ALBERT

Description: Habitat connectivity is important for the survival of species that occupy habitat patches too small to sustain an isolated population. A prominent example of such a species is the European bison (Bison bonasus), occurring only in small, isolated herds, and whose survival will depend on establishing larger, well-connected populations. Our goal here was to assess habitat connectivity of European bison in the Carpathians. We used an existing bison habitat suitability map and data on dispersal barriers to derive cost surfaces, representing the ability of bison to move across the landscape, and to delineate potential connections (as least-cost paths) between currently occupied and potential habitat patches. Graph theory tools were then employed to evaluate the connectivity of all potential habitat patches and their relative importance in the network. Our analysis showed that existing bison herds in Ukraine are isolated. However, we identified several groups of well-connected habitat patches in the Carpathians which could host a large population of European bison. Our analysis also located important dispersal corridors connecting existing herds, and several promising locations for future reintroductions (especially in the Eastern Carpathians) that should have a high priority for conservation efforts. In general, our approach indicates the most important elements within a landscape mosaic for providing and maintaining the overall connectivity of different habitat networks and thus offers a robust and powerful tool for conservation planning.

Description: Detailed knowledge of forest cover dynamics is crucial for many applications from resource management to ecosystem service assessments. Landsat data provides the necessary spatial, temporal and spectral detail to map and analyze forest cover and forest change processes. With the opening of the Landsat archive, new opportunities arise to monitor forest dynamics on regional to continental scales. In this study we analyzed changes in forest types, forest disturbances, and forest recovery for the Carpathian ecoregion in Eastern Europe. We generated a series of image composites at five year intervals between 1985 and 2010 and utilized a hybrid analysis strategy consisting of radiometric change classification, post-classification comparison and continuous index- and segment-based post-disturbance recovery assessment. For validation of the disturbance map we used a point-based accuracy assessment, and assessed the accuracy of our forest type maps using forest inventory data and statistically sampled ground truth data for 2010. Our Carpathian-wide disturbance map achieved an overall accuracy of 86% and the forest type maps up to 73% accuracy. While our results suggested a small net forest increase in the Carpathians, almost 20% of the forests experienced stand-replacing disturbances over the past 25 years. Forest recovery seemed to only partly counterbalance the widespread natural disturbances and clear-cutting activities. Disturbances were most widespread during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but some areas also exhibited extensive forest disturbances after 2000, especially in the Polish, Czech and Romanian Carpathians. Considerable shifts in forest composition occurred in the Carpathians, with disturbances increasingly affecting coniferous forests, and a relative decrease in coniferous and mixed forests. Both aspects are likely connected to an increased vulnerability of spruce plantations to pests and pathogens in the Carpathians. Overall, our results exemplify the highly dynamic nature of forest cover during times of socio-economic and institutional change, and highlight the value of the Landsat archive for monitoring these dynamics.

Description: Institutional settings play a key role in shaping land cover and land use. Our goal was to understand the effects of institutional changes on agricultural land abandonment in different countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union after the collapse of socialism. We studied 273 800 km**2 (eight Landsat footprints) within one agro-ecological zone stretching across Poland, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania and European Russia. Multi-seasonal Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite images centered on 1990 (the end of socialism) and 2000 (one decade after the end of socialism) were used to classify agricultural land abandonment using support vector machines. The results revealed marked differences in the abandonment rates betweencountries. The highest rates of land abandonment were observed in Latvia (42% of all agricultural land in 1990 was abandoned by 2000), followed by Russia (31%), Lithuania (28%), Poland (14%) and Belarus (13%). Cross-border comparisons revealed striking differences; for example, in the Belarus-Russia cross-border area there was a great difference between the rates of abandonment of the two countries (10% versus 47% of abandonment). Our results highlight the importance of institutions and policies for land-use trajectories and demonstrate that radically different combinations of institutional change of strong institutions during the transition can reduce the rate of agricultural land abandonment (e.g., in Belarus and in Poland). Inversely, our results demonstrate higher abandonment rates for countries where the institutions that regulate land use changed and where the institutions took more time to establish (e.g., Latvia, Lithuania and Russia). Better knowledge regarding the effects of such broad-scale change is essential for understanding land-use change and for designing effective land-use policies. This information is particularly relevant for Northern Eurasia, where rapid land-use change offers vast opportunities for carbon balance and biodiversity, and for increasing agricultural production on previously cultivated lands.

