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  • 1
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: In this paper we set up a baseline, but nevertheless advanced and complete model representing detailed goods market dynamics, heterogeneous labor markets, dual and cross-dual wage-price adjustment processes, as well as counter-cyclical government policies. The cyclical movements of output generate, through Okun's law, employment variations in the heterogeneous labor market. The core of the resulting Keynesian macrodynamics is however given by credit-financed investment behavior and loan-rate setting by credit suppliers. The framework is constructed in such way that simplified, lower dimensional versions of the model can be obtained by setting parameters describing specific feedback effects from one sector to another equal to zero. Starting from such low dimensional sub-dynamics, we show through a ``cascade of stable matrices'' approach that the local stability of the full 7D model is given if the feedback chains are sufficiently tranquil in their transmission mechanisms. However, local stability is the point of departure for the numerical investigation of local explosiveness and the forces that can bound such a behavior.
    Keywords: E12 ; E24 ; E31 ; E52 ; ddc:330 ; Macroeconomic (In-)Stability ; Segmented Labor Markets ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules ; Arbeitsmarktsegmentation ; Wirtschaftliche Instabilität ; Makroökonomik ; Konjunktur ; Geldpolitik ; Okunsches Gesetz
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: This paper addresses the issues of identification and dating of the Euro-zone business cycle by using the Markov-switching approach innovated by Hamilton in his analysis of the US business cycle. Regime shifts in the stochastic process of economic growth in the Euro-zone are identified by fitting Markov-switching models to aggregated and single-country Euro-zone real GDP growth data of the last two decades. The models are found to be statistically congruent and economically meaningful. Based of the smoothed regime probabilities from the Markov-switching models the Euro-zone business cycle is dated and recessions from 1980Q1 to 1981Q1 and 1992Q3 to 1993Q2 are revealed. A Markov-switching vector autoregression of real GDP growth rates in eight EMU member states shows that while the business cycles in the Euro-zone have not been perfectly synchronized over the last two decades, the overall evidence for the presence of a common Euro-zone cycle is strong.
    Description: Zur Identifikation und Datierung des Konjunkturzyklus in der Eurozone wird der von Hamilton zur Analyse des US-Konjunkturzyklus vorgeschlagene Markov-Regimewechselansatz auf vierteljährliche aggregierte und länderspezifische Zeitreihen des realen Bruttoinlandsproduktwachstums der zwei letzten Jahrzehnte angewandt. Mit den statistisch kongruenten und ökonomisch sinnvollen Modellen werden Regimewechsel im stochastischen Wachstumsprozess der Wirtschaft in der Eurozone identifiziert. Basierend auf den implizierten geglätteten Regimewahrscheinlichkeiten kann eine Datierung des Konjunkturzyklus in der Eurozone vorgenommen werden: Konjunkturzyklen in der Eurozone nicht perfekt ist, können mit der Ausnahme von Finnland für jedes Land simultane Regimewechsel in der mittleren Wachstumsrate identifiziert werden.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Konjunktur ; Schock ; Konjunkturzusammenhang ; Markovscher Prozess ; VAR-Modell ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: Introducing the approach by Masanao Aoki (1981) to time series econometrics, we show that the dynamics of symmetric linear possibly cointegrated two-country VAR models can be separated into two autonomous subsystems: the country averages and country differences, where the latter includes the exchange rate. The symmetric two-country cointegrated VAR model is synchronized, ie the two countries are driven by the same common trends, if and only if the country-differences subsystem is stable. It is shown that separability carries over even under mild asymmetries such as difference in the size of the countries' economies. The possibilities of a recursive structural VECM representation under symmetry is evaluated. The derived conditions for symmetry and separability are easily testable and applied to nine-dimensional quarterly cointegrated VAR models for five different country pairs in the post-Bretton-Woods era. We find evidence for the symmetry of the cointegration space, which is of practical importance as it allows for the identification of the cointegration vectors in much smaller systems, and for the exchange rate equation in general.
    Keywords: C32 ; C51 ; F41 ; ddc:330 ; Multi-country modelling ; Cointegration ; Common trends ; Structural VAR ; Synchronization ; Exchange rate ; International Economics
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: We study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the US and UK. In contrast to the empirical literature on the 'delayed overshooting puzzle', which consistently treats the domestic and foreign countries unequally in themodelling process, we consider the full model feedback, allowing for a thorough analysis of the system dynamics. The consequential inevitable problem of model dimensionality is tackled in this paper by invoking the approach by Aoki (1981) commonly used in economic theory. Assuming country symmetry in the long-run allows to decouple the two-country macro dynamics of country averages and country differences such that the cointegration analysis can be applied to much smaller systems. Secondly the econometric modelling is general-to-specific, a graph-theoretic approach for the contemporaneous effects combined with an automatic general-to-specific model selection. The resulting parsimonious structural vector equilibrium correction model ensures highly significant impulse responses, revealing a delayed overshooting of the exchange rate in the case of a Bank of England monetary shock but suggests an instantaneous response to a Fed shock. Altogether the response is more pronounced in the former case.
