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  • 1
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    A Coruña: Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Orthodox and heterodox economists have promoted different liberalization measures in the economy in accordance with its vision for agriculture and manufacturing sectors. In this paper, we try to determine the impact of external terms of trade and domestic (the latter considers foreign trade policy) on the product of both sectors and unemployment rates. To this end, we use SVAR models with long-run restrictions and quarterly data for Argentina's economy, covering the period 1993:1-2011:1. It is noted that the variance of agricultural GDP is mostly explained by shocks in the external terms of trade, unlike manufacturing GDP which domestics are more relevant (other than their own shock). Moreover, the volatility of unemployment rates responds more to shocks in manufacturing GDP and in the domestic terms of trade.
    Keywords: C1 ; F1 ; O1 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 2
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    A Coruña: Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña
    Publication Date: 2016-09-24
    Description: This paper analyzes the link between the current account and the terms of trade, in the case of Argentina's economy. SVAR models with long-term restrictions and annual data covering the period 1986-2014 are used. The response functions suggest a positive reaction from the current account to shocks in the terms of trade (short term), supporting the existence of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, while variance decomposition shows that the terms of trade account for about 18% of the variance of the current account, result similar to other developing countries
    Keywords: C3 ; F32 ; ddc:330 ; current account ; terms of trade ; Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect ; SVAR models
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 3
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    A Coruña: Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña
    Publication Date: 2016-09-24
    Description: The recent international financial crisis has highlighted the role of real asset prices in the macroeconomic fluctuations of advanced economies. This paper analyzes the effects of some external and domestic shocks in the real prices of agricultural land in Argentina economy and compared the results with the situation observed in the United States. To this end, we used VEC models (vector error correction) and annual data covering the period 1960-2012. The estimation results show that real GDP would be the most relevant factor to explain the volatility in the land prices in Argentina, in contrast with the United States where the real interest rate would be the main factor. The estimates also include other macroeconomic shocks (international real prices of agricultural commodities, general price index, real exchange rate) to explain the variability in the real prices of these assets.
    Keywords: C1 ; E3 ; F0 ; F4 ; ddc:330 ; international financial crisis ; real prices of agricultural land ; external and domestic shocks ; VEC models
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 4
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    A Coruña: Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña
    Publication Date: 2016-09-24
    Description: Dornbusch’s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis (1976) is a central building block in international macroeconomics. This paper analyzes the effects of monetary and other macroeconomic shocks on the real exchange rate in the case of a small economy like Argentina. The paper uses SVAR models with short term restrictions, and quarterly data of this country, covering the period 1993-2014. Results show that a contractionary monetary shock generates an appreciation of the real exchange rate in the short term and then a gradual depreciation of this variable, as the hypothesis of Dornbusch suggests.
    Keywords: C32 ; E52 ; F31 ; F41 ; ddc:330 ; monetary and other macroeconomic shocks ; real exchange rate ; SVAR models ; Argentina economy
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 5
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    A Coruña: Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: This paper investigates the impact of external price shocks on private consumption and investment and the sources of fluctuations in these variables, in the case of Argentina, employing structural VEC models (Structural Vector Error Correction) and quarterly data, covering the period 1993Q1-2017Q1. To that end, short and long-terms restrictions are imposed and five structural shocks are identified: terms of trade, consumption, investment, real exchange rate and unemployment rates. The results show, that both consumption and investment, respond positively and permanently to the external price shocks and are influenced positively each other: investment has a positive effect on private consumption and total consumption impacts on investment positively. A real exchange rate depreciated would have a negative effect on private consumption and investment, in the short term.
    Keywords: C3 ; F41 ; ddc:330 ; terms of trade ; consumption ; investment ; SVEC models ; Argentina
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 6
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    A Coruña: Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: The aim of this paper is to identify the different shocks that could affect the current account in the argentine case, such as the terms of trade (the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect- HLM), supply shocks (productivity), demand shocks (real exchange rate and public consumption /current GDP) and the shocks on the production side of the economy. SVAR models with long-term restrictions and quar terly data covering the period 1994-2018 are used. The results of the impulse-response functions suggest the existence of the HLM effect for this country. Shocks in the terms of trade would initially affect to the current account positively, as the improvements in t he productivity and in the public saving (lower consumption).
    Keywords: C3 ; E62 ; F32 ; F41 ; ddc:330 ; current account ; terms of trade ; Harb erger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect ; productivity ; public consumption ; SVAR models
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 7
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    A Coruña: Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: This paper analyzes the impact of external price shocks on fiscal policy in Argentina during the last two decades. The paper evaluates, through VAR models with long-term restrictions, the effects of the terms of trade, and the output gap, in revenues, expenditures and the primary fiscal deficit, for the period 1993-2015. The estimation results show that the fiscal policy would have been pro cyclical, since the expenditures and the primary fiscal deficit of the national government increased during periods of boom in commodity prices. The terms of trade and inflation rates would be more important, than shocks in the output gap, to explain the volatility of fiscal ratios, in the long run.
    Keywords: C32 ; E62 ; Q33 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; terms of trade ; fiscal policy ; SVAR models
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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