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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-07-20
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-07-20
    Description: Die politischen Rahmenbedingungen der weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung sind derzeit durch vielfache Unsicherheiten geprägt; dies lastet insbesondere auf der Investitionstätigkeit und bremst die globale Konjunktur. Das DIW Berlin reduziert seine Prognose für das laufende und das kommende Jahr daher leicht auf 4,1 Prozent beziehungsweise 3,9 Prozent. Der globale Aufschwung scheint aber weithin intakt. In den entwickelten Volkswirtschaften stützt vor allem die gute Lage am Arbeitsmarkt den Konsum. Für die USA ist vor dem Hintergrund von finanzpolitischen Impulsen zudem mit höheren Wachstumsraten als zu Jahresbeginn zu rechnen. Für den Euroraum haben sich die Aussichten hingegen eingetrübt. Auch viele Schwellenländer stehen stärker unter Druck - neben hausgemachten Problemen vor allem wegen der Dollarstärke, die mit der gestiegenen Unsicherheit und einer global weniger expansiv ausgerichteten Geldpolitik einhergeht. Im weiteren Verlauf dürften der Anstieg des weltweiten Zinsniveaus, erste Arbeitskräfteengpässe in den entwickelten Volkswirtschaften und eine weitere graduelle Verlangsamung des Wachstums in China die Weltkonjunktur weiter entschleunigen. Risiken für die Fortsetzung des globalen Aufschwungs gehen vor allem von protektionistischen Bestrebungen der USA sowie politischen Unsicherheiten im Euroraum aus.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 3
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-20
    Description: Compared to last year, the German economy is weakening noticeably. Orders from abroad are decreasing and domestic companies are holding back on investments. However, capacity utilization remains high-also because the government will boost the incomes of private households next year. However, above all, incomes are rising noticeably due to the positive situation in the labor market: the unemployment rate will fall to 5.2 percent this year and 4.9 percent next year. All in all, the German economy will grow by 1.9 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2019.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-20
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-07-20
    Description: The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and the next to 4.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. However, global expansion appears to remain intact. In developed economies, primarily the good labor market situation is supporting consumption. In the United States, higher growth than at the beginning of the year is expected due to fiscal stimulus. The outlook for the euro area has deteriorated recently, however. Many emerging countries are also under greater pressure-in addition to domestic issues mainly caused by a tightening of international financial conditions. Over the course of the rest of the year, the rise in global interest rates, the first labor shortages in developed economies, and a further gradual deceleration of growth in China are expected to slow down the global economy more. The main risks for the continuation of the global upswing are primarily the United States' protectionism and political uncertainties in the euro area.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-07-20
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 7
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-20
    Description: Im Vergleich zum vergangenen Jahr schwächt sich die deutsche Konjunktur merklich ab. Die Bestellungen aus dem Ausland sinken und die heimischen Unternehmen halten sich mit Investitionen zurück. Die Kapazitäten bleiben jedoch stark ausgelastet - auch weil im kommenden Jahr die Regierung die Einkommen der privaten Haushalte anschiebt. Aber vor allem steigen die Einkommen wegen der guten Lage am Arbeitsmarkt spürbar: Die Arbeitslosenquote sinkt auf 5,2 Prozent in diesem Jahr und auf 4,9 Prozent im kommenden. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wächst alles in allem in diesem Jahr um 1,9 Prozent und im Jahr 2019 um 1,7 Prozent.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Description: Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in einem moderaten Aufschwung. Zu diesem Ergebnis kommt die Mitte April veröffentlichte Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte demnach in diesem Jahr um 1,6% und im kommenden Jahr um 1,5% zulegen. Getragen wird der Aufschwung vom privaten Konsum, der vom anhaltenden Beschäftigungsaufbau, den spürbaren Steigerungen der Lohn- und Transfereinkommen und den Kaufkraftgewinnen infolge der gesunkenen Energiepreise profitiert.