    Keywords: C22 ; C32 ; C50 ; ddc:330 ; Two-country model ; Cointegration ; Structural VAR ; Gets Model Selection ; Monetary Policy ; Exchange Rates
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: The determination of the $/£ exchange rate is studied in a small symmetric macroeconometric model including UK-US differentials in inflation, output gap, short and long-term interest rates for the four decades since the breakdown of Bretton Woods. The key question addressed is the possible presence of a ‘delayed overshooting puzzle’ in the dynamic reaction of the exchange rate to monetary policy shocks. In contrast to the existing literature, we follow a data-driven modelling approach combining (i) a VAR based cointegration analysis with (ii) a graph-theoretic search for instantaneous causal relations and (iii) an automatic general-to-specific approach for the selection of a congruent parsimonious structural vector equilibrium correction model. We find that the long-run properties of the system are characterized by four cointegration relations and one stochastic trend, which is identified as the long-term interest rate differential and that appears to be driven by long-term inflation expectations as in the Fisher hypothesis. It cointegrates with the inflation differential to a stationary ‘real’ long-term rate differential and also drives the exchange rate. The short-run dynamics are characterized by a direct link from the short-term to the long-term interest rate differential. Jumps in the exchange rate after short-term interest rate variations are only significant at 10%. Overall, we find strong evidence for delayed overshooting and violations of UIP in response to monetary policy shocks.
    Keywords: C22 ; C32 ; C50 ; ddc:330 ; Exchange Rates ; Monetary Policy ; Cointegration ; Structural VAR ; Model Selection
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2016-01-29
    Description: Joint modelling of fiscal and monetary policies should elucidate on their interaction. We construct an eight-dimensional parsimonious structural vector equilibrium correction model (PSVECM) of the US macro economy over the last five decades. The fiscal deficit is found to be one of the five cointegration vectors, constraining fiscal policy in the long run. In contrast, the share of the government sector is found not to be mean reverting. To overcome the common problem of ad-hoc assumptions regarding the direction of instantaneous causality, we use graph-theoretical methods to identify the causal structure of the model from the data. Model reduction procedures allow to control for the course-of-dimensionality inhibiting such high-dimensional vector autoregressive systems. Impulse-response analysis of the parsimonious system facilitated the precise measurement of the dynamic Keynesian fiscal multiplier, where we distinguish between deficit-spending and balanced-budget government spending shocks (as in the so-called Haavelmo, 1945, theorem). Our estimates of the long-run multiplier are 1.62 in case of the bond-financed and 1.77 in case of the tax-financed spending shock, with both being significant greater than one at a 95\% confidence level. Monetary policy is neutral is the long-run but have permanent effects on the level of output. Increasing the federal funds rate by a percentage point is followed by falling tax revenues while government spending is largely unchanged, thus inflating the fiscal deficit in the short- and medium run.
    Keywords: C32 ; E63 ; H62 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2013-05-22
    Description: In this paper we introduce a cointegrated VAR modelling approach for two-country macro dynamics. In order to tackle the curse of dimensionality resulting from the number of variables in multi-country models, we investigate the applicability of the approach by Aoki (1981) frequently used in economic theory. Aoki showed that for a system of linear differential equations, the assumption of country symmetry allows to decouple the dynamics of country averages and country differences into two autonomous subsystems. While this approach can not be applied straightforwardly to economic time series, we generalize Aoki s approach and demonstrate how it can be utilized for the determination of the long-run properties of the system. Symmetry is rejected for the short-run, thus for the given cointegration vectors the final modelling stage is based on the full two-country system. The econometric modelling approach is then enhanced by a general-to-specific model selection procedure, where the VAR based cointegration analysis is combined with a graph-theoretic search for instantaneous causal relations and an automatic general-to-specific reduction of the vector equilibrium correction model. As an application we build up a macro-econometric two-country model for the UK and the US. The empirical study focusses on the effects of monetary policy on the $/ exchange rate. We find interest rate shocks in the UK cause much stronger exchange rate effects than an unanticipated interest rate change by the Fed.
    Keywords: C22 ; C32 ; C50 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: This note aims to identify the stable long-run relationships as well as unstable driving forces of the world economy using an aggregated approach involving the four largest currency blocks. The small global macromodel encompasses aggregated quarterly US, UK, Japanese and Euro Area data for the post-Bretton-Woods era. Three stable long-run relationships are found: output growth, the global term spread and an inflation climate measure. The common stochastic trend of the global economy is found to be dominated by real short-term interest rate shocks, reflecting the strong increase of the global real rates during the Volcker disinflation period as a dominating event of the last 40 years of macro history.
    Keywords: C32 ; C50 ; C82 ; ddc:330 ; Cointegration ; Real interest rates ; Volcker disinflation ; Multi-country model ; Divisia index
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Berlin: Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
    Publication Date: 2018-11-06
    Description: The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets. Different measures of the possible gains of model selection are considered: (i) the chances of finding the correct model, that is, a model which contains all necessary right-hand side variables and is as parsimonious as possible, (ii) the accuracy of the implied impulse-responses and (iii) the forecast performance of the models obtained with different specification algorithms. In the Monte Carlo experiments, the procedures recover the DGP specification from a large VAR with anticipated size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself when evaluated at the empirical size. We find that subset strategies and PcGets are close competitors in many respects, with the forecast comparison indicating a clear advantage of the PcGets algorithm.
    Keywords: C32 ; C51 ; ddc:330 ; vector autoregression ; model selection ; subset model ; lag order determination
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    ISSN: 0029-554X
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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