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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-08-24
    Description: Policies and external shocks affecting agriculture, the main source of income for rural households, can be expected to have a significant impact on poverty. This paper studies the case of Uganda. Throughout the 1990s, more than 90 percent of its poor lived in rural areas and, during the same period, large international price fluctuations as well as an extensive domestic deregulation affected the coffee sector, its main source of export revenues. Using data from three household surveys covering the 1990s, this paper confirms a strong correlation between changes in coffee prices (in a liberalized market) and poverty reduction. This is clearly highlighted by comparing the performance of different households grouped according to their dependence on coffee farming. Regression analysis (based on pooled data from the three surveys) of consumption expenditure on coffee-related variables, other controls and time fixed effects, corroborates that the mentioned correlation is not spurious. We also find that while both poor and rich farmers enter the coffee sector, the price boom benefits relatively more the poorer households, whereas the liberalization seems to create more opportunities for richer farmers. Finally, notwithstanding the importance of the coffee price boom, the agricultural policy framework and the thorough structural reforms in which the coffee market liberalization was embedded have certainly played a role in triggering overall agricultural growth. These factors appear to matter especially in the second half of the 1990s when prices went down but poverty reduction continued.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Ländliche Armut ; Ländliches Einkommen ; Kaffee ; Außenhandelspreis ; Uganda
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-08-24
    Description: Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Armut ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Internationale Handelspolitik ; WTO-Regeln ; Brasilien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Göttingen: Verein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Entwicklungsländer
    Publication Date: 2018-09-11
    Description: Diversification into non-agricultural activities in rural areas can be broadly classified as either survival-led or opportunity-led. The existence of these two types of non-agricultural activities implies a U-shaped relationship between the share of income derived from non-agricultural activities and household wealth as well as total household income. Survival-led engagement in non-agricultural activities would be inequality-decreasing through increasing the incomes of the poorer parts of the population and would reduce poverty. Opportunity-led diversification, by contrast, would increase inequality and have a minor effect on poverty, as it tends to be confined to non-poor households. Using data from a household survey conducted by ourselves in Western Kenya, we find the overall share of non-agricultural income in this very poor region to be important, but below the sub-Saharan African average. Multivariate analyses confirm the existence of both survival-led and opportunity-led diversification. Yet, the poverty and inequality implications of the differently motivated diversification strategies differ somewhat from our expectations. As expected, we find high-return activities to be confined to richer households, while both rich and poor households are engaged in low-return activities. Very poor households even appear to be excluded from the latter. Simple simulation exercises illustrate the inequality-increasing and very limited poverty effects of increases in high-return income, whereas increased low-return income shows substantial poverty reduction leverage. Our findings indicate that rural households do not only face asset constraints, but also very limited or relatively risky high-return opportunities outside agriculture.
    Keywords: I31 ; O17 ; Q12 ; ddc:330 ; Non-agricultural activities ; Inequality ; Income diversification ; Dorfwirtschaft ; Landwirtschaftlicher Kleinbetrieb ; Diversifikation ; Ländliches Einkommen ; Einkommensverteilung ; Kenia (West) ; Afrika südlich der Sahara
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Hannover: Verein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Entwicklungsländer
    Publication Date: 2018-09-11
    Description: This article illustrates changing growth regimes in Uganda from pro-poor growth in the 1990s to growth without poverty reduction, actually even a slight increase in poverty, after 2000. Not surprisingly, we find that good agricultural performance is the key determinant of direct pro-poor growth in the 1990s as well as lower agricultural growth is the root cause of the recent increase in poverty. Yet after 2000, low agricultural growth appears to have induced important employment shifts out of agriculture, which have dampened the increase in poverty. We also assess the indirect way of pro-poor growth by analysing the incidence of public spending and the tax system and find that indirect pro-poor growth has only been achieved to a limited extend.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Hamburg: German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: In light of the surge in large-scale farms in developing countries, concerns have been raised that smallholders may be negatively affected. There is, however, very little evidence beyond case studies to support these claims. Drawing on nationally representative household data sets and an inventory of large-scale farms in Zambia, this study investigates the relationship between large-scale farms and smallholders. First, we analyse the geographical contexts of wards that host large-scale farms and show that large-scale farms are found in wards with good infrastructure and soil quality. Second, we adopt a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the impacts of large-scale farms on smallholders' area cultivated, maize yields, and access to fertiliser. We find that smallholders in wards with large-scale farms increase their area cultivated and maize yields, but have lower fertiliser usage. This hints at positive spillovers at the extensive and intensive margins but not at improved access to agricultural inputs. It is likely that these results are also driven by the emergence of medium-scale farms in these regions.
