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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-07-14
    Description: In this paper, we extend Henning Bohn’s (2008) fiscal sustainability test by allowing for slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence (CD). In particular, our econometric approach is the first that allows fiscal reaction functions (FRF) to capture unobserved heterogeneous effects from business and fiscal policy cycles. We apply this econometric approach to sub-national public finance data of the German Laender between 1950 and 2015 and find that their fiscal policy only partly meets fiscal sustainability criteria. According to our results, politicians have significantly reacted to increasing debt levels by increasing budget surpluses since 1991. However, time-series evidence for longer periods does not indicate a significant and positive reaction to increasing debt levels in the West German Laender panel.
    Keywords: H62 ; H77 ; H72 ; C23 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal sustainability ; public debt ; panel data ; cross-sectional dependence
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper provides a quantitative review of the empirical literature on the tax impact on corporate debt financing. Synthesizing the evidence from 46 previous studies, we find that this impact is substantial. In particular, the tax rate proxy determines the outcome of primary analyses. Measures like the simulated marginal tax rate (Graham (1996a)) avoid a downward bias in estimates for the debt response to tax. Moreover, debt characteristics, econometric specifications, and the set of control-variables affect tax effects. Accounting for misspecification biases by means of meta-regressions, we predict a marginal tax effect on the debt ratio of 0.3.
    Keywords: G30 ; H32 ; F23 ; ddc:330 ; capital structure ; corporate income tax ; meta-analysis ; Körperschaftsteuer ; Steuerwirkung ; Kapitalstruktur ; Fremdkapital ; Meta-Analyse ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: In the last decades, the majority of OECD countries has experienced a continuous increase in public debt. The European debt crisis has prompted a fundamental re-evaluation of public debt sustainability and the looming threat of sovereign debt default. Due to a multitude of large scale events in its past, Germany is far from being an exception: In fact, Germany's peacetime debt-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio has never been higher. In this paper, we analyse the sustainability of Germany's public finances against the standard theoretical background using a unique database, retrieved from multiple sources covering the period from 1850 to 2010. Multiple currency crises and external events offer anecdotal evidence, contradicting the historical perception of Germany as the poster child of European public finance. Given these corresponding breaks in time series, the empirical analysis is conducted for the subperiods 1872-1913 and 1950-2010. In addition to an anecdotal historical analysis, we conduct formal tests on fiscal sustainability, including tests on stationarity and cointegration and the estimation of Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). While we cannot reject the hypothesis that fiscal policy was sustainable in the period before the First World War, the tests allow for a rejection of the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability for the period from 1950 to 2010. This evidence leads to the conclusion that Germany's public debt is in dire need of consolidation. Albeit a much needed reform, the incompleteness of the German debt brake will have to be addressed in the coming years, in order to ensure that fiscal consolidation actually takes place.
    Keywords: H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; public debt ; sustainability ; time series analysis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-11-14
    Description: The starting point of this project is the question of whether the macroeconomics of the German political establishment does indeed differ, as it often seems to do, from standard textbook macroeconomics: in particular, the former appears to neglect demand management (although it may be quite interventionist in other ways), to reject debt relief and to emphasise structural reform designed to improve competitiveness as the (only) key to economic growth. How far is this true? How much of whatever difference exists is due to a well worked out set of ideas in the form of Ordoliberalism? How does it relate to Germany’s own experiences in different periods? How far is this the result of political preferences and how much do the idiosyncrasies of these German views matter, for the development of the Eurozone and indeed the health of the German economy?
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Macroeconomic Policy ; German political establishment ; Eurozone
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: There is an intensive dispute in political economics about the impact of institutions on income redistribution. While the main focus is on comparison between different forms of representative democracy, the influence of direct democracy on redistribution has attracted much less attention. According to theoretical arguments and previous empirical results, government policies of income redistribution are expected to be more in line with median voter preferences in direct than in representative democracies. In this paper, we find that institutions of direct democracy are associated with lower public spending and revenue, particularly lower welfare spending and broad-based income and property (wealth) tax revenue. Moreover, we estimate a model which explains the determinants of redistribution using panel data provided by the Swiss Federal Tax Office from 1981 to 1997 and a cross section of (representative) individual data from 1992. While our results indicate that less public funds are used to redistribute income and actual redistribution is lower, inequality is not reduced to a lesser extent in direct than in representative democracies for a given initial income distribution. This finding might well indicate the presence of efficiency gains in redistribution policies.
    Keywords: D7 ; D78 ; I30 ; H75 ; H11 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: A common political claim is that decentralized governments undermine policy makers' ability to fight fiscal imbalance. This paper examines how different fiscal institutions influence the likelihood of a successful fiscal adjustment. Using a panel of the Swiss cantons from 1981 to 2001, we first analyze the episodes of tight fiscal policy and their macroeconomic consequences. Then, we empirically investigate the determinants of successful long-lasting deficit reductions. Contrary to the popular claim, we find that fiscal decentralization increases the probability of a successful fiscal consolidation. In addition, the results point to an important role of intergovernmental grants and the circumstances, in particular the size of fiscal imbalance in the years before the consolidation in determining a successful adjustment policy. Furthermore, coalition governments and large parliaments less likely implement successful fiscal stabilizations. Finally, there is some weak evidence that spending cuts are more promising in reaching a long-lasting fiscal adjustment than revenue increases.
