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  • 1
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    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This study analyses the link between fiscal frameworks and their budgetary impact. We look at different features of national numerical fiscal rules in combination with fiscal councils and medium-term budgeting frameworks. We construct our own time-varying dataset for national fiscal frameworks for the period 1990-2012 covering all 27 EU Member States and estimate a dynamic panel on aggregate and disaggregated fiscal policy variables. We find strong support that numerical fiscal rules help to improve the primary balance, and that the budgetary impact can be further strengthened when supported by independent fiscal councils and an effective medium-term budgeting framework.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; H60 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal council ; fiscal framework ; Fiscal Policy ; fiscal rules ; medium term budgeting framework
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: In this paper we analyse the interaction of fiscal rules and fiscal space. We find strong evidence for fiscal rules being associated with higher fiscal space. Furthermore, the analysis shows that countries with more fiscal space tend to have higher discretionary expenditures, but that this effect is significantly reduced if fiscal rules are in place. A similar effect can be observed for the procyclicality of fiscal policy, which is significantly higher in an environment of ample fiscal space, while this difference is reduced with fiscal rules. Regarding the different types of fiscal rules, we find the strongest results for expenditure rules and to a lesser extent for balanced budget rules, but none for debt rules.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; H60 ; ddc:330 ; discretionary fiscal policy ; fiscal rules ; fiscal space ; procyclicality
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Wiesbaden: Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-16
    Description: This study introduces a new firm-level dataset containing over two million projects co-funded by the European Union's (EU) structural and Cohesion funds in 25 EU member states in the multi-annual financial framework 2007-2013. Information on individual beneficiary firms and institutions published by regional authorities is linked with business data from Bureau van Dijk's ORBIS database. Moreover, we show how modern text mining techniques can be used to categorise EU funded projects into fifteen thematic categories proposed by the European Commission. A first analysis of the dataset reveals substantial heterogeneity of beneficiaries and projects across and within countries. While in the majority of lagging regions the largest project expenditure is dedicated to transportation and energy infrastructure, in most other regions the major part is assigned to innovation and technological development as well as business (including SME) support. In an econometric analysis we control for project and firm characteristics and find that the highest single project values are associated with older beneficiary firms that are larger in size. Furthermore, the projects with topmost expenditure are carried out in Dutch and British regions.
    Keywords: E61 ; H77 ; R11 ; R58 ; ddc:330 ; Distribution of EU structural funds ; Regional policy ; Firm-level data ; Cohesion ; European Union
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Wiesbaden: Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
    Publication Date: 2019-03-13
    Description: Utilising data of the EU28 Member States for the period 1996-2015, this paper confirms the findings of previous studies that the stipulation of fiscal rules reduces fiscal volatility and consequently contributes to macroeconomic stability. Yet, we document that this result only holds for rules which are designed to be unaffected by the current state of the business cycle, i.e. which are "a-cyclical". Those can, e.g. be budget balance rules that set ceilings in cyclically adjusted terms or expenditure rules that set a limit relative to potential instead of current output. Furthermore, the stringency of fiscal rules amplifies their stabilising effect. Actual year-to-year compliance with fiscal rules seems to play no systematic role, such that effects of the rules can be observed even if they are not complied with year-to-year. Overall, our paper suggests that strong, properly designed numerical rules act as an anchor for fiscal policy makers and contribute to more stable discretionary fiscal policy.
    Keywords: C23 ; E62 ; E32 ; H60 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal rules ; fiscal policy volatility ; panel data ; compliance
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Wiesbaden: Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-16
    Description: This paper identifies determinants of compliance with various types of national numerical fiscal rules. Based on 51 fiscal rules in 20 EU member states from 1995 to 2015, the analysis identifies determinants among specific rule characteristics and their fiscal frameworks, as well as their political, (socio-)economic and supranational environments. While the average compliance across all rules and countries is around 50%, compliance with rules constraining stock (rather than flow) variables, set out in coalitional agreements, as well as rules covering larger parts of general government finances is significantly higher. Furthermore, independent monitoring and enforcement bodies (issuing real-time alerts) turn out to be significantly associated with a higher probability of compliance. Several theories of the deficit bias of governments due to government fragmentation, decentralization and political budget cycles are also significant with regards to compliance with fiscal rules. However, neither the economic environment or business cycle, nor forecast errors (except for an unexpectedly higher primary balance) on average seem to play a significant role.