    Keywords: Q12 ; Q15 ; Q18 ; ddc:330 ; large-scale farms ; yields ; smallholders ; spillovers ; Zambia
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: Social transfer programmes in developing countries are designed to contribute to poverty reduction by increasing the income of the poor in order to ensure minimal living standards. In addition, social transfers provide a safety net for the vulnerable, who are typically not covered by contributory social security. The question of how effective such programmes are in achieving these aims has been the subject of numerous impact evaluations. However, the optimal design of such programmes is still unclear. Even less is known about whether the adoption and implementation of transfer programmes is really driven by poverty and neediness or whether other factors also have an influence. To investigate these and other research questions, we have developed a new data set entitled Non-Contributory Social Transfer Programmes (NSTP) in Developing Countries. One advantage of this data set is that it traces 186 non-contributory programmes from 101 countries back in time and presents them in panel form for the period up until 2015. The second advantage is that it contains all the details regarding the various programmes' designs as well as information on costs and coverage in a coded format and thus facilitates both comparative quantitative and in-depth qualitative analyses. While describing the data we discuss a number of examples of how the data set can be used to explore different issues related to social policies in developing countries. We present suggestive evidence that the adoption of social transfer programmes is not based only on pro-poor motives, but rather that social policy choices differ between political regimes.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; social protection ; social assistance ; social transfers ; developing countries ; data ; political economy of social policy
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Hamburg: German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: We analyse the effects of environmental taxes on welfare and carbon emissions at the household level for the case of Mexico. The integrated welfare-environmental analysis, which is based on a censored energy consumer demand system, extends previous work in two ways. First, the estimation of a full matrix of substitution elasticities allows us to test the necessity of incorporating second-order effects into the welfare analysis. Second, the substitution elasticities derived from the demand system are used to estimate the shortrun CO2 emission-reduction potential. We find that first-order approximations of welfare effects provide reasonable estimates, particularly for carbon taxes. Analog to evidence in other low- and middle-income countries, the taxation of all energy items is found to be regressive, with the exception of motor fuels. The inclusion of CH4 and N2O in a carbon tax regime comes with particularly regressive impacts because of its strong effects on food prices. The analysis of the emission implications of different tax scenarios indicates that short-run emission reductions at the household level can be substantial - though the effects depend on how revenue is recycled. This effectiveness combined with moderate and manageable adverse distributional impacts renders the carbon tax a preferred mitigation instrument. Considering the large effect of food price increases on poverty and the limited additional emission-saving potential, the inclusion of CH4 and N2O in a carbon tax regime is not advisable.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; climate policy ; energy policy ; Mexico ; poverty ; distributional effects
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: We study the welfare, energy poverty, and CO2 emission implications of energy price change scenarios in Indonesia. Our analysis extends previous analyses of energy price impacts at the household level in several ways. First, by employing a household energy demand system (QUAIDS), we are able to distinguish between first- and second-order welfare effects over the income distribution. Our analysis shows considerable heterogeneity of welfare impacts. For gasoline and electricity, first-order calculations overestimate welfare effects by 10 to 20 per cent for price changes between 20 and 50 per cent. Second, our results point to the ownership of energy-processing durables as another source of impact heterogeneity. Poor households that own these goods may be hit particularly strongly by energy price increases. Third, we extend the welfare analysis beyond the money-metric utility effects and look at energy poverty, which is understood as the absence of or imperfect access to reliable and clean modern energy services. Drawing on the estimated demand function, we find that price increases have substantial effects on energy poverty. Fourth, our analysis explicitly considers the emissions effects of energy price scenarios. We find that reduced household energy demand implies a substantial reduction in emissions. The analysis thus indicates that energy prices may serve as an effective mitigation instrument but also have important adverse welfare effects. The latter can, however, be mitigated by appropriate compensation policies.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; energy subsidies ; climate policy ; poverty ; distributional effects ; energy poverty
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: Engagement in non-agricultural activities in rural areas can be classified into survival-led or opportunity-led. Survival-led diversification would decrease inequality by increasing the incomes of poorer households and thus reduce poverty. By contrast, opportunity-led diversification would increase inequality and have a minor effect on poverty, as it tends to be confined to non-poor households. Using data from Western Kenya, we confirm the existence of the differently motivated diversification strategies. Yet, the poverty and inequality implications differ somewhat from our expectations. Our findings indicate that in addition to asset constraints, rural households also face limited or relatively risky high-return opportunities outside agriculture.
