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  • 1
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    Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India, Department of Economic and Policy Research
    Publication Date: 2019-03-06
    Description: This paper examines the usefulness of survey-based information on inflation expectations of households in the analysis of inflation dynamics in India. As household inflation expectations do not satisfy the statistical properties of rationality and unbiasedness, hybrid versions of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) are used to study whether survey-based measures of inflation expectations can be used as proxy for forward looking expectations to predict inflation in India. While both 3-months ahead and 1-year ahead household inflation expectations emerge statistically significant in explaining and predicting inflation, effectively they work as substitutes of backward looking expectations given that household expectations are found to be adaptive. When transmission of inflation expectations to inflation is assessed through wage dynamics, no robust evidence is found for expectations induced wage pressures influencing CPI inflation. Shortterm food and fuel shocks explain significant part of variations in inflation expectations of households. Notwithstanding limited evidence on spillover of inflation expectations of households to wages and prices, the high degree of observed inflation persistence and significant sensitivity of inflation expectations to food and fuel shocks warrant sustained emphasis of monetary policy on wellanchored inflation expectations.
    Keywords: E52 ; E70 ; ddc:330 ; Inflation Expectations ; NKPC ; Wage-Price Dynamics ; Rationality ; Unbiasedness
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Mumbai: EPW Engage | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-12-10
    Description: A borrower may hesitate to borrow from her close relatives and family members as it costs them in terms of reduction in social insurance in the case of default. This invisible cost reduces credit risk. India’s household indebtedness survey shows some evidence on these borrowing preferences. This perspective on borrowing decisions derived from the community can be used as one of the dimensions in credit risk evaluation and in policy formulation.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Network ; Trust ; Credit Risk
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2020-01-15
    Description: Paper models lender’s decision based on project riskiness, trust from borrower’s socioeconomic network, and social cost of default for the borrower. The paper suggests a methodology to estimate aggregate level of trustworthiness of borrower in socio-economic network. Our model links the social cost of default to credit default. A relatively safer project executed by a borrower with lower social cost of default is likely to be a willful defaulter. Similarly, relatively safer project executed by a borrower with high social cost of default is likely to pay-back the loan.
    Keywords: D85 ; G21 ; L14 ; ddc:330 ; Social Economic Network ; Trust ; Credit Risk
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:preprint
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  • 4
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    Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India, Department of Economic and Policy Research
    Publication Date: 2018-12-15
    Description: Financial capability of an individual is the ability to use and manage financial products for current and future financial needs with adequate financial knowledge. This paper examines financial capability on four dimensionsfinancial management to meet current needs, future financial planning, financial products management, and financial knowledge using a sample of street vendors in Bhubaneswar, India. A financial capability index for each individual in the sample has been calculated in a manner that satisfies monotonicity, anonymity, normalisation, uniformity, shortfall sensitivity and hiatus sensitivity to level axioms. We find that education, age, business experience, and daily turnover significantly affect the financial capability of an individual. Moreover, street vendors in regions with higher number of bank branches are found to have significantly higher financial capability
    Keywords: O18 ; R58 ; O20 ; ddc:330 ; Financial capability ; financial literacy ; financial inclusion
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-12-05
    Description: Credit rationing arising out of informational asymmetry and lack of collateral is a well-recognised economic constraint in the credit market. These constraints get magnified for small businesses. This paper attempts to capture the dimension of trustworthiness (calculative trust) by designing a multi-period, incentivised payment structure that will induce economic agents to reveal the existence of private information about any projects or true intentions of paying up the credit that is going to fund the project. The model dynamically estimates the collateral needed by taking into account the truthfulness of the borrower. The proposed design is compared with the benchmark model - credit scoring-based model. Randomised simulations are carried out for the ex ante solution for the borrower. We find that the proposed design outperforms from the perspective of lenders when the probability of default of any project is less than 80 per cent. Our simulation result also finds that building trust helps small business owner to significantly reduce the need for collateral.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Calculative trust ; collateral
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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