    Keywords: E62 ; H60 ; H11 ; ddc:330 ; National Numerical Fiscal Rules ; Compliance ; Fiscal institutions ; Deficit Bias
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Wiesbaden: Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-16
    Description: China's economy, the second largest in the world, is undergoing a fundamental transition. Its transition from a strong focus on investment and exports towards a larger share of consumption could have important ramifications for China's trading partners. Using China as a case study, this paper deploys a sectoral input-output (IO) analysis to take into account higher-round spillovers from a reduction in import demand or a shift in the composition of the Chinese economy. This approach demonstrates strong indirect effects that exceed by far the initial shock from direct trade links, reflecting China's integration into a closely knit global value chain. The result suggests that the ongoing transition in China will have important effects on the global economy.
    Keywords: F14 ; C67 ; F47 ; ddc:330 ; Shock propagation ; Trade channel ; Input-Output ; China
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2019-01-16
    Description: This study analyzes the effects of increased trade with China and Eastern Europe on manufacturing employment in 1,146 NUTS-3 regions of 17 Western European countries from 1991 to 2011. Building on Autor et al. (2013) we aim at identifying the causal effects of an increase in import and export exposure on regional manufacturing employment, thereby, explicitly accounting for labor and product market spillovers. Overall, our results support previous findings of a negative effect of increased import exposure from China for our sample of Western European countries, whereas spatial spillover effects turn out to be positive, slightly mitigating the quantitative impact without changing results quantitatively. Moreover, our cross-country study highlights the pronounced heterogeneity of the estimated effects of trade exposure on manufacturing employment across countries with respect to the trade balance.
    Keywords: F16 ; J31 ; R11 ; ddc:330 ; International Trade ; Globalization ; Western Europe ; China ; Eastern Europe ; Employment
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Wiesbaden: Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-16
    Description: The current European fiscal framework is highly complex. The multitude of fiscal rules and the discretion in their enforcement precludes an effective oversight and weakens the effectiveness of fiscal rules substantially. Against this background, we present a proposal for a careful refocusing of the framework to promote fiscal sustainability. The proposal is centered around an expenditure rule as an annual operational target supplemented by a debt-correction factor and a multi-purpose adjustment account which implements a medium-term structural balance rule. Together with a significant reduction in exemptions and escape clauses as well as less discretion in the imposition of sanctions, the proposal increases transparency and efficacy of fiscal rules at the European level.
    Keywords: H50 ; H60 ; E62 ; ddc:330 ; Expenditure rule ; Fiscal rules ; Public finance ; European fiscal framework
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Wiesbaden: Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
    Publication Date: 2019-09-25
    Description: Ein CO2-Preis setzt Anreize für ein emissionsärmeres Verhalten und Investitionen in emissionsärmere Technologien. Damit dieses Koordinationssignal uneingeschränkt wirken kann, muss es möglichst einheitlich über alle Sektoren, Technologien, Regionen und Emittenten wirken. Für Haushalte führt die Bepreisung zunächst zu einer regressiven Verteilungswirkung; dies kann jedoch durch eine Rückverteilung der Einnahmen in einen progressiven Verlauf geändert werden, sodass Haushalte mit niedrigen Einkommen im Durchschnitt netto entlastet werden. Die Ausgestaltung der Rückverteilung kann auf unterschiedliche Eigenschaften des Rückverteilungsmechanismus abzielen, etwa eine möglichst hohe Transparenz oder das Erreichen einer "doppelten Dividende". Bei aufkommensneutraler Rückverteilung erfahren der mittlere und obere Einkommensbereich, Alleinstehende und Bewohner städtischer Regionen sowie Besitzer von Öl- und Gasheizungen tendenziell die stärkste Nettobelastung.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2013-05-01
    Description: In recent years a body of literature has arisen on the topic of how to compose the optimal portfolio of mitigation options. The focus has been mainly on options involving shifts from high- to low- or even negative-carbon technologies. Natural sinks play an important role in any attempt to stabilize atmospheric CO2 and usually enter as a constant term in the overall carbon budget. In this paper, we introduce natural sinks to the carbon management problem and analyze the implications for negative emission technology deployment and the overall mitigation strategy. Amongst other sensitivity analyses, we also investigate the impact of uncertainty in the carbon sink, which we find to raise the importance of negative emissions in the mitigation portfolio significantly lowering the cost of the policy mix. ©2013 The Author(s)〈br /〉〈br /〉〈a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0676-1" target="_blank"〉〈img src="http://bib.telegrafenberg.de/typo3temp/pics/f2f773b55e.png" border="0"〉〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0165-0009
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-1480
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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