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  • 1
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    New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-06-25
    Description: Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in recent years. One reason for this is that datasets with many variables are increasingly becoming available and being utilized for economic modelling, and another is that common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. In this paper we review some recent results in the study of diffusion index models, focusing primarily on advances due to [4, 5] and [1]. We discuss, for example, the construction of factors used in prediction models implemented using diffusion index methodology and approaches that are useful for assessing whether there are observable variables that adequately proxy for estimated factors.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; diffusion index ; factor ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; parameter estimation error ; proxy ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Konjunkturindikator ; Prognoseverfahren ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Schätztheorie ; Theorie ; Schätzung ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: Understanding the relationship between food insecurity and subjective evaluation of well-being is critical in designing social welfare policies, especially in developing countries. Surprisingly, literature on the topic is scarce. This study adopted Van Praag's theoretical framework and used household survey data from Ghana to investigate the monetary income which households facing severe food insecurity require to reach a given level of verbal qualification of well-being. We found that households that are food insecure require a higher monetary income to reach the same level of verbal qualification of well-being than their counterparts who are food secure. Furthermore, per capita household income levels positively correlate with monetary income requirements, indicating a weak correlation between food security and per capita household income. Households that receive support from others require a lower level of income than either those who give support or those who neither give nor receive support.
    Keywords: I31 ; ddc:330 ; food security ; well-being ; equivalent scale
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2013-08-31
    Description: Designing software systems, like all design activities, is a knowledge-intensive task. Several studies have found that the predominant cause of failures among system designers is lack of knowledge: knowledge about the application domain, knowledge about design schemes, knowledge about design processes, etc. The goal of domain-specific software design systems is to explicitly represent knowledge relevant to a class of applications and use it to partially or completely automate various aspects of the designing systems within that domain. The hope is that this would reduce the intellectual burden on the human designers and lead to more efficient software development. In this paper, we present a domain-specific system built on top of KASE, a knowledge-assisted software engineering environment being developed at the Stanford Knowledge Systems Laboratory. We introduce the main ideas underlying the construction of domain specific systems within KASE, illustrate the application of the idea in the synthesis of a system for tracking aircraft from radar signals, and discuss some of the issues in constructing domain-specific systems.
    Keywords: COMPUTER PROGRAMMING AND SOFTWARE
    Type: NASA. Ames Research Center, Working Notes from the 1992 AAAI Workshop on Automating Software Design. Theme: Domain Specific Software Design; p 11-1
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-10-02
    Description: Researchers are entering the second decade of research in the Blackboard problem solving framework with focus in the following areas: (1) extensions to the basic concepts implemented in AGE-1 to address, for example, reasoning with uncertain data; (2) a new architecture and development environment, BB1, that implements methods for explicity controlling the reasoning; and (3) the design of and experimentation with multiprocessor architectures using the Blackboard as an organizing framework. A summary of these efforts is presented.
    Keywords: CYBERNETICS
    Type: National Academy of Sciences - National Research Proceedings of the Workshop on AI (Artificial Intelligence), and Distributed Problem Solving; p 77-85
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-06-25
    Description: In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error. We then discuss the Corradi and Swanson (CS: 2002) test of (non)linear out-of-sample Granger causality. Thereafter, we carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments examining the properties of the CS and a variety of other related predictive accuracy and model selection type tests. Finally, we present the results of an empirical investigation of the marginal predictive content of money for income, in the spirit of Stock and Watson (1989), Swanson (1998) and Amato and Swanson (2001).
    Keywords: C22 ; C51 ; ddc:330 ; block bootstrap ; forecasting ; recursive estimation scheme ; rolling estimation scheme ; model misspecification ; nonlinear causality ; parameter estimation error ; prediction ; Prognoseverfahren ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Inferenzstatistik ; Modellierung ; Geldpolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion ; Theorie
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-06-25
    Description: In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error on the class of test statistics with limiting distributions that are functionals of Gaussian processes with covariance kernels that are dependent upon parameter and model uncertainty. We then provide an example of a particular test which falls in this class. Namely, we outline the so-called Corradi and Swanson (CS: 2002) test of (non)linear out-of-sample Granger causality. Thereafter, we carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments examining the properties of the CS and a variety of other related predictive accuracy and model selection type tests. Finally, we present the results of an empirical investigation of the marginal predictive content of money for income, in the spirit of Stock andWatson (1989), Swanson (1998), Amato and Swanson (2001), and the references cited therein. We find that there is evidence of predictive causation when in-sample estimation periods are ended any time during the 1980s, but less evidence during the 1970s. Furthermore, recursive estimation windows yield better prediction models when prediction periods begin in the 1980s, while rolling estimation windows yield better models when prediction periods begin during the 1970s and 1990s. Interestingly, these two results can be combined into a coherent picture of what is driving our empirical results. Namely, when recursive estimation windows yield lower overall predictive MSEs, then bigger prediction models that include money are preferred, while smaller models without money are preferred when rolling models yield the lowest MSE predictors.
