such as the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on board the low earth orbit CloudSat satellite, launched in 2006 and still operating. The radar measures the vertical profile of reflectivity at 94 GHz (sensitive to small ice particles) providing narrow vertical cross-sections of clouds along the satellite track. The aim of this work is to show that, after accounting for the characteristics of precipitation and the effect of surface on reflectivity in Antarctica, the CPR can retrieve snowfall rates on a single event temporal scale. Furthermore, the CPR, despite its limited temporal and spatial sampling capabilities, also effectively observes the annual snowfall cycle in this region. Two years of CloudSat data over Antarctica are analyzed and converted in water equivalent snowfall rate. Two different approaches for precipitation estimates are considered in this work. The results are analyzed in terms of annual and monthly averages, as well as in terms of instantaneous values. The derived snowfall maps are compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis and with in situ measurements, showing overall agreement. The effects of coastlines in enhancing precipitation rates and cloud precipitation efficiency are recognized. A significant seasonal signal also affects the averaged spatial extent of snowfall patterns. A comparison with snow accumulation ground measurements of single snowfall events shows consistency with the CPR retrievals: all the retrieved snowfall episodes correspond to an increase of snow accumulation at the ground, while several episodes of increase of snow stack height are not related to significant retrieved snowfall rate, likely indicating the local contribution of blowing snow. The results show that CPR can be a valuable source of snowfall rate data in Antarctica that can be used at different temporal scales, providing support to the sparse network of ground-based instruments both for numerical model validation and climatological studies.

Description: This paper shows the results of a tailored version of a previously published methodology, designed to simulate lightning activity, implemented into the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The method gives the flash density at the resolution of the RAMS grid-scale allowing for a detailed analysis of the evolution of simulated lightning activity. The system is applied in detail to two case studies occurred over the Lazio Region, in Central Italy. Simulations are compared with the lightning activity detected by the LINET network. The cases refer to two thunderstorms of different intensity. Results show that the model predicts reasonably well both cases and that the lightning activity is well reproduced especially for the most intense case. However, there are errors in timing and positioning of the convection, whose magnitude depends on the case study, which mirrors in timing and positioning errors of the lightning distribution. To assess objectively the performance of the methodology, standard scores are presented for four additional case studies. Scores show the ability of the methodology to simulate the daily lightning activity for different spatial scales and for two different minimum thresholds of flash number density. The performance decreases at finer spatial scales and for higher thresholds. The comparison of simulated and observed lighting activity is an immediate and powerful tool to assess the model ability to reproduce the intensity and the evolution of the convection. This shows the importance of the use of computationally efficient lightning schemes, such as the one described in this paper, in forecast models.

Description: In the first two parts of this study we have presented a performance analysis of our new Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) satellite precipitation retrieval algorithm on various convective and stratiform rainfall case studies verified with precision radar ground truth data, and an exposition of the algorithm's detailed design in conjunction with a proof-of-concept analysis vis-à-vis its theoretical underpinnings. In this third part of the study, we present the underlying analysis used to identify what we refer to as the optimal metrological and geophysical tags, which are the optimally effective atmospheric and geographic parameters that are used to refine the selection of candidate microphysical profiles used for the Bayesian retrieval. These tags enable extending beyond the conventional Cloud Radiation Database (CRD) algorithm by invoking meteorological-geophysical guidance, drawn from a simulated database, which affect and are in congruence with the observed precipitation states. This is guidance beyond the restrictive control provided by only simulated radiative transfer equation (RTE) model-derived database brightness temperature (TB) vector proximity information in seeking to relate physically consistent precipitation profile solutions to individual satellite-observed TB vectors. The first two parts of the study have rigorously demonstrated that the optimal tags effectively mitigate against solution ambiguity, where use of only a CRD framework (TB guidance only) leads to pervasive non-uniqueness problems in finding rainfall solutions. Alternatively, a CDRD framework (TB + tag guidance) mitigates against non-uniqueness problems through improved constraints. It remains to show how these optimal tags are identified. By use of three statistical analysis procedures applied to a database from 120 North American atmospheric simulations of precipitating storms (independent of the 60 simulations for the European-Mediterranean basin region used in the Parts 1 and 2 studies), we examine 25 separate dynamical-thermodynamical-hydrological (DST) and geophysical parameters for their relationships to rainfall variables – specifically, surface rain rate and columnar liquid/ice/total water paths of precipitating hydrometeors. The analysis identifies seven optimal parameter tags which exceed all others in the strengths of their correlations to the precipitation variables but also have observational counterparts in the operational global forecast model outputs. The seven optimal tags are (1 and 2) vertical velocities at 700 and 500 hPa; (3) equivalent potential temperature at surface; (4) convective available potential energy; (5) moisture flux 50 hPa above surface; (6) freezing level height; and (7) terrain height, i.e., surface height.