    Description: Die Aufnahme von Tätigkeiten außerhalb der Landwirtschaft kann in ländlichen Gebieten sowohl durch die Notwendigkeit zu überleben motiviert sein als auch durch das Vorhandensein günstiger Gelegenheiten. Diversifizierung aufgrund des Überlebensmotivs verringert Ungleichheit, da das Einkommen ärmerer Haushalte wächst und somit die Armut sinkt. Diversifizierung aufgrund des Gelegenheitsmotivs steigert hingegen Ungleichheit und hat nur geringe Auswirkung auf die Armut, da sie sich für gewöhnlich auf nichtarme Haushalte beschränkt. Anhand von Daten aus Westkenia bestätigen wir die Existenz der unterschiedlich motivierten Diversifizierungsstrategien. Die Auswirkungen auf Armut und Verteilung entsprechen jedoch nur teilweise unseren Erwartungen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Haushalte in ländlichen Gebieten neben Kapitalbeschränkungen begrenzte oder relativ riskante profitable Möglichkeiten außerhalb der Landwirtschaft haben, Katalysator für den Zerfall des seit Jahrzehnten etablierten Zweiparteiensystems des Landes.
    Keywords: Q12 ; O17 ; I31 ; ddc:330 ; income diversification ; non-agricultural activities ; inequality ; poverty ; sub-Saharan Africa ; Kenya ; Dorfwirtschaft ; Landwirtschaftlicher Kleinbetrieb ; Diversifikation ; Ländliches Einkommen ; Einkommensverteilung ; Kenia (West) ; Afrika südlich der Sahara
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Hamburg: German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: This paper reviews the effectiveness and efficiency of key policy instruments for MDG (Millennium Development Goals) achievement. We first demonstrate that average MDG progress is likely to be too slow to meet the education and health sector targets in a number of developing countries. We also show that MDG achievement can be described by a transition path with declining rates of progress. More detailed analysis reveals that the transition towards universal primary enrollment in poor countries with low initial enrollment has accelerated considerably in the more recent past. The paper then focuses on the role of demand- versus supply-side factors in social service utilization in education and health. The main policy conclusions of the review reflect some of the key determinants of MDG achievement: First, specific single-policy interventions can have a considerable impact on social service utilization and specific human development outcomes. For example, improving access to basic health services, in particular to vaccination, has been a key factor in reducing child mortality rates in a number of very poor countries. Second, demand-side policies have proved extremely effective, for example, in increasing school enrollment and attainment levels. However, there may be more scope for targeting the demand side in the health sector. Third, policy effectiveness and efficiency are highly dependent on initial conditions and the specificities of the respective policy. Fourth, complementarities between MDG targets, in particular social service utilization, are likely to be very important.
    Description: Ein primäres Anliegen dieses Beitrages ist die Untersuchung der Effektivität und Effizienz von Politikinstrumenten zu Erreichung der Weltentwicklungsziele. Zu Beginn wird gezeigt, dass der durchschnittliche Fortschritt zu langsam ist, um die angestrebten Ziele im Gesundheits- und Bildungssektor in einer Vielzahl von Entwicklungsländern zu erreichen. Festzustellen ist, dass sich der Transitionspfad durch eine abnehmende Fortschrittsgeschwindigkeit auszeichnet. Detailliertere Analysen zeigen, dass es in jüngster Vergangenheit beachtliche Erfolge bezüglich des Besuches von Primarschulen in armen Ländern - bei sehr schlechter Ausgangslage - gegeben hat. Ein weiterer Aspekt der Untersuchung ist die Rolle von nachfrage- versus angebotsorientierten Faktoren, welche die Nutzung von öffentlichen Dienstleistungen im Gesundheitsund Bildungssektor beeinflussen. - Erstens können spezifische einzelne Interventionen eine herausragende Wirkung in Bezug auf die Nutzung öffentlicher Dienstleistungen und direkter Entwicklungsindikatoren erzielen. So ist beispielsweise der Zugang zu grundlegenden Gesundheitsdienstleistungen, insbesondere Impfungen, ein bedeutsamer Faktor für die stark abnehmenden Kindersterblichkeitsraten in einer ganzen Reihe von Ländern. Dennoch gibt es offenbar nicht ausgeschöpfte Potentiale im Gesundheitssektor. - Zweitens haben sich nachfrageorientierte Maßnahmen - insbesondere zur Erhöhung der Einschulungsraten - als sehr effektiv herausgestellt. - Drittens sind sowohl die Effektivität - als auch die Effizienz von politischen Maßnahmen entscheidend von den Ausgangsbedingungen und Charakteristika des jeweiligen Instruments abhängig. - Viertens sind allem Anschein nach die Komplementaritäten zwischen unterschiedlichen Weltentwicklungszielen von großer Bedeutung.
    Keywords: H51 ; H52 ; I18 ; I28 ; I38 ; O21 ; ddc:330 ; Millennium Development Goals ; Public Services ; Millennium Development Goals ; Bildungspolitik ; Gesundheitspolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Entwicklungsländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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