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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-11
    Type: http://purl.org/escidoc/metadata/ves/publication-types/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2011-03-01
    Description: Limited overlap between the seismic gap and coseismic slip of the great 2010 Chile earthquake Nature Geoscience 4, 173 (2011). doi:10.1038/ngeo1073 Authors: S. Lorito, F. Romano, S. Atzori, X. Tong, A. Avallone, J. McCloskey, M. Cocco, E. Boschi & A. Piatanesi The Mw 8.8 mega-thrust earthquake and tsunami that occurred on 27 February 2010 offshore the Maule region, Chile, was not unexpected. A clearly identified seismic gap existed in an area where tectonic loading has been accumulating since the great 1835 earthquake. Here we jointly invert tsunami and geodetic data to derive a robust model for the coseismic slip distribution and induced coseismic stress changes. We compare these with past earthquakes and the preseismic locking distribution, to assess if the Maule earthquake has filled the seismic gap. We find that the main slip patch is located to the north of the gap, overlapping the rupture zone of the Mw 8.0 earthquake that occurred in 1928, with a secondary concentration of slip to the south. The seismic gap was only partially filled and a zone of high preseismic locking remains unbroken, inconsistent with the assumption that distributions of seismic rupture might be correlated with preseismic locking. Moreover, we conclude that increased stress on the unbroken patch may in turn have increased the probability of another major to great earthquake there in the near future.
    Print ISSN: 1752-0894
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-0908
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-10-27
    Description: Tsunami waveform inversion is often used to retrieve information about the causative seismic tsunami source. Tide-gauges record tsunamis routinely; however, compared to deep-ocean sensor data, tide-gauge waveform modeling is more difficult due to coarse/inaccurate local bathymetric models resulting in a time mismatch between observed and predicted waveforms. This can affect the retrieved tsunami source model, thus limiting the use of tide-gauges data. A method for nonlinear inversion with an automatic optimal time-alignment (OTA), calculated by including a time shift parameter in the cost function, is presented. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated through a series of synthetic tests and is applied as part of a joint inversion with InSAR data for the slip distribution of the 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel earthquake. The results show that without OTA the resolution on the slip model degrades significantly and that using this method for a real case strongly affects the retrieved slip pattern.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2014-07-10
    Description: The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw = 9.1) highlighted previously unobserved features for megathrust events, such as the large slip in a relatively limited area and the shallow rupture propagation. We use a Finite Element Model (FEM), taking into account the 3D geometrical and structural complexities up to the trench zone, and perform a joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data to retrieve the earthquake slip distribution. We obtain a close spatial correlation between the main deep slip patch and the local seismic velocity anomalies, and large shallow slip extending also to the North coherently with a seismically observed low-frequency radiation. These observations suggest that the friction controlled the rupture, initially confining the deeper rupture and then driving its propagation up to the trench, where it spreads laterally. These findings are relevant to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment because they may help to detect regions likely prone to rupture along the megathrust, and to constrain the probability of high slip near the trench. Our estimate of ~40 m slip value around the JFAST (Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project) drilling zone contributes to constrain the dynamic shear stress and friction coefficient of the fault obtained by temperature measurements to ~0.68 MPa and ~0.10, respectively. Scientific Reports 4 doi: 10.1038/srep05631
    Electronic ISSN: 2045-2322
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract Several great earthquakes occur on thrust faults along both subduction and continental collision zones. These events often feature a large shallow slip patch, an asymmetric pattern for the ground motion, and the static deformation between the hanging wall and footwall of the fault. From a mechanical point of view, this asymmetry can be partially explained taking into account the interaction between the fault and the seismic radiation emitted during rupture propagation and stored in the hanging wall in the vicinity of the free surface. We numerically investigate the rupture dynamics along a thrust dipping fault impacting onto the free surface at a dip angle of δ = 20°, in a 2‐D elastic model. We show how the wave interaction of the rupture with the free surface leads to a breaking of the reflection symmetry. Compared to a rupture propagating in an infinite medium, this interaction enhances the slip rate in the updip direction as an effect of the coupling between slip and normal traction around the crack front. The breaking of symmetry leads to sizeable acceleration of the rupture toward asymptotic speed with inertia acquisition, and dependence of the rupture dynamics on the level of friction along the interface might produce an interface opening over a finite length in the vicinity of the surface. We finally explore how the wave interaction drives amplification and asymmetry of the shallow slip and the vertical displacement at the surface. The described effects should be considered in various numerical approaches and in interpretation of geophysical observations.
    Print ISSN: 2169-9313
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9356
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-06-11
    Description: A probabilistic hazard analysis of tsunami generated by subaqueous volcanic explosion is applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campania, Italy). An event tree is developed to quantify the tsunami hazard due to the submarine explosions by: i) defining potential size classes of explosion magnitude on the basis of past volcanic activity in the Campi Flegrei caldera and sites in the underwater part of the caldera; ii) simulating the generation and propagation of the consequent tsunami waves able to reach the coasts of the Campania region for all combinations of tsunami-generating vents and sizes; and iii) quantifying the tsunami probability and relative uncertainty, conditional upon the occurrence of an underwater eruption at Campi Flegrei. Tsunami hazard generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions is considered crucial because of its potential high impact on the densely populated coastal areas of the Pozzuoli Bay and Gulf of Naples even if the probability for eruptions in the submarine part of the caldera is certainly low. The tsunami hazard analysis is presented using conditional hazard curves and maps, that is calculating the probability (and relative uncertainties) of exceeding given tsunami intensity thresholds (wave amplitudes at the coast), given the occurrence of a subaqueous eruption. The results indicate that a significant tsunami hazard exists in many areas of the Bay of Naples.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-02-25
    Description: Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-05-05
    Description: We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-03-04
    Description: Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-03-01
    Print ISSN: 0012-821X
    Electronic ISSN: 1385-013X
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Elsevier
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