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  • 1
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    Springer
    In:  Pure and Applied Geophysics, 173 (12). pp. 3775-3794.
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth 〉0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-12-17
    Description: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment requires the existence of a synthetic earthquake catalogue obeying the geodynamic framework of the source area and a fault model for each event. Usually, we assume a constant fault displacement, eventually filtered by a simple closure condition. The distribution of events by magnitude classes follows a truncated Gutenberg-Richter law with epicentres uniformly distributed in the source domain. This approach makes that the slip on the source structures will extend beyond the generation domain being heterogeneous inside that domain. This contradicts the assumption that the slip is caused by geodynamic constraints. Here, we propose a methodology for creating synthetic earthquake catalogues and we apply it to the Gloria Fault in the Atlantic. With three instrumental tsunamis recorded: 08.05.1939, 25.11.1941 and 26.05.1975 [1]. Additionally, we propose a semi-empirical scaling law for the generation of the tsunamigenic earthquakes
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2014-08-14
    Description: The method presented here aims to assess the tsunami threat very rapidly after the occurrence of a large earthquake, using as input the parameters of the seismic source, and an approach based on Green's summation. We show that the main weakness of the approach (the need to consider only linear shallow water propagation) is largely compensated by the advantages in terms of computing performance and independence with respect to pre-computed scenarios. To test the approach and to illustrate its implementation in a real environment, we focus on the Sea of Oman, a tsunamigenic area characterized by Makran subduction zone which detailed structure is partially unknown and where secondary tsunami sources must also be taken into account, both for hazard studies and warning purposes. The potential source area is partitioned into a grid of unity water sources. A shallow water (SW) numerical model is used to pre-compute the corresponding empirical Green's functions on several points of interest located on the coasts of Iran, Pakistan and Oman. The comparison between Green's summation and the direct SW computation using the full resolution of the bathymetric grid shows that the accuracy is good enough for practical applications.
    Keywords: Marine Geosciences and Applied Geophysics
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-03-28
    Description: Tsunamis occur quite frequently following large magnitude earthquakes along the Chilean coast. Most of these earthquakes occur along the Peru–Chile Trench, one of the most seismically active subduction zones of the world. This study aims to understand better the characteristics of the tsunamis triggered along the Peru–Chile Trench. We investigate the tsunamis induced by the Mw8.3 Illapel, the Mw8.2 Iquique and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015, April 1st, 2014 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami generation, the near-field tsunami propagation, and the spectral analysis of the recorded tsunami signals in the near-field. We compare the tsunami characteristics to highlight the possible similarities between the three events and, therefore, attempt to distinguish the specific characteristics of the tsunamis occurring along the Peru–Chile Trench. We find that these three earthquakes present faults with important extensions beneath the continent which result in the generation of tsunamis with short wavelengths, relative to the fault widths involved, and with reduced initial potential energy. In addition, the presence of the Chilean continental margin, that includes the shelf of shallow bathymetry and the continental slope, constrains the tsunami propagation and the coastal impact. All these factors contribute to a concentrated local impact but can, on the other hand, reduce the far-field tsunami effects from earthquakes along Peru–Chile Trench. ©2016 Springer International Publishing
    Print ISSN: 0033-4553
    Electronic ISSN: 1420-9136
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2015-03-01
    Description: In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years. ©2014 Springer Basel
    Print ISSN: 0033-4553
    Electronic ISSN: 1420-9136
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2011-06-01
    Description: The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1–8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities. ©2010 Springer Basel AG
    Print ISSN: 0033-4553
    Electronic ISSN: 1420-9136
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2010-07-01
    Description: Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco’s coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards. ©2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Print ISSN: 0921-030X
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-0840
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2011-09-14
    Description: Remarkable accumulations of marine boulders located above present spring tide level occur in two coastal lowlands of the Algarve (Portugal). The size-interval of particles studied here is seldom reported in the literature in association with extreme events of coastal inundation, thus making this study of relevance to many other coasts worldwide. The spreads of boulders extend several hundred meters inland and well beyond the present landward limit of storm activity. The marine origin of the boulders is demonstrated by well-developed macro-bioerosion sculpturing and in situ skeletal remains of endolithic shallow marine bivalves. The good state preservation of the fossils within the boulders indicates that abrasion during transport and redeposition was not significant. We envisage boulder deposition as having taken place during the Lisbon tsunami of AD 1755 through the simultaneous landward entrainment of coarse particles from nearshore followed by rapid shoreward suspended-dominated transport and non-graded redeposition that excluded significant sorting by weight or boulder dimensions. We use numerical hydrodynamic modeling of tsunami (and storm) waves to test the observational data on boulder dimensions (density, size, distribution) on the most likely processes of sediment deposition. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of the study of boulder deposits in tsunami reconstruction. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Print ISSN: 0197-9337
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-9837
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2014-08-12
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 10
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