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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: This paper reviews developments in fiscal rules in the European Union (EU) from the entering into force of the Treaty on European Union (the 'Maastricht Treaty'), which laid the foundations for the euro, until today. It seems safe to say that fiscal positions in the EU and the euro area are now more favourable than they would have been in the absence of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). However, the aggregate picture masks significant cross-country heterogeneity, with less progress where it would be needed most. Furthermore, the design of the rules has not always followed economic logic and has often been the product of political constraints, giving rise to some flaws in the framework from the outset. Repeated attempts to adjust the fiscal framework to a multitude of circumstances over the past 25 years have made it overly complex and incoherent. The paper concludes that, in its current shape, the SGP is an insufficient disciplining device in economic good times, with the consequence that there are no fiscal buffers, particularly in high-debt countries, to support growth in economic troughs. This, together with the absence of a central fiscal stabilisation instrument, puts the burden of stabilisation mostly on the single monetary policy. The paper also reviews reform options on how to render the fiscal framework more effective in bringing about sounder public finances and avoiding the procyclicality observed over the past two decades.
    Keywords: H11 ; H50 ; H6 ; ddc:330 ; Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) ; fiscal rules ; Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 2
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    Luxembourg: European Investment Bank (EIB)
    Publication Date: 2016-08-15
    Description: This paper investigates whether there is a lack of public capital in European Union countries. The analysis builds on a new database providing internationally comparable capital stock estimates for 22 OECD countries, among these 14 EU countries, for the period 1960-2001. A simple model of endogenous growth is used in order to highlight the inherently nonlinear relationship between public capital and economic growth and to derive a measure of the growth-maximising public capital stock. Against this background, the empirical analysis provides estimates of the growth-maximising level of public capital for EU countries. The empirical results suggest that there currently is no lack of public capital in most 'old' EU countries.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Öffentliche Investition ; Infrastrukturinvestition ; Produktivität ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-29
    Description: Economic activity in the euro area is recovering. In the second half of 2003, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of roughly 1½ percent. In contrast with other large industrialized countries, economy-wide capacity utilization has not yet increased. Private consumption has remained the major weak point. However, private investment has increased for the first time since 2½ years and exports have risen rapidly, stimulated by the strong upswing in the rest of the world. A number of leading indicators suggest that the recovery in Euroland has gained some momentum since the turn of the year. Despite an expansionary monetary policy and the dynamic world economy, real GDP in the euro area will rise only moderately in comparison with earlier upswings. This is due to two factors. First, potential output growth in the euro area has apparently decelerated. Second, fiscal policy especially in the large euro-area economies is not sustainable. As governments do not have a credible consolidation strategy, the tax burden is likely to increase in the coming years. Against this background private households? income prospects are subdued and, as a consequence, private consumption will remain comparatively weak. The appreciation of the euro has had a considerable effect on economic activity, but it will not stop recovery. The results of our macroeconometric model imply also that the effects will be small in 2005 if, as we assume, the euro/ dollar exchange rate remains unchanged. Some observers urge the ECB to react to the strength of the euro by cutting interest rates. Whether the ECB should do so depends solely on the way in which the appreciation of the euro impacts the targets embedded in its monetary policy strategy. The main issue is whether the appreciation of the euro will push the inflation rate considerably below the target value. Past experience suggests that it would be unwise to assume it will have a strong dampening effect on consumer prices. Since the beginning of monetary union inflation forecasts have usually been too optimistic. All in all, the ECB is well advised not to cut interest rates in response to recent exchange rate developments. Interest rates in the euro area are already unusually low and stimulate economic activity. The Stability and Growth Pact requires the governments in euro-area countries to achieve a balanced budget or a budget surplus in the medium run. The main problem at present is not that budget deficit to GDP ratios are higher than 3 percent in some countries, but that structural deficits are also very high. Seven years after the adoption of the Pact the large countries still have made no progress on the way to a balanced budget. In Germany and France the structural deficits are even higher than before the monetary union. The recent Stability Programs of these countries suggest that the balanced- budget target has been given up altogether. This is eroding the credibility of fiscal policy and constitutes a heavy blow to economic stability in the euro area. Unsound fiscal policy negatively affects expectations in the private sector and is likely to result in a further deceleration of potential output growth.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Konjunktur ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Konjunkturprognose ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Heidelberg: Springer | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Konjunktur ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 5
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    Heidelberg: Springer | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Konjunktur ; Wirtschaftslage ; Industriestaaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 6
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    Heidelberg: Springer | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Weltkonjunktur ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 7
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    Heidelberg: Springer | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Weltkonjunktur ; Konjunktur ; Welt ; Industriestaaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 8
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: In the spring 2001, the world economy is in a delicate situation. The vigorous growth momentum that prevailed in the recovery in 1999 and into 2000 is clearly gone. In the second half of 2000, global growth decelerated rapidly. In contrast to the last downturn of the world economy in 1997/98, the deceleration originated in the industrial countries, where growth rates were more or less cut in half compared to the first half of the year and the OECD leading indicator declined rapidly (Figure 1.1). Major factors behind the slowdown were lagged effects of monetary tightening and the pronounced and sustained rise in oil prices. It has to be noted, however, that the loss of momentum was substantially larger than expected by most forecasters, including the AIECE institutes in fall of last year, although oil prices behaved largely as expected. The deceleration of activity was particularly pronounced in the IT sector, and the substantial weakening of demand for electronics equipment and IT consumer goods went in tandem with a dramatic decline in the price of tech stocks on a global scale. Indications that the global economy is at the brink of recession are, however, not conclusive. In most countries, business climate and consumer confidence indicators are still at relatively high levels despite the fact that they have fallen over recent months. This is true even in the United States, where the deterioration of indicators has been most pronounced, at least as consumer confidence is concerned
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Konjunktur ; Konjunkturprognose ; EU-Staaten ; Europa
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Heidelberg: Springer | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Weltkonjunktur ; Konjunktur ; Welt ; Industriestaaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 10
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    Heidelberg: Springer | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Konjunktur ; Konjunkturprognose ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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