ALBERT

Description: Despite promising experimental findings, few studies have addressed the potential long-term health benefits of frequent contact with different kinds of urban nature. We examine the cross-sectional relations between two kinds of urban nature (neighborhood vegetation visible from the home, use of public green spaces) and health outcomes (life satisfaction, perceived general health, 2-months hair cortisol levels) in a sample population from Berlin ( N = 32) using a mixed-method approach. Participants whose homes had views of high amounts of diverse kinds of vegetation had significantly lower cortisol levels. Moreover, participants who regularly used a vegetated trail along a canal had significantly lower cortisol levels and reported significantly higher life satisfaction than less frequent users. In addition, vegetated routes or paths played an important role in the restorative activities and daily commutes of participants. We discuss directions for future research and recommend more consideration of greenways in urban development.

Description: Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

Description: Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions – and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy-decisions.

Description: The abundant evapotranspiration provided by the Amazon forests is an important component of the hydrological cycle, both regionally and globally. Since the last century, deforestation and expanding agricultural activities have been changing the ecosystem and its provision of moisture to the atmosphere. However, it remains uncertain how the ongoing land use change will influence rainfall, runoff, and water availability as findings from previous studies differ. Using moisture tracking experiments based on observational data, we provide a spatially detailed analysis recognizing potential teleconnection between source and sink regions of atmospheric moisture. We apply land use scenarios in upwind moisture sources and quantify the corresponding rainfall and runoff changes in downwind moisture sinks. We find spatially varying responses of water regimes to land use changes, which may explain the diverse results from previous studies. Parts of the Peruvian Amazon and western Bolivia are identified as the sink areas most sensitive to land use change in the Amazon and we highlight the current water stress by Amazonian land use change on these areas in terms of the water availability. Furthermore, we also identify the influential source areas where land use change may considerably reduce a given target sink's water reception (from our example of the Ucayali River basin outlet, rainfall by 5–12 % and runoff by 19–50 % according to scenarios). Sensitive sinks and influential sources are therefore suggested as hotspots for achieving sustainable land–water management.

Description: Mega-droughts can cause disruption to the affected society sparking a transition. We explore the causes and effects of the 2015−2016 mega-drought in Colombia. Using the multi-level perspective as a framework, we found that the mega-drought sparked an energy transition in Colombia whose dynamics were impacted both by the institutionalization of niches as well as the ability to predict the next drought. We were able to trace, using the current understanding of anthropogenic forces, the cause of the mega-drought to socio-technical landscape development influenced by human-induced warming and land use change. We found that the regimes in Bolivia and Brazil were able to influence the landscape through deforestation, and hence contribute to the intensity of a mega-drought in Colombia. The knowledge that a regime can cause disruption in regimes in other geographies and sectors has implications for transition research as well as decision-making for coping with droughts and other disasters.

Description: Vegetation has gained importance in respective debates about climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities. Although recently developed remote sensing techniques provide necessary city-wide information, a sufficient and consistent city-wide information of relevant urban ecosystem services, such as carbon emissions offset, does not exist. This study uses city-wide, high-resolution, and remotely sensed data to derive individual tree species information and to estimate the above-ground carbon storage of urban forests in Berlin, Germany. The variance of tree biomass was estimated using allometric equations that contained different levels of detail regarding the tree species found in this study of 700 km2, which had a tree canopy of 213 km2. The average tree density was 65 trees/ha per unit of tree cover and a range from 10 to 40 trees/ha for densely urban land cover. City-wide estimates of the above-ground carbon storage ranged between 6.34 and 7.69 tC/ha per unit of land cover, depending on the level of tree species information used. Equations that did not use individually localized tree species information undervalued the total amount of urban forest carbon storage by up to 15 %. Equations using a generalized estimate of dominant tree species information provided rather precise city-wide carbon estimates. Concerning differences within a densely built area per unit of land cover approaches using individually localized tree species information prevented underestimation of mid-range carbon density areas (10–20 tC/ha), which were actually up to 8.4 % higher, and prevented overestimation of very low carbon density areas (0–5 tC/ha), which were actually up to 11.4 % lower. Park-like areas showed 10 to 30 tC/ha, whereas land cover of very high carbon density (40–80 tC/ha) mostly consisted of mixed peri-urban forest stands. Thus, this approach, which uses widely accessible and remotely sensed data, can help to improve the consistency of forest carbon estimates in cities.