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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2015-04-28
    Description: In response to a growing interest in the Arctic in recent years, the number of real-time short-medium range sea ice prediction systems has been increasing, and now includes several systems covering the full Arctic Ocean, for example: the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS; Posey et al., 2010), Towards an Operational Prediction system for the North Atlantic European coastal Zones (TOPAZ; Bertino and Lisæter, 2008), and the Canadian Centre for Marine and Environmental Prediction’s Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS; Smith et al., 2015) and Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS; Lemieux et al., 2015; Buehner et al., 2013). In addition, numerous ice-ocean hindcasts1 and reanalyses have been made and intercompared through the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP; Johnson et al., 2007) and the CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP; Balmaseda et al., 2015). Despite this significant effort, it is difficult to ascertain the true skill of these prediction systems and their primary sources of error, as reliable observations are limited and verification techniques tend to vary from one group to another. As a result, the potential benefits of sea ice prediction for various user groups (e.g. national ice services, marine transportation and resource exploitation, coupling with numerical weather prediction) have been hindered by uncertainty regarding the skillfulness of predictions and how best to use them. An intercomparison of sea ice fields from existing systems by the GODAE Oceanview Intercomparison and Validation Task Team (www.godae.org) has been initiated, although a larger coordinated international effort is needed. The upcoming Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) aims to address these challenges in the context of a broader initiative toward improved polar environmental predictions for both hemispheres.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-07-01
    Description: Mission statement: “Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hours to seasonal”. Increased economic, transportation and research activities in polar regions are leading to more demands for sustained and improved availability of predictive weather and climate information to support decision-making. However, partly as a result of a strong emphasis of previous international efforts on lower and middle latitudes, many gaps in weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting in polar regions hamper reliable decision making in the Arctic, Antarctic and possibly the middle latitudes as well. In order to advance polar prediction capabilities, the WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) has been established as one of three THORPEX (THe Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment) legacy activities. The aim of PPP, a ten year endeavour (2013-2022), is to promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on hourly to seasonal time scales. In order to achieve its goals, PPP will enhance international and interdisciplinary collaboration through the development of strong linkages with related initiatives; strengthen linkages between academia, research institutions and operational forecasting centres; promote interactions and communication between research and stakeholders; and foster education and outreach. Flagship research activities of PPP include sea ice prediction, polar-lower latitude linkages and the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) - an intensive observational, coupled modelling, service-oriented research and educational effort in the period mid-2017 to mid-2019.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-10-04
    Description: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is planned for mid-2017 to mid-2019, centred on 2018. Its goal is to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities. With a focus on time scales from hours to a season, YOPP is a major initiative of the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and a key component of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). YOPP is being planned and coordinated by the PPP Steering Group together with representatives from partners and other initiatives, including the World Climate Research Programme’s Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI). The objectives of YOPP are to: 1. Improve the existing polar observing system (enhanced coverage, higher-quality observations). 2. Gather additional observations through field programmes aimed at improving understanding of key polar processes. 3. Develop improved representation of key polar processes in (un)coupled models used for prediction. 4. Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systems accounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data. 5. Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean system, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from hours to a season. 6. Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes, assess skill of models representing these linkages, and determine the impact of improved polar prediction on forecast skill in lower latitudes. 7. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions to obtain better quantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user- relevant parameters. 8. Identify various stakeholders and establish their decisionmaking needs with respect to weather, climate, ice, and related environmental services. 9. Assess the costs and benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of users and services. 10. Provide training opportunities to generate a sound knowledge base (and its transfer across generations) on polar prediction related issues. YOPP is implemented in three distinct phases. During the YOPP Preparation Phase (2013 through to mid-2017) this Implementation Plan was developed, which includes key outcomes of consultations with partners at the YOPP Summit in July 2015. Plans will be further developed and refined through focused international workshops. There will be engagement with stakeholders and arrangement of funding, coordination of observations and modelling activities, and preparatory research. During the YOPP Core Phase (mid-2017 to mid-2019), four elements will be staged: intensive observing periods for both hemispheres, a complementary intensive modelling and prediction period, a period of enhanced monitoring of forecast use in decisionmaking including verification, and a special educational effort. Finally, during the YOPP Consolidation Phase (mid-2019 to 2022) the legacy of data, science and publications will be organized. The WWRP-PPP Steering Group provides endorsement throughout the YOPP phases for projects that contribute to YOPP. This process facilitates coordination and enhances visibility, communication, and networking.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Miscellaneous , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1573-1472
    Keywords: Cold-air outbreak ; Surface heat fluxes ; Ronne Ice Shelf ; Thermal internal boundary layer
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A simple model of the convective (thermal) internalboundary layer has been developed for climatologicalstudies of air-sea-ice interaction, where in situobservations are scarce and first-order estimates ofsurface heat fluxes are required. It is amixed-layer slab model, based on a steady-statesolution of the conservation of potentialtemperature equation, assuming a balance betweenadvection and turbulent heat-flux convergence. Boththe potential temperature and the surface heat fluxare allowed to vary with fetch, so the subsequentboundary-layer modification alters the fluxconvergence and thus the boundary-layer growth rate.For simplicity, microphysical and radiativeprocesses are neglected. The model is validated using several case studies.For a clear-sky cold-air outbreak over a coastalpolynya the observed boundary-layer heights,mixed-layer potential temperatures and surface heatfluxes are all well reproduced. In other cases,where clouds are present, the model still capturesmost of the observed boundary-layer modification,although there are increasing discrepancies withfetch, due to the neglected microphysical andradiative processes. The application of the model toclimatological studies of air-sea interaction withincoastal polynyas is discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-01-27
    Description: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has the mission to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user- engagement and education activities. The YOPP Core Phase will be from mid-2017 to mid-2019, flanked by a Preparation Phase and a Consolidation Phase. YOPP is a key component of the World Meteorological Organization – World Weather Research Programme (WMO-WWRP) Polar Prediction Project (PPP). The objectives of YOPP are to: 1. Improve the existing polar observing system (better coverage, higher-quality observations); 2. Gather additional observations through field programmes aimed at improving understanding of key polar processes; 3. Develop improved representation of key polar processes in coupled (and uncoupled) models used for prediction; 4. Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systems accounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data; 5. Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean system, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from days to seasons; 6. Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes and assess skill of models representing these linkages; 7. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions to obtain better quantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user-relevant parameters; 8. Demonstrate the benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of user types and services; 9. Provide training opportunities to generate a sound knowledge base (and its transfer across generations) on polar prediction related issues. The PPP Steering Group provides endorsement for projects that contribute to YOPP to enhance coordination, visibility, communication, and networking. This White Paper is based largely on the much more comprehensive YOPP Implementation Plan (WWRP/PPP No. 3 – 2014), but has an emphasis on Arctic observations.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-02-02
    Description: The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-01-04
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L18802, doi:10.1029/2008GL034845.
