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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annales geophysicae 15 (1997), S. 1489-1497 
    ISSN: 0992-7689
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Global wanning resulting from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the local climate changes that follow affect local hydrospheric and biospheric environments. These include lakes that serve surrounding populations as a fresh water resource or provide regional navigation. Although there may well be steady water-quality alterations in the lakes with time, many of these are very much climate-change dependent. During cool and wet periods, there may be water-level rises that may cause economic losses to agriculture and human activities along the lake shores. Such rises become nuisances especially in the case of shoreline settlements and low-lying agricultural land. Lake Van, in eastern Turkey currently faces such problems due to water-level rises. The lake is unique for at least two reasons. First, it is a closed basin with no natural or artificial outlet and second, its waters contain high concentrations of soda which prevent the use of its water as a drinking or agricultural water source. Consequently, the water level fluctuations are entirely dependent on the natural variability of the hydrological cycle and any climatic change affects the drainage basin. In the past, the lake-level fluctuations appear to have been rather systematic and unrepresentable by mathematical equations. Herein, monthly polygonal climate diagrams are constructed to show the relation between lake level and some meteorological variables, as indications of significant and possible climatic changes. This procedure is applied to Lake Van, eastern Turkey, and relevant interpretations are presented.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annales geophysicae 17 (1999), S. 273-279 
    ISSN: 0992-7689
    Keywords: Hydrology (hydrologic budget; stochastic processes) - Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (ocean-atmosphere interactions)
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Journal of Computational Physics 102 (1992), S. 348-359 
    ISSN: 0021-9991
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Computer Science , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 65 (2000), S. 99-110 
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary  Planning, design, construction and operation of lakeshore structures require information about the future likely extremes of the lake levels at a given risk percentage. Alternative future likely synthetic sequences can be numerically generated provided that the underlying generating mechanism of the lake level fluctuation phenomenon is identified. Simple linear and periodic nonlinear models are used for modeling the deterministic part in the lake level records. Linear trend is eliminated from the original lake level historic data by regression line technique. The nonlinear part needs two stages for its identification. First Fourier series is applied to model interannual periodicities in the lake level fluctuation series and then monthly standardization procedure is applied for seasonal periodic nonlinear component modeling. A second order Markov model is found suitable for the remaining stochastic parts. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van monthly level data in eastern Turkey. Suitable models are identified and their parameters are estimated for trend, periodic and stochastic parts. Likely, synthetic lake levels are generated by the stochastic model and hence lake level extreme values are depicted for the next 2, 6, 12, 24, 60 and 120 months with risk calculations. Such risk calculations take into account the stochastic characteristics of the lake level fluctuations only. The deterministic parts as linear trends and periodicities are added to the stochastic extreme events for the actual simulation of the lake levels. The model presented in this paper is not for time prediction of future lake levels but rather for the simulation of possible equally likely extreme lake level value occurrences over any desired future period.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 61 (1998), S. 121-126 
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary Energy consumption, agricultural activities and comfort in building design are all related to temporal temperature variations. Truncation of the temperature series at a constant base temperature level leads to surpluses and deficits as deviations. Surpluses are instances for cooling and deficits for heating. In meteorology and heat engineering these are referred to as cooling and heating degree-days, respectively. Since the temperature records are random in character their future predictions are necessary through statistical and probabilistic methods. In this paper, the degree-days are assumed to have a normal probability distribution function and therefore, their averages and standard deviations are considered sufficient for modeling cooling and heating degree-day amounts. Theoretical derivations are presented for degree-day risk calculations in their general forms and a simple implementation is given for two cities in Turkey.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 64 (1999), S. 263-269 