    Keywords: C22 ; C51 ; ddc:330 ; Block bootstrap ; forecasting ; nonlinear causality ; recursive estimation scheme ; rolling estimation schememodel misspecification
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-06-25
    Description: In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We then outline a number of approaches to the selection of factor proxies (observed variables that proxy unobserved estimated factors) using the statistics developed in Bai and Ng (2006a,b). Our approach to factor proxy selection is examined via a small Monte Carlo experiment, where evidence supporting our proposed methodology is presented, and via a large set of prediction experiments using the panel dataset of Stock and Watson (2005). One of our main empirical findings is that our smoothed approaches to factor proxy selection appear to yield predictions that are often superior not only to a benchmark factor model, but also to simple linear time series models which are generally difficult to beat in forecasting competitions. In some sense, by using our approach to predictive factor proxy selection, one is able to open up the black box often associated with factor analysis, and to identify actual variables that can serve as primitive building blocks for (prediction) models of a host of macroeconomic variables, and that can also serve are policy instruments, for example. Our findings suggest that important observable variables include: various S&P500 variables, including stock price indices and dividend series; a 1-year Treasury bond rate; various housing activity variables; industrial production; and exchange rates.
    Keywords: C22 ; C33 ; C51 ; ddc:330 ; diffusion index ; factor ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; parameter estimation error ; proxy ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Prognoseverfahren ; Schätztheorie ; Theorie ; Schätzung ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-06-25
    Description: Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic indicators is given. In this paper, we define a particular set of indicators; that is chosen to be representative of the typical sort of variable used in practice by both policy-setters and economic forecasters. As a measure of the adequacy; of the indicators, we compare their predictive content with that of a group of observable factor proxies selected from amongst 132 macroeconomic and financial time series, using the diffusion index methodology of Stock and Watson (2002a,b) and the factor proxy methodology of Bai and Ng (2006a,b) and Armah and Swanson (2010). The variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators that are often discussed when assessing the impact of monetary policy. Interestingly, we find that thc indicators are all contained within the set the observable variables that proxy our factors. Our findings, thus, support the notion that a judiciously chosen set of macroeconomic indicators can effectively provide the same macroeconomic policy-relevant information as that contained in a largescale time series dataset. Of course, the large-scale datasets are still required in order to select the key indicator variables or confirm one's prior choice of key variables. Our findings also suggest that certain yield spreads; are also useful indicators. The particular spreads that we find to be useful are the difference between Treasury or corporate yields and the federal funds rate. After conditioning on these variables, traditional spreads, such as the yield curve slope and the reverse yield gap are found to contain no additional marginal predictive content. We also find that the macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time periods, while inclusion of our spread variables improves predictive accuracy in times of high volatility.
    Keywords: C22 ; C33 ; C51 ; ddc:330 ; diffusion index ; factor ; federal reserve bank ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; monetary policy ; parameter estimation error ; proxy ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Konjunkturindikator ; Geldpolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Prognoseverfahren ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Schätztheorie ; Theorie ; Schätzung ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2004-10-02
    Description: Space construction poses new challenges not yet met in the space program to date. New materials: High strength to weight ratio metal matrix composites and other kinds of composites have been developed. They have not been fully characterized as regards rolling, drilling, cutting, forming, joining, etc. New joining methods: Many types of joining methods are proposed for use in space construction. It is important to understand the key discriminators in choosing one method over another. Once the discriminators are known, one can rank the various methods of joining or connecting things in space. New constructors: Astronauts frequently mention that EVA effort is very exhausting because of the suit inflexibility. For these reasons, as well as the inherent risk, hazards due to radiation, and other concerns mentioned in the literature, it is likely that robot workers of various sorts will play a key role. Now one must consider the question of qualifying space joining methods that will be applied by robots as well as those being applied by humans. New NDE methods/space qualification of detectors: For every joining method that is used here on earth, there are various non-destructive inspection techniques, such as ultrasonic inspection and x-ray inspection. It will be necessary to develop inspection techniques for all joining methods that will be approved for use in space. The detector must also be space qualified. Development testing: As a new concept for space habitat goes through its conceptual phases, various development tests are anticipated for the first time. Some elements cannot be adequately tested except in space itself. Flight check-out: Assuming that one is assembling the Mars spacecraft in earth orbit and that all of the preceding questions have been resolved, the day finally arrives when the fully assembled vehicle is ready for occupancy and journeying to Mars. It will be necessary to conduct a final flight readiness review, countdown procedure, and certification before the vehicle is permitted to depart for Mars with humans on board. When an error is found on earth, one can disassemble, go to a storeroom, pull a spare, or perform other readily available services to correct the anomaly. What should be done to correct errors and how it should be done in space needs to be addressed.
    Keywords: ENGINEERING (GENERAL)
    Type: Second Annual Symposium; p 526-538
    Format: text
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  • 10
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    Unknown
    In:  CASI
    Publication Date: 2004-10-02
    Description: During 1989-1990 the Center for Space Construction developed the Launch-On-Time (L-O-T) Model to help asses and improve the likelihood of successfully supporting space construction requiring multi-logistic delivery flights. The model chose a reference by which the L-O-T probability and improvements to L-O-T probability can be judged. The measure of improvement was chosen as the percent reduction in E(S(sub N)), the total expected amount of unscheduled 'hold' time. We have also previously developed an approach to determining the reduction in E(S(sub N)) by reducing some of the causes of unscheduled holds and increasing the speed at which the problems causing the holds may be 'fixed.' We provided a mathematical (binary linear programming) model for measuring the percent reduction in E(S(sub N)) given such improvements. In this presentation we shall exercise the model which was developed and draw some conclusions about the following: methods used, data available and needed, and make suggestions for areas of improvement in 'real world' application of the model.
    Keywords: SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
    Type: Second Annual Symposium; p 89-104
    Format: text
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