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  • 1
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-14
    Description: Emissions mitigation policies affect prices, including prices for fossil fuels and agricultural products. Consumer prices for coal and natural gas are expected to rise when climate policy is implemented, while oil prices may be reduced or remain the same in comparison to a no policy scenario. Impacts on agricultural prices are more controversial as reduced negative productivity impacts on yields are compensated by increased costs of energy inputs to agriculture, lower CO2 fertilization effect, and a competition for land from biofuels. In most of the mitigation scenarios considered in the paper, mitigation policies increase agricultural prices in comparison to the no policy scenario.
    Keywords: Q54 ; Q47 ; Q18 ; ddc:330 ; climate change mitigation ; fuel prices ; agricultural prices ; biofuels ; computable general equilibrium ; Klimawandel ; Immissionsschutz ; Fossile Energie ; Biokraftstoff ; Agrarpreis ; CGE-Modelling ; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favourable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost to structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with the likelihood of much larger benefits post 2050.
    Keywords: O11 ; O55 ; Q41 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; climate change ; global mitigation ; developing countries ; growth and development ; climate uncertainty
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Lincoln, Neb. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    ISSN: 1542-0485
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we investigate the potential production and implications of a global biofuels industry. We develop alternative approaches to consistently introduce land as an economic factor input and in physical terms into a computable general equilibrium framework. The approach allows us to parameterize biomass production consistent with agro-engineering information on yields and a "second generation" cellulosic biomass conversion technology. We explicitly model land conversion from natural areas to agricultural use in two different ways: in one approach we introduced a land supply elasticity based on observed land supply responses and in the other approach we considered only the direct cost of conversion. We estimate biofuels production at the end of the century could reach 221 to 267 EJ in a reference scenario and 319 to 368 EJ under a global effort to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The version with the land supply elasticity allowed much less conversion of land from natural areas, forcing intensification of production, especially on pasture and grazing land, whereas the pure conversion cost model led to significant deforestation. These different approaches emphasize the importance of somehow reflecting the non-market value of land more fully in the conversion decision. The observed land conversion response we estimate may be a short turn response that does not fully reflect the effect of long run pressure to convert land if rent differentials are sustained over 100 years.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
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    Milano: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: In the absence of significant greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, many analysts project that atmospheric concentrations of species identified for control in the Kyoto protocol could exceed 1000 ppm (carbon-dioxide-equivalent) by 2100 from the current levels of about 435 ppm. This could lead to global average temperature increases of between 2.5 and 6êC by the end of the century. There are risks of even greater warming given that underlying uncertainties in emissions projections and climate response are substantial. Stabilization of GHG concentrations that would have a reasonable chance of meeting temperature targets identified in international negotiations would require significant reductions in GHG emissions below business-as-usual levels, and indeed from present emissions levels. Nearly universal participation of countries is required, and the needed investments in efficiency and alternative energy sources would entail significant costs. Resolving how these additional costs might be shared among countries is critical to facilitating a wide participation of large-emitting countries in a climate stabilization policy. The 2êC target is very ambitious given current atmospheric concentrations and inertia in the energy and climate system. The Copenhagen pledges for 2020 still keep the 2êC target within reach, but very aggressive actions would be needed immediately after that.
    Keywords: Q54 ; Q58 ; ddc:330 ; Emissions Pricing ; Climate Stabilization
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: This paper examines how changes in an international climate regime would affect the European decarbonization strategy and costs through the mechanisms of trade, technology, and innovation. We present the results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) model comparison study on European climate policy to 2050. Moving from a no-policy scenario to an existing-policies case reduces all energy imports, on average. Introducing a more stringent climate policy target for the EU only leads to slightly greater global emission reductions. Consumers and producers in Europe bear most of the additional burden and inevitably face some economic losses. More ambitious mitigation action outside Europe, especially when paired with a well-operating global carbon market, could reduce the burden for Europe significantly. Because of global learning, the costs of wind and especially solar-PV in Europe would decline below the levels observed in the existing-policy case and increased R&D spending outside the EU would leverage EU R&D investments as well.
    Keywords: Q5 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; Climate Change ; Stabilization Policy ; International Participation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2015-07-08
    Description: CO2 emissions mandates for new light-duty passenger vehicles have recently been adopted in the European Union (EU), which require steady reductions to 95 g CO2/km in 2021. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we analyze the impact of the mandates on oil demand, CO2 emissions, and economic welfare, and compare the results to an emission trading scenario that achieves identical emissions reductions. We find that vehicle emission standards reduce CO2 emissions from transportation by about 50 MtCO2 and lower the oil expenditures by about €6 billion, but at a net added cost of €12 billion in 2020. Tightening CO2 standards further after 2021 would cost the EU economy an additional €24-63 billion in 2025 compared with an emission trading system achieving the same economy-wide CO2 reduction. We offer a discussion of the design features for incorporating transport into the emission trading system.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-02-15
    Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 9 (2014): 035004, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/035004.
    Description: Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies.
    Description: This research was supported by the NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change program (NASANNX09A126G).
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-09-07
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 12 (2017): 083001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7aae.
    Description: Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human–Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human–Earth system.
    Description: We acknowledge the funding from the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Land-Cover and Land-Use Change (LCLUC) Program, which provided support for Erwan Monier, David Kicklighter, Andrei Sokolov, Qianlai Zhuang and Sergey Paltsev under grant NNX14AD91G and Irina Sokolik under grant NNX14AD88G. Support for Pavel Groisman was provided by Grant 14.B25.31.0026 of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation to P. P. Shirshov Institute for Oceanology and by Project 'Arctic Climate Change and its Impact on Environment, Infrastructures, and Resource Availability' sponsored by ANR (France), RFBR (Russia), and NSF (USA) in response to Belmont Forum Collaborative Research Action on Arctic Observing and Research for Sustainability.
    Keywords: Global change ; Northern Eurasia ; NEESPI ; Earth system model ; Integrated assessment model ; Coupled human–Earth system
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-02-15
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 9 (2018): 660, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-02984-9.
    Description: Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis—which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios—we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-02-15
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2007. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Energy Policy 35 (2007): 5370-5383, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.01.040.
    Description: Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the combined effects of changes in climate, increases in carbon dioxide, and changes in tropospheric ozone on crop, pasture, and forest lands and the consequences for the global and regional economies. We examine scenarios where there is limited or little effort to control these substances, and policy scenarios that limit emissions of CO2 and ozone precursors. We find the effects of climate and CO2 to be generally positive, and the effects of ozone to be very detrimental. Unless ozone is strongly controlled damage could offset CO2 and climate benefits. We find that resource allocation among sectors in the economy, and trade among countries, can strongly affect the estimate of economic effect in a country.
    Description: This research was supported by the US Department of Energy, US Environmental Protection Agency, US National Science Foundation, US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration; and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
    Keywords: Climate change ; Ozone damage ; Vegetation ; Agriculture ; Economics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
    Format: application/pdf
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