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary  Degree-days as a measure of accumulated temperature deviations from a base temperature have many practical applications in various human related activities such as home cooling, heating, plant growth in agriculture and power generation in addition to energy requirement. Long temperature records are necessary for their reliable estimations at given stations. In this paper, degree-day measure has been applied to monthly temperature records for systematically changed base temperature values from − 25 °C to + 35 °C with 5 °C increments at 255 meteorology stations in Turkey. The results are represented in the form of spatial degree-day distribution maps, which are then related to various climatic, meteorological and topographic features of Turkey. For instance, free surface water bodies in forms of surrounding seas, lakes and rivers insert retardation in the expansion of heating degree-days over large regions. On the other hand, cold air penetration from polar regions in the northeastern Turkey originating from Siberia appears at moderate base temperature heating degree-days.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2008-07-01
    Print ISSN: 1755-1307
    Electronic ISSN: 1755-1315
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Institute of Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2015-03-12
    Description: A database of lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Turkey was constructed by collecting data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, newspaper archives, European Severe Weather Database, and the internet. The database covers January 1930 to June 2014. In total, 742 lightning incidents causing human fatalities and injuries were found. Within these 742 incidents, there were 895 fatalities, 149 serious injuries, and 535 other injuries. Most of the incidents (89%) occurred during April through September, with a peak in May and June (26 and 28 %) followed by July (14%). Lightning-related fatalities and injuries were most frequent in the afternoon. Most of the incidents (86%) occurred in the rural areas, with only 14% in the urban areas. Approximately, two thirds of the victims with known gender were male. Because of the unrepresentativeness of the historical data, determining an average mortality rate over a long period is not possible. Nevertheless, there were 31 fatalities (0.42 per million) in 2012, 26 fatalities (0.35 per million) in 2013, and 25 fatalities (0.34 per million) in 2014 (as of June). There were 36 injuries (0.49 per million) in each of 2012 and 2013, and 62 injuries (0.84 per million) in 2014 (as of June).
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2015-08-20
    Description: A database of lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Turkey was constructed by collecting data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, newspaper archives, European Severe Weather Database, and the internet. The database covers January 1930 to June 2014. In total, 742 lightning incidents causing human fatalities and injuries were found. Within these 742 incidents, there were 895 fatalities, 149 serious injuries, and 535 other injuries. Most of the incidents (89 %) occurred during April through September, with a peak in May and June (26 and 28 %) followed by July (14 %). Lightning-related fatalities and injuries were most frequent in the afternoon. Most of the incidents (86 %) occurred in rural areas, with only 14 % in the urban areas. Approximately, two thirds of the victims with known gender were male. Because of the unrepresentativeness of the historical data, determining an average mortality rate over a long period is not possible. Nevertheless, there were 31 fatalities (0.42 per million) in 2012, 26 fatalities (0.35 per million) in 2013, and 25 fatalities (0.34 per million) in 2014 (as of June). There were 36 injuries (0.49 per million) in each of 2012 and 2013, and 62 injuries (0.84 per million) in 2014 (as of June).
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 1997-11-30
    Description: Global warming resulting from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the local climate changes that follow affect local hydrospheric and biospheric environments. These include lakes that serve surrounding populations as a fresh water resource or provide regional navigation. Although there may well be steady water-quality alterations in the lakes with time, many of these are very much climate-change dependent. During cool and wet periods, there may be water-level rises that may cause economic losses to agriculture and human activities along the lake shores. Such rises become nuisances especially in the case of shoreline settlements and low-lying agricultural land. Lake Van, in eastern Turkey currently faces such problems due to water-level rises. The lake is unique for at least two reasons. First, it is a closed basin with no natural or artificial outlet and second, its waters contain high concentrations of soda which prevent the use of its water as a drinking or agricultural water source. Consequently, the water level fluctuations are entirely dependent on the natural variability of the hydrological cycle and any climatic change affects the drainage basin. In the past, the lake-level fluctuations appear to have been rather systematic and unrepresentable by mathematical equations. Herein, monthly polygonal climate diagrams are constructed to show the relation between lake level and some meteorological variables, as indications of significant and possible climatic changes. This procedure is applied to Lake Van, eastern Turkey, and relevant interpretations are presented.
    Print ISSN: 0992-7689
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0576
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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