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  • 1
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-17
    Description: We present quasi-experimental evidence on the employment effects of an unprecedented large increase in the early retirement age (ERA). Raising the ERA has the potential to extend contribution periods and to reduce the number of pension beneficiaries at the same time, if employment exits are successfully delayed. However, workers may not be able to work longer or may choose other social support programs as exit routes from employment. We study the effects of the ERA increase on employment and potential program substitution in a regression-discontinuity framework. Germany abolished an important early retirement program for women born after 1951, effectively raising the ERA for women by three years. We analyze the effects of this huge increase on employment, unemployment, disability pensions, and inactivity rates. Our results suggest that the reform increased both employment and unemployment rates of women age 60 and over. However, we do not find evidence for active program substitution from employment into alternative social support programs. Instead employed women remained employed and unemployed women remained unemployed. The results suggest an increase in inequality within the affected cohorts.
    Keywords: J14 ; J18 ; J22 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; retirement age ; early retirement ; regression discontinuity ; pension reform ; unemployment ; labor supply ; disability pension
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-07-18
    Description: We evaluate the labor market and distributional effects of an increase in the early retirement age (ERA) from 60 to 63 for women. We use a regression discontinuity design which exploits the immediate increase in the ERA between women born in 1951 and 1952. The analysis is based on the German micro census which includes about 370,000 households per year. We focus on heterogeneous labor market effects on the individual and on the household level and we study the distributional implications using net household income. In this respect we extend the previous literature which mainly studied employment effects on the individual level. Our results show sizable labor market effects which strongly differ by subgroups. We document larger employment effects for women who cannot rely on other income on the household level, e.g. women with a low income partner. The distributional analysis shows on average no significant effects on female or household income. This result holds as well for heterogeneous groups: Even for the most vulnerable groups, such as single women, women without higher education, or low partner income, we do not find significant reductions in income. One reason for this result is program substitution.
    Keywords: J14 ; J18 ; J22 ; J26 ; H31 ; ddc:330 ; retirement age ; pension reform ; labor supply ; early retirement ; distributional effects ; spillover effects ; household
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-11-27
    Description: We evaluate the labor market and distributional effects of an increase in the early retirement age (ERA) from 60 to 63 for women. We use a regression discontinuity design which exploits the immediate increase in the ERA between women born in 1951 and 1952. The analysis is based on the German micro census which includes about 370,000 households per year. We focus on heterogeneous labor market effects on the individual and on the household level and we study the distributional implications using net household income. In this respect we extend the previous literature which mainly studied employment effects on the individual level. Our results show sizable labor market effects which strongly differ by subgroups. We document larger employment effects for women who cannot rely on other income on the household level, e.g. women with a low income partner. The distributional analysis shows on average no significant effects on female or household income. This result holds as well for heterogeneous groups: Even for the most vulnerable groups, such as single women, women without higher education, or low partner income, we do not find significant reductions in income. One reason for this result is program substitution.
    Keywords: J14 ; J18 ; J22 ; J26 ; H31 ; ddc:330 ; retirement age ; pension reform ; labor supply ; early retirement ; distributional effects ; spillover effects ; household
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: The unemployment rate in East Germany has been almost twice as high as in West Germany since unification. At the same time, employment subject to social security contributions decreased markedly. We analyse how these developments are reflected in the careers of birth cohorts born between 1937 and 1971. German reunification affected these cohorts differently as they were between 53 and 29 years of age when the wall came down and thus in different stages of their careers. To account for this, we estimate cohort effects in employment careers for men and women differentiated by skill group on the basis of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Our projection of future careers, based on the estimated cohort effects, shows a massive decline in cumulated full-time employment over the life-cycle and a dramatic increase of unemployment for younger birth cohorts. Given that the estimation of cohort effects and the projection of future careers are based on a negative labour market development in East Germany since unification, we also analyse an alternative scenario characterized by an improvement of future employment careers of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; sozialversicherungspflichtige Arbeitnehmer ; Sozioökonomisches Panel ; Berufsverlauf - Prognose ; Bildungsniveau ; Beschäftigungsform ; Qualifikationsniveau ; Arbeitsmarktentwicklung ; erwerbstätige Frauen ; erwerbstätige Männer ; Ostdeutschland ; Bundesrepublik Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2011-03-29
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a microsimulation model which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms on birth cohorts. Cohort effects estimated on the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles, in particular in East Germany and for people with little education. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Die Bundesregierung hat mit der Rentenreform 2001 die staatliche Förderung der freiwilligen zusätzlichen kapitalgedeckten Altersvorsorge eingeführt. Dabei werden über die Riester-Rente zertifizierte private Altersvorsorgeprodukte durch Zulagen und Steuerersparnisse gefördert. Dadurch sollen finanzielle Anreize für die Versicherten der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung und für Beamte gesetzt werden, die langfristige Niveauabsenkung der gesetzlichen Rente durch den Aufbau einer privaten Rente auszugleichen. Insbesondere sollen auch Geringverdiener, Frauen, Förderberechtigte in den neuen Ländern und Familien beim Aufbau einer zusätzlichen Altersvorsorge finanziell unterstützt werden. Eine Analyse der Inanspruchnahme der Riester-Rente auf Basis von Daten aus dem Sozio-oekonomischen Panel im Zeitraum von 2004 bis 2007 zeigt, dass diese vor allem in Ostdeutschland stark zugenommen hat und die Riester- Förderung zunehmend von Frauen in Anspruch genommen wird. Am häufigsten verfügen 24- bis 44-Jährige über diese Form der Alterssicherung. Das Ziel insbesondere Geringverdiener beim Aufbau einer zusätzlichen Altersvorsorge finanziell zu unterstützen, scheint nach den Ergebnissen der vorliegenden Studie bisher allerdings nur sehr eingeschränkt erreicht worden zu sein.