    Keywords: E61 ; E63 ; H61 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal adjustment ; consolidation policy ; fiscal decentralization ; fiscal institutions ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Finanzföderalismus ; Erfolgsfaktor ; Schätzung ; Schweiz
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: It is hypothesized that prosecution agencies that are dependent on the executive have less incentives to prosecute crimes committed by government members which, in turn, increases their incentives to commit such crimes. Here, this hypothesis is put to an empirical test focusing on a particular kind of crime, namely corruption. In order to test it, it was necessary to create an indicator measuring de jure as well as de facto independence of the prosecution agencies. The regressions show that de facto independence of prosecution agencies robustly reduces corruption of officials.
    Keywords: H11 ; K40 ; K42 ; ddc:330 ; corruption ; prosecution agencies ; judicial independence and positive constitutional economics ; Justiz ; Gewaltenteilung ; Korruption ; Kriminalpolitik ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-12-07
    Description: Die globale Finanzmarktkrise 2007-2009 hat gezeigt, wie stark ganze Volkswirtschaften von der Stabilität eines reibungslos funktionierenden Finanzsystems abhängen. Problematisch ist beispielsweise die Systemrelevanz einzelner Akteure, da diese im Notfall mit öffentlichen Mitteln gerettet werden müssen. Um die Regulierung der Finanzmärkte zu verbessern, wurden bereits einige Maßnahmen beschlossen. Doch reichen diese aus? Können Finanzmarktkrisen in der Zukunft so tatsächlich verhindert werden? Der Kronberger Kreis bewertet in dieser Studie die wichtigsten Konzepte zur Regulierung der Finanzmärkte und unterbreitet eigene Vorschläge. Eingehend behandelt werden unter anderem die Eigenkapitalanforderungen für Banken nach Basel III, die Bankenabgabe, die Finanztransaktionsteuer, die Besteuerung von Umsatz oder Finanzaktivität und die Ausgestaltung der Bankenaufsicht.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Basler Akkord ; Bankrisiko ; Systemrisiko ; Finanzkrise ; Bankenaufsicht ; Bankenregulierung ; Europa
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-12-07
    Description: In Deutschland sind die privaten Bildungsausgaben anders zusammengesetzt als in vergleichbaren Industrieländern. Der private Finanzierungsanteil an den gesamten Bildungsausgaben ist hierzulande für die vorschulische Bildung deutlich höher als für die Schul-, Betriebs- und Hochschulbildung. Im internationalen Vergleich zeigt sich: Diese Aufteilung ist nicht geeignet, Chancengerechtigkeit herzustellen und bedarf daher einer gründlichen Überarbeitung. Der Kronberger Kreis fordert den Staat auf, sich an der Finanzierung der vorschulischen Bildung stärker zu beteiligen, so dass einkommensschwache Familien keine Kindergartengebühren zahlen müssen. Das letzte Kindergartenjahr vor der Einschulung könnte verpflichtend sein. Im Hochschulbereich plädiert der Kronberger Kreis hingegen für die Wiedereinführung von Studiengebühren. In dieser Studie finden sich darüber hinaus konkrete Vorschläge zur Stärkung des Wettbewerbs zwischen öffentlichen und privaten Schulen sowie zur Ausgestaltung der steuerlichen Förderung von Bildungsinvestitionen.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bildungsfinanzierung ; Bildungspolitik ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-12-07
    Description: Die Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion steht am Scheideweg. Einige Mitgliedstaaten leiden unter Verschuldung und hohen Kapitalmarktzinsen. Der strukturelle Reformbedarf ist enorm. Zu Beginn der Krise noch undenkbar fordern manche eine Fiskalunion mit vergemeinschafteter Staatsverschuldung, während andere die einzige Lösung in einer Aufsplittung oder gar Auflösung der Währungsunion sehen. Das Konzept des Kronberger Kreises für eine erfolgreiche europäische Zukunft besteht indes in einer national verantworteten Stabilitätsunion mit einer einvernehmlichen Festlegung auf unverrückbare fiskalpolitische Regeln. So werden die nationalen Unterschiede in der präferierten Ausgaben- und Einnahmestruktur respektiert. Lehnt ein Staat hingegen eine verantwortliche Stabilitätspolitik ab, so hat er die Mitgliedschaft in der Währungsunion verwirkt. Des Weiteren erläutert der Kronberger Kreis in dieser Studie seine Empfehlungen zur europäischen Geldpolitik, insbesondere seine Warnung vor dem Aufkauf von Staatsanleihen, und hinsichtlich einer rigoroseren Bankenregulierung.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanzpolitik ; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik ; Eurozone ; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus ; Ordnungspolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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