Description: This paper shows the results of a tailored version of a previously published methodology, designed to simulate lightning activity, implemented into the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The method gives the flash density at the resolution of the RAMS grid scale allowing for a detailed analysis of the evolution of simulated lightning activity. The system is applied in detail to two case studies occurred over the Lazio Region, in Central Italy. Simulations are compared with the lightning activity detected by the LINET network. The cases refer to two thunderstorms of different intensity which occurred, respectively, on 20 October 2011 and on 15 October 2012. The number of flashes simulated (observed) over Lazio is 19435 (16231) for the first case and 7012 (4820) for the second case, and the model correctly reproduces the larger number of flashes that characterized the 20 October 2011 event compared to the 15 October 2012 event. There are, however, errors in timing and positioning of the convection, whose magnitude depends on the case study, which mirrors in timing and positioning errors of the lightning distribution. For the 20 October 2011 case study, spatial errors are of the order of a few tens of kilometres and the timing of the event is correctly simulated. For the 15 October 2012 case study, the spatial error in the positioning of the convection is of the order of 100 km and the event has a longer duration in the simulation than in the reality. To assess objectively the performance of the methodology, standard scores are presented for four additional case studies. Scores show the ability of the methodology to simulate the daily lightning activity for different spatial scales and for two different minimum thresholds of flash number density. The performance decreases at finer spatial scales and for higher thresholds. The comparison of simulated and observed lighting activity is an immediate and powerful tool to assess the model ability to reproduce the intensity and the evolution of the convection. This shows the importance of using computationally efficient lightning schemes, such as the one described in this paper, in forecast models.

Description: The development phase (DP) of the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) led to the design and implementation of several precipitation products, after 5 yr (2005–2010) of activity. Presently, five precipitation estimation algorithms based on data from passive microwave and infrared sensors, on board geostationary and sun-synchronous platforms, function in operational mode at the H-SAF hosting institute to provide near real-time precipitation products at different spatial and temporal resolutions. In order to evaluate the precipitation product accuracy, a validation activity has been established since the beginning of the project. A Precipitation Product Validation Group (PPVG) works in parallel with the development of the estimation algorithms with two aims: to provide the algorithm developers with indications to refine algorithms and products, and to evaluate the error structure to be associated with the operational products. In this paper, the framework of the PPVG is presented: (a) the characteristics of the ground reference data available to H-SAF (i.e. radar and rain gauge networks), (b) the agreed upon validation strategy settled among the eight European countries participating in the PPVG, and (c) the steps of the validation procedures. The quality of the reference data is discussed, and the efforts for its improvement are outlined, with special emphasis on the definition of a ground radar quality map and on the implementation of a suitable rain gauge interpolation algorithm. The work done during the H-SAF development phase has led the PPVG to converge into a common validation procedure among the members, taking advantage of the experience acquired by each one of them in the validation of H-SAF products. The methodology is presented here, indicating the main steps of the validation procedure (ground data quality control, spatial interpolation, up-scaling of radar data vs. satellite grid, statistical score evaluation, case study analysis). Finally, an overview of the results is presented, focusing on the monthly statistical indicators, referred to the satellite product performances over different seasons and areas.

Description: The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) was established by the EUMETSAT Council on 3 July 2005, starting activity on 1 September 2005. The Italian Meteorological Service serves as Leading Entity on behalf of twelve European member countries. H-SAF products include precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters. Some products are based only on satellite observations, while other products are based on the assimilation of satellite measurements/products into numerical models. In addition to product development and generation, H-SAF includes a product validation program and a hydrological validation program that are coordinated, respectively, by the Italian Department of Civil Protection and by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The National Center of Aeronautical Meteorology and Climatology (CNMCA) of the Italian Air Force is responsible for operational product generation and dissemination. In this paper we describe the H-SAF precipitation algorithms and products, which have been developed by the Italian Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (in collaboration with the international community) and by CNMCA during the Development Phase (DP, 2005–2010) and the first Continuous Development and Operations Phase (CDOP-1, 2010–2012). The precipitation products are based on passive microwave measurements obtained from radiometers onboard different sun-synchronous low-Earth-orbiting satellites (especially, the SSM/I and SSMIS radiometers onboard DMSP satellites and the AMSU-A + AMSU-B/MHS radiometer suites onboard EPS-MetOp and NOAA-POES satellites), as well as on combined infrared/passive microwave measurements in which the passive microwave precipitation estimates are used in conjunction with SEVIRI images from the geostationary MSG satellite. Moreover, the H-SAF product generation and dissemination chain and independent product validation activities are described. Also, the H-SAF program and its associated activities that currently are being carried out or are planned to be performed within the second CDOP phase (CDOP-2, 2012–2017) are presented in some detail. Insofar as CDOP-2 is concerned, it is emphasized that all algorithms and processing schemes will be improved and enhanced so as to extend them to satellites that will be operational within this decade – particularly the geostationary Meteosat Third Generation satellites and the low-Earth-orbiting Core Observatory of the international Global Precipitation Measurement mission. Finally, the role of H-SAF within the international science and operations community is explained.

Description: Precipitation retrievals based on measurements from microwave (MW) radiometers onboard low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites can reach high level of accuracy – especially regarding convective precipitation. At the present stage though, these observations cannot provide satisfactory coverage of the evolution of intense and rapid precipitating systems. As a result, the obtained precipitation retrievals are often of limited use for many important applications – especially in supporting authorities for flood alerts and weather warnings. To tackle this problem, over the past two decades several techniques have been developed combining accurate MW estimates with frequent infrared (IR) observations from geosynchronous (GEO) satellites, such as the European Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). In this framework, we have developed a new fast and simple precipitation retrieval technique which we call Passive Microwave – Global Convective Diagnostic, (PM-GCD). This method uses MW retrievals in conjunction with the Global Convective Diagnostic (GCD) technique which discriminates deep convective clouds based on the difference between the MSG water vapor (6.2 μm) and thermal-IR (10.8 μm) channels. Specifically, MSG observations and the GCD technique are used to identify deep convective areas. These areas are then calibrated using MW precipitation estimates based on observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) radiometers onboard operational NOAA and Eumetsat satellites, and then finally propagated in time with a simple tracking algorithm. In this paper, we describe the PM-GCD technique, analyzing its results for a case study that refers to a flood event that struck the island of Sicily in southern Italy on 1–2 October 2009.