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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2014-11-17
    Description: Sovereign risk is defined as a country?s ability-to-pay and willingness-to-pay its debt. This paper examines how cabinet reshuffles affecting the ministry of finance or economics are perceived by sovereign bond holders in twelve Latin American countries from 1992 to 2005. We find that such political news instantaneously increases bond spreads. Furthermore, spreads trend significantly upward in the 40 days leading up to the minister change, before flattening out on a higher level in the 40 days thereafter. Evidence suggests that uncertainty about the future course of economic policy and the government?s willingness-to-pay increases refinancing costs for respective emerging markets.
    Keywords: G14 ; H63 ; F34 ; F30 ; ddc:330 ; political instability ; country risk ; bond spreads ; Latin America ; Portfolio-Investition ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Politische Stabilität ; Risiko ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Schätzung ; Lateinamerika
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2011-08-24
    Description: We find a significant export wage premium for higher-skilled workers and a significant export wage discount for lower-skilled workers, using a matched employer-employee data set for German manufacturing firms. Estimates suggest that up to one third of the overall skill premia is associated with exporting. These results imply that increasing trade contributes to widening wage inequality by skill level in manufacturing. But an increase in exports also diminishes wage discrimination due to gender or nationality. In this way, trade contributes to narrowing wage gaps and mitigates wage inequality in German manufacturing.
    Keywords: F16 ; J31 ; J70 ; ddc:330 ; exports ; wages ; wage inequality ; wage discrimination ; skill premia ; linked employer-employee data
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Description: In der aktuellen wirtschaftspolitischen Diskussion wird häufig auf stärkeren Koordinierungsbedarf in der Lohnpolitik hingewiesen. Nach Ansicht von Hartmut Egger und Daniel Etzel, Universität Bayreuth, sind eine stärkere Koordinierung arbeitsmarktpolitischer Maßnahmen und eine kritische Debatte über gemeinsame arbeitsmarktpolitische Ziele innerhalb der Europäischen Union grundsätzlich sinnvoll. Allerdings können Regelungen in diesem Bereich jeweils nur unter Berücksichtigung der vorherrschenden Tarifautonomie getroffen werden. Ob aber eine derartige Koordination auch die gesamtwirtschaftliche Wohlfahrt erhöhen könne, sei bisher nicht Gegenstand der wissenschaftlichen Untersuchung gewesen. Hagen Lesch, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft, hält eine Korrektur der Lohnstückkosten der Defizitländer relativ zu denen der Überschussländer für sinnvoll, um die Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte abzubauen. Eine Koordinierung der nationalen Lohnpolitiken könnte diesen Prozess beschleunigen. Es bestehe derzeit aber weder ein Koordinationsanreiz noch eine allgemein akzeptierte Koordinationsregel. Holger Zemanek, Universität Leipzig, lehnt eine direkte bzw. supranationale Koordinierung der Lohnpolitik ab. Ein europäischer Konsens, dass Lohnsteigerungen nicht das Produktivitätswachstum übersteigen sollten, sei aber zu begrüßen. Die europaweit restriktiven Fiskalpolitiken sowie die lohnpolitische Stabilität Deutschlands stellen, seiner Meinung nach, aber bereits eine marktwirtschaftliche, indirekte Koordinierung der Lohnpolitiken in Europa dar. Auch Christoph Moser, ETH Zürich, findet eine Koordinierung der nationalen Lohnpolitik in Europa nicht förderlich für den Abbau der innereuropäischen Ungleichgewichte.
    Keywords: J30 ; ddc:330 ; Lohnpolitik Wirtschaftspolitik Koordination Ungleichgewichtstheorie Interregionaler Handel Lohnstückkosten Preiswettbewerb EU-Staaten Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-01-14
    Description: Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agencies (ECAs) is that the private market is unable to provide adequate insurance for all risks associated with exports. As a consequence, firms' export activities are limited in the absence of insurance provision. Using a novel data set on guarantees we estimate the effect of guarantees in a static and dynamic panel model. We find a statistically and economically significant positive effect of public export guarantees on exports which indicates that export promotion is indeed effective. Furthermore, political risk turns out to be a robust determinant of exports and hence should be taken into account in any empirical model of trade.
    Keywords: C23 ; H81 ; F13 ; ddc:330 ; public export credit guarantees ; political risk ; panel regression ; Exportgarantie ; Wirtschaftspolitische Wirkungsanalyse ; Export ; Schätzung ; Deutschland ; Länderrisiko ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2019-01-14
    Description: Labor market studies on the effects of minimum wages are typically confined to the sector or worker group directly affected. We present a two-sector search model in which one sector is more productive than the other one and thus, pays higher wages. In such a framework, setting a minimum wage in the unproductive sector to reduce the wage gap causes a negative spillover effect on the productive sector. While the effect on job creation in the (targeted) unproductive sector is ambiguous, job creation in the (non-targeted) productive sector unambiguously decreases. This is driven by the fact that a minimum wage increases the outside option of unemployed workers - contributing to wage determination in the productive sector. Welfare effects are ambiguous. In principle, we cannot exclude that a minimum wage in a two-sector search model is welfare enhancing due to the possibility of an above optimal level of productive employment since firms do not take into account the effects of their individual job creation on aggregated search costs.
