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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2013-07-18
    Description: While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed spatial panel data models by maximum likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (19932004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with new economic geography theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial error models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.
    Keywords: F21 ; F23 ; C31 ; C33 ; ddc:330 ; foreign direct investment ; spatial econometrics ; panel data ; Direktinvestition ; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht ; Maximum-Likelihood-Methode ; Schätzung ; Spanien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the relationship between global trade and global economic activity is a temporary phenomenon or constitutes a lasting change. It finds that global trade growth has been primarily dampened by two factors. First, compositional factors, including geographical shifts in economic activity and changes in the composition of aggregate demand, have weighed on the sensitivity of trade to economic activity. Second, structural developments, such as waning growth in global value chains, a rise in non-tariff protectionist measures and a declining marginal impact of financial deepening, are dampening the support from factors that boosted global trade in the past. Notwithstanding the particularly pronounced weakness in 2015 that is assessed to be mostly a temporary phenomenon owing to a number of country-specific adverse shocks, the upside potential for trade over the medium term appears to be limited. The “new normal” for global trade can therefore be expected to look broadly similar to the weakness observed over recent years on average. In this sense, buoyant trade dynamics in the 1990s and early 2000s may have been what was exceptional, rather than the slowdown over recent years.
    Keywords: F10 ; F13 ; F14 ; F15 ; ddc:330 ; frictions in global trade ; global trade slowdown ; global value chains ; protectionism ; trade elasticity
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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