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  • 1
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    In:  Earth planet. Sci. Lett., Luxembourg, Deutsche Geophys. Gesellschaft, vol. 226, no. 3-4, pp. 383-395, pp. 2417, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Publication Date: 2004
    Keywords: Seismicity ; Volcanology ; long ; distance ; triggering ; Earthquake ; Stress ; EPSL
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-11
    Type: http://purl.org/escidoc/metadata/ves/publication-types/article
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  • 3
    ISSN: 0027-5107
    Keywords: (Rat) ; Behaviour ; Cyclophosphamide ; Physical changes ; Progeny
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Biology , Medicine
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1040-452X
    Keywords: Aneuploidy ; Cryoprotectant ; Fertility ; Polyploidy ; Life and Medical Sciences ; Cell & Developmental Biology
    Source: Wiley InterScience Backfile Collection 1832-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: In a previous study, we have shown that the cryopreservation of mouse oocytes caused increases in the rates of degeneration and of digynic polyploid embryos, while the fertility of frozen-thawed oocytes was decreased. In this study, we have attempted to determine the different stages in the complete freezing-thawing process which are deleterious for the oocytes and the subsequent zygotes. IVF assays showed that DMSO decreased the fertility of oocytes, whereas cooling to 0°C had no effect. DMSO, used at 0°C, was less deleterious for oocytes. Thus, the prefreezing manipulations seem to be important for the quality and fertility of oocytes. However, neither DMSO nor cooling increased the incidence of chromosomal abnormalities in embryos obtained from inseminated exposed oocytes. Therefore, the increased frequency of polyploidy observed in embryos after the cryopreservation of mouse oocytes must correspond to disruption occurring during the freezing-thawing process.
    Additional Material: 2 Tab.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-06-11
    Description: A probabilistic hazard analysis of tsunami generated by subaqueous volcanic explosion is applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campania, Italy). An event tree is developed to quantify the tsunami hazard due to the submarine explosions by: i) defining potential size classes of explosion magnitude on the basis of past volcanic activity in the Campi Flegrei caldera and sites in the underwater part of the caldera; ii) simulating the generation and propagation of the consequent tsunami waves able to reach the coasts of the Campania region for all combinations of tsunami-generating vents and sizes; and iii) quantifying the tsunami probability and relative uncertainty, conditional upon the occurrence of an underwater eruption at Campi Flegrei. Tsunami hazard generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions is considered crucial because of its potential high impact on the densely populated coastal areas of the Pozzuoli Bay and Gulf of Naples even if the probability for eruptions in the submarine part of the caldera is certainly low. The tsunami hazard analysis is presented using conditional hazard curves and maps, that is calculating the probability (and relative uncertainties) of exceeding given tsunami intensity thresholds (wave amplitudes at the coast), given the occurrence of a subaqueous eruption. The results indicate that a significant tsunami hazard exists in many areas of the Bay of Naples.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-05-05
    Description: We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-03-04
    Description: Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2013-06-08
    Description: The societal importance and implications of seismic-hazard assessment forces the scientific community to pay increasing attention to the evaluation of uncertainty in order to provide accurate assessments. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) formally accounts for the natural variability of the involved phenomena, from seismic sources to wave propagation. Recently, increased attention has been paid to the consequences of alternative modeling procedures on hazard results. This uncertainty, essentially of epistemic nature, has been shown to have major impacts on PSHA results, leading to extensive applications of techniques like the logic tree. Here, we develop a formal Bayesian inference scheme for PSHA that allows us, on the one hand, to explicitly account for all uncertainties and, on the other hand, to consider a larger set of sources of information, from heterogeneous models to past data. This process decreases the chance of undesirable biases and leads to a controlled increase of the precision of the probabilistic assessment. In addition, the proposed Bayesian scheme allows (1) the assignment of a subjective reliability to single models, without requirement of completeness or homogeneity, and (2) a transparent and uniform evaluation of the strength of each piece of information used on the final results. The applicability of the method is demonstrated through the assessment of seismic hazard in the Emilia–Romagna region of northern Italy. In this application the results of a traditional Cornell–McGuire hazard model based on a logic tree are updated with the historical macroseismic records to provide a unified assessment that accounts for both sources of information.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-02-25
    Description: Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2016-09-11
    Description: In this paper, we present a method for handling uncertainties in the determination of the source parameters of earthquakes from spectral data. We propose a robust framework for estimating earthquake source parameters and relative uncertainties, which are propagated down to the estimation of basic seismic parameters of interest such as the seismic moment, the moment magnitude, the source size and the static stress drop. In practice, we put together a Bayesian approach for model parameter estimation and a weighted statistical mixing of multiple solutions obtained from a network of instruments, providing a useful framework for extracting meaningful data from intrinsically uncertain data sets. The Bayesian approach used to estimate the source spectra parameters is a simple but powerful mechanism for non-linear model fitting, providing also the opportunity to naturally propagate uncertainties and to assess the quality and uniqueness of the solution. Another important added value of such an approach is the possibility of integrating information from the expertise of seismologists. Such data can be encoded in a prior state of information that is then updated with the information provided by seismological data. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated analysing data from the 1909 April 23 earthquake occurred near Benavente (Portugal).
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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