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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Oslo: Statistics Norway, Research Department
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Oslo: Statistics Norway, Research Department
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Description: This paper investigates the impact of structural adjustment policies on deforestation taking place when the agricultural frontier advances into forest reserves in Nicaragua. A computable general equilibrium model incorporating deforestation by squatters is used for policy simulations. The opportunity cost of migrating to the frontier does not simply depend on wage income opportunity, but also on market prices of basic grain which determine the capacity to consume beyond subsistence food level within a certain real wage. Reducing public expenditures both conserve forests and enhance economic growth, while showing positive distributional effects. On the other hand, a strong conservation trend following a sales tax increase is driven by increasing poverty in rural areas. Noticeably, there are policies which initially intensify deforestation, but turn out to ease the pressure on forests over time. Rapid economic growth does not ensure less pressure on forest reserves.
    Keywords: C68 ; O54 ; Q23 ; R23 ; ddc:330 ; Deforestation ; structural adjustment ; general equilibrium model ; Nicaragua
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Description: High oil prices are favourable for OPEC in the short run, but may undermine its future revenues. We search for the optimal oil price level for the producer group, using a partial equilibrium model for the oil market. The model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively in improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call on OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. According to our results, sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel (2000-$). In fact, an oil price around $40 seems to be profitable for OPEC, even if long-term revenues are not discounted. Sensitivity analyses show that even with many factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the optimal oil price seems to be at least $25. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence.
    Keywords: L13 ; Q31 ; Q41 ; ddc:330 ; Oil market ; oil price ; market power ; equilibrium model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Description: Climate change impacts in the Arctic require that complex relationships between the economy, the environment, and the living conditions of indigenous and local people be taken into account. While traditional approaches to economic valuation may not be sufficient to capture these relationships, the research area of ecological economics suggests broader approaches to environmental uncertainties, taking into account ethical values and conflicts of interest. Increased activity in petroleum exploration, manufacturing, transportation, tourism and other services have the potential to alter the Arctic environment and societies considerably. Application of the precautionary principle is suggested as a way to manage situations with large degrees of environmental uncertainty and potentially irreversible consequences. Precautionary approaches require the development of processes for acknowledgement of uncertainties, facilitation of stakeholder participation, recognition of ethical values, and taking into account the traditional ecological knowledge of indigenous people of the Arctic. Combining traditional and scientific knowledge about nature is an important part of understanding the resilience capacity of ecological and social systems, and of enhancing the potential for sustainable development.
    Keywords: Q54 ; Q57 ; ddc:330 ; Arctic ; Environmental uncertainty ; Ecological Economics ; Precaution
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Oslo: Statistics Norway, Research Department
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Description: The Arctic has a substantial share of global petroleum resources, but at higher costs than in most other petroleum provinces. Arctic states and petroleum companies are carefully considering the potential for future extraction in the Arctic. This paper studies the oil and gas supply from 6 arctic regions during 2010-2050 along with global economic growth and different assumptions regarding petroleum prices and resource endowments. Supply is calculated based on a global model of oil and gas markets. The data on undiscovered resources for the Arctic is based on the estimates by USGS. Sensitivity studies are carried out for two alternative price scenarios and for a 50 per cent reduction of arctic undiscovered resources compared with the USGS 2008 resource estimate. Although a major part of the undiscovered arctic petroleum resources is natural gas, our results show that the relative importance of the Arctic as a world gas supplier will decline, while its importance as a global oil producer may be maintained. We also show that less than full access to undiscovered oil resources will have minor effect on total arctic oil production and a marginal effect on arctic gas extraction. The reason is that Arctic Russia is an important petroleum producer with a sufficiently large stock of already discovered resources to support their petroleum production before 2050.
    Keywords: Q31 ; Q41 ; R10 ; ddc:330 ; Arctic ; oil market ; gas market ; equilibrium model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Description: In this paper, a model of the nitrogen cycle in the soil is incorporated in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Tanzanian economy, thus establishing a two way link between the environment and the economy. For a given level of natural soil productivity, profit maximising farmers choose a production technique and the optimal production volume, which in turn influences the soil productivity the following years through the recycling of nitrogen from the residues of roots and stover and the degree of erosion. The model is used to simulate the effects of typical structural adjustment policies: a reduction in agro-chemicals subsidies, reduced implicit export tax rate, a devaluation of the currency, a cut in governmental expenditure and a reduction of foreign transfers. The result of a joint implementation is a 9 percent higher GDP level compared to the baseline scenario after 10 years. The effect of soil degradation is found to represent a reduction in the GDP level of more than 5 percent for the same time period.
    Keywords: C68 ; Q16 ; Q24 ; ddc:330 ; CGE-model ; soil degradation ; economic growth ; structural adjustment
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Description: China is a dominant energy consumer in a global context and current energy forecasts emphasise that China's future energy consumption also will rely heavily on coal. The coal use is the major source of the greenhouse gas CO2 and particles causing serious health damage. This paper looks into the question if coal washing might work as low cost strategy for both CO2 and particle emission reductions. Coal washing removes dirt and rock from raw coal, resulting in a coal product with higher thermal energy and less air pollutants. Coal cleaning capacity has so far not been developed in line with the market potential. In this paper an emerging market for cleaned coal is studied within a CGE model for China. The macro approach catches the repercussions of coal cleaning through increased energy efficiency, lower coal transportation costs and crowding out effect of investments in coal washing plants. Coal cleaning stimulates economic growth and reduces particle emissions, but total energy use, coal use and CO2 emissions increase through a rebound effect supported by the vast reserve of underemployed labourers. A carbon tax on fossil fuel combustion has a limited effect on total emissions. The reason is a coal leakage to tax exempted processing industries.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Coal ; China ; carbon tax ; CGE
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Description: This paper studies the effect of a CDM tree-planting project on carbon sequestration and urban and rural income distribution, taking economy-wide impacts into account. Carbon sequestration in agricultural soil is considered in addition to the carbon in the tree farm itself. The study points to that project designs that raise the general investment level may add substantially to the project's carbon capture by stimulating the productivity of agriculture, thus binding more carbon in soil. As demand for crops is rising, the mode of agricultural production turns more intensive and improved plant growth leaves more plant residues for uptake as soil organic carbon. As for the income effect, the non-poor benefit more than the poor in economic terms, except when the project is hosted by the rural poorest. Foreign owned projects withdrawing the project surplus may turn out to reduce the income of urban poor and does not enhance agricultural productivity and beyond-project carbon sequestration.
    Keywords: D58 ; O13 ; Q52 ; Q56 ; Q58 ; ddc:330 ; CDM ; afforestation ; poverty reduction ; CGE ; Tanzania
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-02-15
    Description: This paper examines to what extent downscaling of global coal based electricity generation encourages gas demand and affects regional activity in gas production, with emphasis on the arctic regions. In our reference scenario up to 2050 we take into consideration that renewables is set to increase its contribution to global electricity production over time, while coal will contribute less. We find that a policy scenario with further phasing out of coal and phasing in of renewables in line with the 2 degrees scenario for the power sector up to 2050, will lead to reduced arctic gas production compared to the reference scenario, although total worldwide electricity production doubles over the same period. However, even in a situation with less resources and higher costs in the Arctic, future investments in new reserves in the region are still profitable in our policy scenario, as total arctic gas production then is only marginally lower in 2050 than today.
    Keywords: Q31 ; Q41 ; Q58 ; ddc:330 ; Arctic ; Coal market ; Gas market ; Electricity market ; Equilibrium model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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