    Description: The German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.6 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent in 2017. The upturn will be driven by private consumption, which will benefit from continued employment growth, sizeable increases in wage and transfer income, and also purchasing power gains thanks to lower energy prices. Fiscal policy will also be expansively oriented, partly due to rising costs related to refugee immigration. Public budgets will still post significant surpluses in the forecasting period, however. Failing to use this room for manoeuvre to promote growth, as seen in recent years, is not a sustainable path. In view of the continuous slack in the euro area economy, the monetary policy stance is considered to be appropriate. Should it become obvious in the course of this year that production does not return to normal capacity and that the inflation rate does not move towards two per cent, further measures to stimulate growth might become necessary. The scope for further monetary policy measures has been widely exhausted, though. A further economic stabilization could only be achieved through a combination of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. This could severely damage the credibility of monetary policy, however.
    Keywords: E27 ; E32 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Konjunktur ; Frühindikator ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-09-10
    Description: Die an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose teilnehmenden Institute prognostizieren in ihrer Herbstdiagnose, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft in diesem und im kommenden Jahr um jeweils 1,8% expandieren wird. Damit setzt sich zwar der Aufschwung fort, er dürfte aber moderat bleiben. Bremsend wirkt die Abschwächung des Wachstums in den Schwellenländern. Im weiteren Prognosezeitraum wird der Aufschwung vor allem von den privaten Konsumausgaben getragen. Zwar wurden auch die Sachinvestitionen des Staates ausgeweitet. Für moderne Volkswirtschaften sind Investitionen in Köpfe aber wichtiger als Investitionen in Beton. Im Bereich der Bildung gilt es, Wachstumspotenziale zu heben.
    Description: According to the Autumn 2015 Joint Forecast German GDP will grow by 1.8% in this year and in the next year also. Thus the business cycle upswing will continue to be moderate. Lower growth in the emerging markets will show a dampening effect on exports whereas private consumption will gain momentum, given a strong labor market and an increase in real wages. However, new workers are increasingly recruited from the non-active population and among immigrants, leaving unemployment more or less unchanged. In the next year, the huge current inflow of refugees will increasingly influence the number of unemployed. For economic policy the challenge is to integrate refugees into the labour market as soon as possible.
    Keywords: E27 ; E32 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Konjunktur ; Frühindikator ; Flüchtlinge ; Beschäftigungseffekt ; Arbeitskräftepotenzial ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-09-10
    Description: Die Zentralbanken in den Industrieländern betreiben seit längerer Zeit eine sehr lockere Geldpolitik mit niedrigen nominalen Zinsen. Bei gleichzeitig niedriger Inflationsrate sind auch die Realzinsen sehr gering. Von niedrigen Zinsen wird erwartet, dass die Investitionsschwäche überwunden, deflationäre Entwicklungen gestoppt und das Wirtschaftswachstum angekurbelt wird. Offenbar kann aber die Geldpolitik diese Ziele nicht allein erreichen, möglicherweise setzt sie sogar falsche Anreize. Andere regulierende Maßnahmen sind erforderlich, zudem können Investitionsprogramme unterstützend wirken.
    Description: Due to the financial crises from 2008 to 2012, unconventional monetary policy caused an environment of record low interest rates around the world. Maintaining the low interest rate policy might be reasonable for the ECB in the short run in order to fight the fragmentation of the financial market and the risk of deflation in the Eurozone. Some authors argue that permanently low interest rates lead to wrong incentives in the financial market for debtors and creditors alike. They fear potential risks for fiscal policy and financial stability in Germany and recommend macroprudential measures beyond the Basel III framework and a beginning exit of the ECB from its unconventional monetary policy. Others warn against overburdening monetary policy. They find rather that effective financial market regulation and proper fiscal rules and institutions are required to secure financial market stability and the sustainability of public debt and that a premature exit from accommodating monetary policies would do more harm than good. They argue that monetary policy alone will not solve Europe's problems. The differing recommendations are mainly based on differing assessments of the European business cycle.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; Niedrigzinspolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Inflationsrate ; Inflationserwartung ; Wirkungsanalyse ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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