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  • 1
    Call number: AWI A3-96-0466
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 648 S.
    Edition: Reprinted from Climatic Change, Volume 31, Nos. 2-4, 1995
    ISBN: 0792338561
    Branch Library: AWI Library
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The nature of climate variability is such that decadal fluctuations in average temperature (up to 1 °C annually or 2 °C seasonally) and precipitation (approximately 10% annually), have occurred in most areas of the United States during the modern climate record (the last 60 years). The impact of these fluctuations on runoff was investigated, using data from 82 streams across the United States that had minimal human interference in natural flows. The effects of recent temperature fluctuations on streamflow are minimal, but the impact of relatively small fluctuations in precipitation (about 10%) are often amplified by a factor of two or more, depending on basin and climate characteristics. This result is particularly significant with respect to predicted changes in temperature due to the greenhouse effect. It appears that without reliable predictions of precipitation changes across drainage basins, little confidence can be placed in hypothesized effects of the warming on annual runoff.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 31 (1995), S. V 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 42 (1999), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 42 (1999), S. 309-325 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Trends and multi-decadal variations of weather and climate extremes have only recently received attention from the climate community. Interest has stemmed from exponentially increasing economic losses related to climate and weather extremes, and apparent increases in deaths attributed to these events, suggesting that key decision makers need a better understanding of the potential uses of climate information. The need for data on climate extremes in disaster mitigation activities such as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction also has provided another motivation for focus in this area. The losses cited above raise questions as to whether extreme weather events are actually increasing in frequency, whether society as a whole is becoming more vulnerable to extreme weather events, whether public perception has been unduly influenced by enhanced media attention, or some combination. Given these questions, of particular interest here is the extent to which we can document changes in climate and weather extremes. Attribution of ongoing trends to specific climate forcings, such as anthropogenic effects or other factors related to natural climate variability are still equivocal. For some areas and variables increases in the frequency of extreme events are apparent, while in other areas there are suggestions of declines in these events. A review of this information suggests that further understanding of the cause(s) of the apparent changes in climate and weather extremes is strongly dependent upon progress in our ability to monitor and detect these multi-decadal trends. Based on these analyses we show that this will likely require increased attention in the following areas: 1) The development of more effective international data exchange for high resolution historical climate and weather records, 2) Increased emphasis on rescuing data with appropriate resolution from deteriorating manuscripts and other non-electronic media, 3) A greater emphasis on removing inhomogeneities in the instrumental record and ongoing weather monitoring programs (that provide much of our information about changes and variations of weather and climate extremes), 4) More effective use of space-based measurements and reanalysis products derived from models, 5) More robust monitoring of local extreme weather events such as tornadoes, hail, lightning, and wind, and 6) More effective means to integrate and communicate information about what we know and do not know about changes in climate extremes. Progress in each of these areas is reviewed in context with outstanding remaining challenges, and the benefits that can be expected if we meet these requirements.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A simple statistical model of daily precipitation based on the gamma distribution is applied to summer (JJA in Northern Hemisphere, DJF in Southern Hemisphere) data from eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Norway, and Poland. These constitute more than 40% of the global land mass, and more than 80% of the extratropical land area. It is shown that the shape parameter of this distribution remains relatively stable, while the scale parameter is most variable spatially and temporally. This implies that the changes in mean monthly precipitation totals tend to have the most influence on the heavy precipitation rates in these countries. Observations show that in each country under consideration (except China), mean summer precipitation has increased by at least 5% in the past century. In the USA, Norway, and Australia the frequency of summer precipitation events has also increased, but there is little evidence of such increases in any of the countries considered during the past fifty years. A scenario is considered, whereby mean summer precipitation increases by 5% with no change in the number of days with precipitation or the shape parameter. When applied in the statistical model, the probability of daily precipitation exceeding 25.4 mm (1 inch) in northern countries (Canada, Norway, Russia, and Poland) or 50.8 mm (2 inches) in mid-latitude countries (the USA, Mexico, China, and Australia) increases by about 20% (nearly four times the increase in mean). The contribution of heavy rains (above these thresholds) to the total 5% increase of precipitation is disproportionally high (up to 50%), while heavy rain usually constitutes a significantly smaller fraction of the precipitation events and totals in extratropical regions (but up to 40% in the tropics, e.g., in southern Mexico). Scenarios with moderate changes in the number of days with precipitation coupled with changes in the scale parameter were also investigated and found to produce smaller increases in heavy rainfall but still support the above conclusions. These scenarios give changes in heavy rainfall which are comparable to those observed and are consistent with the greenhouse-gas-induced increases in heavy precipitation simulated by some climate models for the next century. In regions with adequate data coverage such as the eastern two-thirds of contiguous United States, Norway, eastern Australia, and the European part of the former USSR, the statistical model helps to explain the disproportionate high changes in heavy precipitation which have been observed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Even after extensive re-working of past data, in many instances we are incapable of resolving important aspects concerning climate change and variability. Virtually every monitoring system and data set requires better data quality, continuity, and homogeneity if we expect to conclusively answer questions of interest to both scientists and policy-makers. This is a result of the fact that long-term meteorological data, (both satellite and conventional) both now and in the past, are and have been collected primarily for weather prediction, and only in some cases, to describe the current climate. Long-term climate monitoring, capable of resolving decade-to-century scale changes in climate, requires different strategies of operation. Furthermore, the continued degradation of conventional surface-based observing systems in many countries (both developed and developing) is an ominous sign with respect to sustaining present capabilities into the future. Satellite-based observing platforms alone will not, and cannot, provide all the necessary measurements. Moreover, it is clear that for satellite measurements to be useful in long-term climate monitoring much wiser implementation and monitoring practices must be undertaken to avoid problems of data inhomogeneity that currently plague space-based measurements. Continued investment in data analyses to minimize time-varying biases and other data quality problems from historical data are essential if we are to adequately understand climate change, but they will never replace foresight with respect to ongoing and planned observing systems required for climate monitoring. Fortunately, serious planning for a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is now underway that provides an opportunity to rectify the current crisis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The issue of whether the secular climate (twentieth century) is stationary or changing to some new semi-permanent state is clouded by the presence of so-called ‘climate fluctuations’. The twentieth century climate record of the United States reveals a substantial number of decadal fluctuations which occur in all seasons for both temperature and precipitation. Recent examples of such behavior include changes in winter and summer temperature variability and increases in transition season precipitation. Statistical evidence suggests that a substantial portion of these fluctuations, even those which are remarkably unusual, are merely manifestations of a stochastic process which possesses weak year-to-year persistence as viewed from an a posteriori perspective. The implications of this result are particularly important with respect to the formulation of physical causes of the fluctuations. The results emphasize the desirability of well-founded clearly-stated a priori theories of climate change as well as the limited usefulness of widely used climate normals.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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