    Keywords: D12 ; H24 ; H30 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; Private pension provision ; Riester scheme ; tax incentives ; Private Altersvorsorge ; Steuervergünstigung ; Sparförderung ; Anreiz ; Niedrigeinkommen ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 8
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Die 2001 eingeführte staatliche Förderung der sogenannten Riester-Rente hat zum Ziel, die Anreize zum Aufbau einer kapitalgedeckten privaten Altersvorsorge zu erhöhen. In erster Linie soll die private Vorsorge Versicherten der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung und Beamten helfen, die langfristige Niveauabsenkung der gesetzlichen Renten und Pensionen zu kompensieren. Darüber hinaus zielt die staatliche Förderung insbesondere auf Geringverdiener und Mütter beziehungsweise Familien mit Kindern ab. Nach zehn Jahren haben jedoch weniger als 40 Prozent aller Anspruchsberechtigten einen Riester-Vertrag abgeschlossen. Und eine strukturelle Analyse der Inanspruchnahme der Riester-Rente auf Basis der Daten des sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) für die Jahre 2004 bis 2010 zeigt, dass Geringverdiener, Personen mit niedrigem Bildungsabschluss und Migrationshintergrund seltener "riestern" als der Durchschnitt der Bevölkerung. Bei Frauen ist die Riester-Rente am weitesten verbreitet, und es zeigt sich, dass die Zahl der Kinder die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Abschlusses eines Riester-Vertrags stark positiv beeinflusst. Die Gruppe der kindererziehenden Versicherten erhält signifikante staatliche Zuschüsse.
    Keywords: D12 ; H24 ; H30 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; Private pension provision ; Riester scheme ; tax incentives
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Die gemeinsame Besteuerung von Ehepartnern im Rahmen des Ehegattensplittings ist nach wie vor ein großes Hemmniss der Erwerbsbeteiligung von verheirateten Frauen am Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland. In ihrem aktuellen Finanzkonzept fordert die SPD, das Ehegattensplitting durch eine Individualbesteuerung mit Unterhaltsabzug zu ersetzen, entsprechend den bereits geltenden Regelungen für geschiedene Eheleute. Simulationsrechnungen des DIW Berlin zeigen, dass eine solche Reform nur geringe Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte hätte. Eine reine Individualbesteuerung dagegen würde nicht nur zu erheblichen Steuermehreinnahmen führen, sondern auch die Erwerbsbeteiligung von verheirateten Frauen deutlich erhöhen. Nimmt man das Ziel einer stärkeren Integration verheirateter Frauen in den Arbeitsmarkt ernst, müsste die Politik das derzeitige Ehegattensplitting durch eine reine Individualbesteuerung ersetzen.
    Keywords: H24 ; H31 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; Working incentives ; joint taxation of couples ; female labor supply
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 10
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-16
    Description: In this paper we exploit a cohort-specific pension reform to estimate the causal labour market effects of changes in the financial incentives to retire. In particular, we analyze the effects of the introduction of cohort-specific deductions for early retirement on female retirement, employment and unemployment. For the empirical analysis we use high-quality administrative data from the German pension insurance. We present evidence for sizable labour market effects. In addition to direct effects on women older than 60 we find important anticipation effects before reaching the pension eligibility age. Overall we document that the pension reform leads to a postponement of retirement, an increase in employment and a shifting in unemployment over age rather than a substitution into unemployment.
    Keywords: J14 ; J18 ; J22 ; J26 ; H21 ; ddc:330 ; retirement age ; pension reform ; labour supply ; actuarial deductions ; cohort-specific pension reform ; labour market effects
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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