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  • 1
    Call number: ZSP-180-B45
    In: Berichte aus dem Zentrum für Meeres- und Klimaforschung
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 208 S. : graph. Darst., überw. Kt.
    ISSN: 0947-7136
    Series Statement: Berichte aus dem Zentrum für Meeres- und Klimaforschung : Reihe B, Ozeanographie 45
    Language: German
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 2
    Call number: ZSP-180-B42 ; ZSP-180-B42(2. Ex.)
    In: Berichte aus dem Zentrum für Meeres- und Klimaforschung
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 134 S. : graph. Darst., Kt.
    Series Statement: Berichte aus dem Zentrum für Meeres- und Klimaforschung : Reihe B, Ozeanographie 42
    Language: English
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
    Branch Library: AWI Library
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-11-06
    Description: This paper has a twofold objective: First, to estimate the changes in landings value by 2030 for two Mexican coastal fisheries, specifically shrimp and sardine fisheries, as a consequence of climate change; and second, to discuss the implications of such impacts for food security. A dynamic panel model was used for the Mexican fisheries sector, with data from 1990 through 2009. The results suggest that shrimp production will be negatively affected, while in contrast, the sardine fishery is expected to benefit from the increase in temperature. Most losses/gains would be observed in the NW Mexican Pacific, where the fishing sector has an important role in the local economy, representing a risk to food security in both direct and indirect ways.
    Keywords: C23 ; Q22 ; Q51 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; climate change ; crop production ; scenarios ; food security ; futures ; modeling ; monetary estimation ; climate change ; Mexico ; shrimp fishery ; sardine fishery ; food security
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-05-22
    Description: This paper has a two-fold objective. First, to estimate the changes in landings value by 2030 of two Mexican coastal fisheries: shrimp and sardines as a consequence of climate change. And second, to discuss the implications for food security of such impacts. We estimated output equations using a dynamic panel model for the Mexican fisheries sector with data from 1990 through 2009. Scenarios were generated for the expected changes in fish production. Our results suggest that shrimp production will be negatively affected in about 1.1% in decreasing catch for every 1% of temperature increase by 2030. In contrast, the sardine fishery would benefit by approximately a 4% increase in production for every 1% increase in temperature. For the shrimp fishery, losses amount from US$ 95 million (discount rate = 4%) to US$ 444 million (discount rate = 1%). For the sardine fishery, gains range from US$ 46 million (discount rate = 4%) to US$ 184 million (discount rate = 1%). Most losses/gains would be observed in the NW Mexican Pacific, where the fishing sector has an important role in the local economy and represents therefore a risk to food security on a local basis.
    Keywords: Q51 ; C23 ; Q22 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; monetary estimation ; climate change ; Mexico ; shrimp fishery ; sardine fishery ; food security
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-08-27
    Description: The climate in Mexico and Central America is influenced by the Pacific and the Atlantic oceanic basins and atmospheric conditions over continental North and South America. These factors and important ocean–atmosphere coupled processes make the region’s climate a great challenge for global and regional climate modeling. We explore the benefits that coupled regional climate models may introduce in the representation of the regional climate with a set of coupled and uncoupled simulations forced by reanalysis and global model data. Uncoupled simulations tend to stay close to the large-scale patterns of the driving fields, particularly over the ocean, while over land they are modified by the regional atmospheric model physics and the improved orography representation. The regional coupled model adds to the reanalysis forcing the air–sea interaction, which is also better resolved than in the global model. Simulated fields are modified over the ocean, improving the representation of the key regional structures such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Caribbean Low Level Jet. Higher resolution leads to improvements over land and in regions of intense air–sea interaction, e.g., off the coast of California. The coupled downscaling improves the representation of the Mid Summer Drought and the meridional rainfall distribution in southernmost Central America. Over the regions of humid climate, the coupling corrects the wet bias of the uncoupled runs and alleviates the dry bias of the driving model, yielding a rainfall seasonal cycle similar to that in the reanalysis-driven experiments.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2013-09-01
    Description: The urge for higher resolution climate change scenarios has been widely recognized, particularly for conducting impact assessment studies. Statistical downscaling methods have shown to be very convenient for this task, mainly because of their lower computational requirements in comparison with nested limited-area regional models or very high resolution Atmosphere–ocean General Circulation Models. Nevertheless, although some of the limitations of statistical downscaling methods are widely known and have been discussed in the literature, in this paper it is argued that the current approach for statistical downscaling does not guard against misspecified statistical models and that the occurrence of spurious results is likely if the assumptions of the underlying probabilistic model are not satisfied. In this case, the physics included in climate change scenarios obtained by general circulation models, could be replaced by spatial patterns and magnitudes produced by statistically inadequate models. Illustrative examples are provided for monthly temperature for a region encompassing Mexico and part of the United States. It is found that the assumptions of the probabilistic models do not hold for about 70 % of the gridpoints, parameter instability and temporal dependence being the most common problems. As our examples reveal, automated statistical downscaling “black-box” models are to be considered as highly prone to produce misleading results. It is shown that the Probabilistic Reduction approach can be incorporated as a complete and internally consistent framework for securing the statistical adequacy of the downscaling models and for guiding the respecification process, in a way that prevents the lack of empirical validity that affects current methods. ©2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
    Print ISSN: 0165-0009
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-1480
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2012-02-01
    Description: This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making. ©2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Print ISSN: 0165-0009
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-1480
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2006-07-01
    Description: An 8-year database of sea surface temperature (SST), 7 years of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) ocean color images, wind fields, and numerical model results are analyzed to identify regions and periods of coastal upwelling on the western and southern shelves of the Gulf of Mexico. On the seasonal scale, it is found that on the Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and southwestern Texas–Louisiana shelves there are upwelling favorable winds from April to August, when southeasterly winds are dominant and cold SST anomalies associated with upwelling are observed along their coasts. However, during summer, values of chlorophyll-a concentration are lower than those in autumn and winter, which are high due to advection of old bloom biological material from upstream. During winter, there is a cold front on the Tamaulipas shelf produced by advection of cold water from the Texas–Louisiana shelf and not due to upwelling. On the eastern Campeche Bank, persistent upwelling is observed due to favorable winds throughout the year with cold SST and large chlorophyll-a content along the inner shelf from May to September. On the Tamaulipas shelf, the summer upwelling delays the annual SST peak until September, while in most of the Gulf SST peaks in August. This difference is due to the end of the upwelling favorable wind conditions and the September seasonal current reversal. ©2006 Springer-Verlag
    Print ISSN: 1616-7341
    Electronic ISSN: 1616-7228
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2013-11-10
    Description: The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
    Print ISSN: 1752-0894
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-0908
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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