    Keywords: E24 ; J31 ; J64 ; J60 ; ddc:330 ; minimum wages ; matching models ; two sectors ; unemployment ; welfare ; Mindestlohn ; Wirtschaftspolitische Wirkungsanalyse ; Mehr-Sektoren-Modell ; Arbeitsuche ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; Matching ; Wohlfahrtseffekt ; Theorie
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Göttingen: Verein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Entwicklungsländer
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: Central bank governor changes in emerging markets may convey important signals about future monetary policy. Based on a new daily data set, this paper examines the reactions of foreign exchange markets, domestic stock market indices and sovereign bond spreads to central bank governor changes. The data cover 20 emerging markets over the period 1992-2006. We find that the replacement of a central bank governor negatively affects financial markets on the announcement day. This negative effect is mainly driven by irregular changes, i.e., changes occurring before the scheduled end of tenure, sending negative signals about perceived central bank independence. Personal characteristics of the central banker, to the contrary, are less important for market reactions. We find no evidence that changes in the central banker's conservatism affect the reactions of the markets. Finally, market reactions are similar in countries with high and low degrees of central bank independence.
    Keywords: E58 ; E42 ; F30 ; G14 ; ddc:330 ; central bank governor turnover ; monetary policy ; emerging markets ; risk premium
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Are product standards protectionism in disguise? This paper estimates the costs of non- compliance with U.S. product standards, using a new database on U.S. import refusals from 2002 to 2012. We find that import refusals significantly decrease exports to the United States. This trade reducing effect is driven by developing countries and by refusals without any product sample analysis, in particular during the Subprime Crisis and its aftermath. This empirical result is consistent with (but does not prove) the existence of counter-cyclical, hidden protectionism due to non-tariff barriers to trade in the United States.
    Keywords: F13 ; F14 ; O24 ; F63 ; ddc:330 ; Hidden protectionism ; international trade ; developing countries ; import refusals ; regulatory costs ; disaggregated ; United States
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: The Doha multilateral round of trade negotiations sponsored by the WTO has been dragging on for over a decade, with no end in sight. In this short paper we assess empirically what determines the duration of trade negotiations, focusing on the span between the start of trade talks and their conclusion. We use data from 88 regional trade agreements between 1988 and 2009, and a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model. Four factors are robust determinants of the length of RTA negotiations. Negotiations are more protracted when there are more countries at the negotiation table, and when the countries are not from the same region. Negotiations between more open and richer countries are also finished more quickly.
    Keywords: F13 ; F51 ; F53 ; ddc:330 ; regional ; GATT ; WTO ; duration ; income ; data ; empirical ; Cox ; survival ; Handelsabkommen ; WTO-Regeln ; Politische Entscheidung ; Dauer ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Dresden: Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE)
    Publication Date: 2017-12-21
    Description: We set up a trade model with heterogeneous firms and a worker population that is heterogeneous in two dimensions: workers are either skilled or unskilled, and within each skill category there is a continuum of abilities. Workers with high abilities, both skilled and unskilled, are matched to firms with high productivities, and this leads to wage differentials within each skill category across firms. Self-selection of the most productive firms into exporting generates an exporter wage premium, and our framework with skilled and unskilled workers allows us to decompose this premium into its skill-specific components. We employ linked employer-employee data from Germany to structurally estimate the parameters of the model. Using these parameter estimates, we compute an average exporter wage premium of 5 percent. The decomposition by skill turns out to be quantitatively highly relevant, with exporting firms paying no wage premium at all to their unskilled workers, while the premium for skilled workers is 12 percent.
    Keywords: C31 ; F12 ; F15 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; Exporter wage premium ; Heterogeneous firms ; Ability differences of workers ; Positive assortative matching ; Trade and wage inequality
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: This paper empirically investigates the economic and political factors that affect a country's likelihood to sign an arrangement with the IMF and the determinants of the financial size of such a program. Arguably the world and the global financial architecture underwent structural changes after the ending of Cold War and so did the role of the IMF. Hence, we update and extend the work of Sturm et al. (2005) by employing a panel model for 165 countries that focuses on the post-Cold War era, i.e., 1990-2009. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that some economic and political variables are robustly related to these two dimensions of IMF program decisions. Furthermore, we show that it is important to distinguish between concessional and non-concessional IMF loans.
    Keywords: O19 ; F33 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; lending facilities ; extreme bounds analysis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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