Description: During the Soviet Virgin Lands Campaign, approximately 23 million hectares (Mha) of Eurasian steppe grassland were converted into cropland in Northern Kazakhstan from 1954 to 1963. As a result Kazakhstan became an important breadbasket of the former Soviet Union. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered widespread agricultural abandonment, and much cropland reverted to grasslands. Our goal in this study was to reconstruct and analyze agricultural land-cover change since the eve of the Virgin Lands Campaign, from 1953 to 2010 in Kostanay Province, a region that is representative of Northern Kazakhstan. Further, we assessed the potential of currently idle cropland for re-cultivation. We reconstructed the cropland extent before and after the Virgin Lands Campaign using archival maps, and we mapped the agricultural land cover in the late Soviet and post-Soviet period using multi-seasonal Landsat TM/ETM+ images from circa 1990, 2000 and 2010. Cropland extent peaked at approximately 3.1 Mha in our study area in 1990, 38% of which had been converted from grasslands from 1954 to 1961. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, 45% of the Soviet cropland was abandoned and had reverted to grassland by 2000. After 2000, cropland contraction and re-cultivation were balanced. Using spatial logistic regressions we found that cropland expansion during the Virgin Lands Campaign was significantly associated with favorable agro-environmental conditions. In contrast, cropland expansion after the Campaign until 1990, as well as cropland contraction after 1990, occurred mainly in areas that were less favorable for agriculture. Cropland re-cultivation after 2000 was occurring on lands with relatively favorable agro-environmental conditions in comparison to remaining idle croplands, albeit with much lower agro-environmental endowment compared to stable croplands from 1990 to 2010. In sum, we found that cropland production potentials of the currently uncultivated areas are much lower than commonly believed, and further cropland expansion is only possible at the expense of marginal lands. Our results suggest if increasing production is a goal, improving crop yields in currently cultivated lands should be a focus, whereas extensive livestock grazing as well as the conservation of non-provisioning ecosystem services and biodiversity should be priority on more marginal lands.

Description: Conservation priorities that are based on species distribution, endemism, and vulnerability may underrepresent biologically unique species as well as their functional roles and evolutionary histories. To ensure that priorities are biologically comprehensive, multiple dimensions of diversity must be considered. Further, understanding how the different dimensions relate to one another spatially is important for conservation prioritization, but the relationship remains poorly understood. Here, we use spatial conservation planning to (i) identify and compare priority regions for global mammal conservation across three key dimensions of biodiversity—taxonomic, phylogenetic, and traits—and (ii) determine the overlap of these regions with the locations of threatened species and existing protected areas. We show that priority areas for mammal conservation exhibit low overlap across the three dimensions, highlighting the need for an integrative approach for biodiversity conservation. Additionally, currently protected areas poorly represent the three dimensions of mammalian biodiversity. We identify areas of high conservation priority among and across the dimensions that should receive special attention for expanding the global protected area network. These high-priority areas, combined with areas of high priority for other taxonomic groups and with social, economic, and political considerations, provide a biological foundation for future conservation planning efforts.

Description: Carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) can affect national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, in which the production and end use of HWPs play a key role. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidance on HWP carbon accounting, which is sensitive to future developments of socioeconomic factors including population, income, and trade. We estimated the carbon stored within HWPs from 1961 to 2065 for 180 countries following IPCC carbon-accounting guidelines, consistent with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT) historical data and plausible futures outlined by the shared socioeconomic pathways. We found that the global HWP pool was a net annual sink of 335 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)⋅y−1 in 2015, offsetting substantial amounts of industrial processes within some countries, and as much as 441 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 by 2030 under certain socioeconomic developments. Furthermore, there is a considerable sequestration gap (71 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 of unaccounted carbon storage in 2015 and 120 Mt of CO2e⋅y−1 by 2065) under current IPCC Good Practice Guidance, as traded feedstock is ineligible for national GHG inventories. However, even under favorable socioeconomic conditions, and when accounting for the sequestration gap, carbon stored annually in HWPs is

Description: The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km2; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990–2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.

Description: Natural disturbance patterns can provide useful information for ecosystem management. Our objective was to provide a detailed spatial picture of the pre-European settlement vegetation cover for the northwestern Wisconsin Pine Barrens and to compare it with the present vegetation cover. We analyzed the presettlement conditions using an extensive data set comprised of U.S. General Land Office surveyor records from the mid-19th century and related it to the vegetation cover in 1987 as depicted in a Landsat satellite forest classification. Changes were quantified by calculating differences in abundance and relative importance of tree species at presettlement time and today. Our results revealed a strong decline of jack, red, and white pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb., Pinus resinosa Ait., and Pinus strobus L., respectively), accompanied by an increase of oak (Quercus spp.), trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), and other hardwood species. Certain vegetation types, e.g., red pine and oak savannas, were removed from the landscape. The forest density gradient of the presettlement landscape with open savannas and woodlands in the South and denser forests in the North disappeared. These changes, especially the increase in forest cover, are ecologically significant because numerous species are adapted to open habitat, which was previously created by fire, and their populations are declining.