    Description: Cape Farewell, Greenland's southernmost point, is a region of significant interest in the meteorological and oceanographic communities in that atmospheric flow distortion associated with the high topography of the region leads to a number of high wind speed jets. The resulting large air-sea fluxes of momentum and buoyancy have a dramatic impact on the region's weather and ocean circulation. Here the first in-situ observations of the surface meteorology in the region, collected from an instrumented buoy, are presented. The buoy wind speeds are compared to 10 m wind speeds from the QuikSCAT satellite and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). We show that the QuikSCAT retrievals have a high wind speed bias that is absent from the NARR winds. The spatial characteristics of the high wind speed events are also presented.
    Description: The support of the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science, the support of the National Science Foundation grant OCE-0450658as well as the Natural Environmental Research Council grant NE/C003365/1.
    Keywords: Buoy observations ; Tip jets ; Cape Farewell
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-01-07
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L18806, doi:10.1029/2012GL053097.
    Description: On a variety of spatial and temporal scales, the energy transferred by air-sea heat and moisture fluxes plays an important role in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations. This is particularly true in the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean, where these fluxes drive water-mass transformations that are an integral component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we use the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis to provide a high-resolution view of the spatial structure of the air-sea turbulent heat fluxes over the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean. As has been previously recognized, the Labrador and Greenland Seas are areas where these fluxes are large during the winter months. Our particular focus is on the Iceland Sea region where, despite the fact that water-mass transformation occurs, the winter-time air-sea heat fluxes are smaller than anywhere else in the sub-polar domain. We attribute this minimum to a saddle point in the sea-level pressure field, that results in a reduction in mean surface wind speed, as well as colder sea surface temperatures associated with the regional ocean circulation. The magnitude of the heat fluxes in this region are modulated by the relative strength of the Icelandic and Lofoten Lows, and this leads to periods of ocean cooling and even ocean warming when, intriguingly, the sensible and latent heat fluxes are of opposite sign. This suggests that the air-sea forcing in this area has large-scale impacts for climate, and that even modest shifts in the atmospheric circulation could potentially impact the AMOC.
    Description: GWKM was supported by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. IAR was funded in part by NCAS (the National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences) and by NERC grant NE/I005293/1. RSP was funded by grant OCE-0959381 fromthe US National Science Foundation.
    Description: 2013-03-27
    Keywords: Air-sea interaction ; Climate variability ; Water mass transformation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-01-04
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 2453–2466, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00023.1.
    Description: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most important modes of variability in the global climate system and is characterized by a meridional dipole in the sea level pressure field, with centers of action near Iceland and the Azores. It has a profound influence on the weather, climate, ecosystems, and economies of Europe, Greenland, eastern North America, and North Africa. It has been proposed that around 1980, there was an eastward secular shift in the NAO’s northern center of action that impacted sea ice export through Fram Strait. Independently, it has also been suggested that the location of its southern center of action is tied to the phase of the NAO. Both of these attributes of the NAO have been linked to anthropogenic climate change. Here the authors use both the one-point correlation map technique as well as empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to show that the meridional dipole that is often seen in the sea level pressure field over the North Atlantic is not purely the result of the NAO (as traditionally defined) but rather arises through an interplay among the NAO and two other leading modes of variability in the North Atlantic region: the East Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian (SCA) patterns. This interplay has resulted in multidecadal mobility in the two centers of action of the meridional dipole since the late nineteenth century. In particular, an eastward movement of the dipole has occurred during the 1930s to 1950s as well as more recently. This mobility is not seen in the leading EOF of the sea level pressure field in the region.
    Description: GWKM was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. IAR was supported in part by NE/C003365/1. RSP was supported by Grant OCE-0959381 from the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Description: 2013-10-15
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Climate variability ; Climatology ; Empirical orthogonal functions
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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