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  • 1
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    Buenos Aires: Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: El presente trabajo posee por objetivo analizar las decisiones de inversión adoptadas por las principales empresas participantes del mercado petrolero argentino en función de las políticas de derechos de exportación y precios internos del petróleo instrumentadas desde el año 2003, y cómo los flujos destinados a inversión pudieron haber afectado los niveles de producción de petróleo en la Argentina. Para ello se estudió la información proveniente de los estados contables correspondientes a treinta empresas participantes de la industria petrolera argentina, que en su conjunto representan más del 80% del tamaño de la industria petrolera local, en especial la referida a flujos de fondos destinados a inversión y variaciones en los activos fijos. Fue posible observar que la regulación de los precios internos mediante la instrumentación de derechos de exportación causó en forma simultánea un deterioro en la rentabilidad de las empresas pertenecientes a la industria petrolera. En forma simultánea, los derechos de exportación instrumentados entre los años 2004 y 2015 generaron una importante brecha de precios respecto de los valores internacionales del petróleo. La persistencia de dicha brecha de precios y de rentabilidad en el tiempo habría incidido en las decisiones de inversión realizadas en el segmento petrolero argentino, observándose una caída en los niveles de inversión y en los activos fijos productivos destinados a dicha actividad. Ello condujo a una reducción en la capacidad de producción de las empresas petroleras, lo cual generó para la Argentina la pérdida de la capacidad de autoabastecimiento de petróleo y combustibles.
    Description: The present paper analyzes the investment decisions made by the main companies participating in the Argentine oil market, based on the export taxes and domestic oil prices policies implemented since 2003, and how the cash flows destined for investment may have affected the oil production in Argentina. For this purpose, the financial statements corresponding to thirty participating companies of the Argentine oil industry (which together represent more than 80% of the size of the local oil industry) were studied, specially the information related to flows of funds destined to investment and changes in fixed assets. It was possible to observe that the regulation of domestic prices through the instrumentation of export taxes simultaneously caused a deterioration in the profitability of companies belonging to the oil industry. Simultaneously, the export taxes implemented between 2004 and 2015 generated a significant price gap with respect to international oil values. The persistence of this price and profitability gap over time would have affected the investment decisions made in the Argentine oil segment, with a drop on investment rates and fixed assets for that activity. This led to a reduction in the production capacity of the oil companies, which generated for Argentina the loss of the capacity of self-sufficiency of oil.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Buenos Aires: Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA)
    Publication Date: 2019-09-21
    Description: This study describes the effects of heterodox fiscal and monetary policies pursued by Argentina, associated with existing populist governments since 2004. Argentina's fiscal policy was characterized by increased public expenditures and the tax burden. The further expansion of public expenditure led to fiscal deficits that were financed by money creation, thereby triggering an inflationary process that, up to date, could not be controlled. In turn, the loss of value of the local currency led to a process of exodus of capital, which tried to be contained using exchange controls and restrictions, popularly known as "cepo cambiario" (dollar exchange clamp). The side effect of it was a significant overvaluation of the real exchange rate. In order to study the effects of these measures in private companies, the financial statements of 148 companies (that make public offer of shares in the stock market, with public financial statements) were analyzed, belonging to the sectors of construction, agriculture, food and oil industries, as well as 25 banks and financial institutions. It was observed that, in general, government policies significantly affected the profitability levels and investment rates for private companies, deteriorating margins and discouraging investment. In turn, banks and financial enterprises accompanied the rise of inflation with rising interest rates and declining loans to the productive and real estate sector, shifting its portfolio to finance short-term consumption. The results of this study can confirm the harmful effects of populist and heterodox policies over the real economy, especially related to the long-term effects associated with the loss of the investment.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Buenos Aires: Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA)
    Publication Date: 2019-09-21
    Description: Los modelos de comportamiento humano tienen por objetivo el predecir las conductas de los individuos. En el ámbito de las organizaciones, el contar con modelos predictivos de conductas resulta de enorme importancia, tanto en la selección de nuevos recursos humanos como también en la gestión de los mismos y en la resolución de conflictos de intereses opuestos. La evolución de los diferentes modelos de comportamiento humano ha incluido progresivamente diversas variables, agregando paulatinamente mayor poder explicativo y predictivo. El modelo ST-IT propuesto propone la inclusión de variables hasta ahora no integradas en los modelos de comportamiento humano, tales como la influencia del entorno sobre el individuo y sus valores morales respecto al trabajo; el efecto de la cultura organizacional; la influencia de los sistemas de control de las organizaciones; el grado de competitividad en el mercado laboral y el grado de proteccionismo existente en la legislación laboral, entre otros. La validación del modelo se realizó mediante un extenso estudio de campo sobre 212 casos, el cual permitió distinguir la existencia de individuos con apego al trabajo y valoración del deber cumplido, en contraposición a otras personas que consideran al cumplimiento laboral como un disvalor. Fue posible observar también que existiría una importante dependencia entre el nivel educativo alcanzado y tales valores personales respecto del trabajo y el sentido del deber cumplido. Por último, el estudio de campo permitiría también corroborar los efectos que el clima laboral, eficiencia de los controles de cumplimiento y competitividad del mercado laboral generan sobre los niveles de trabajo de los individuos estudiados.
    Description: Human behavior models aim to predict individual actions. For organizations management, predictive models of behaviors have great importance, both for the selection of new human resources as well as in their management and in the resolution of conflicting interests. The evolution of different models of human conducts progressively included several variables, gradually adding more explanatory and predictive power. The ST-IT model proposes the inclusion of variables not yet integrated in human behavior models, such as the influence of the environment on the individual and their moral values with respect to work; the effect of organizational culture; the influence of the organization's control systems; the degree of competitiveness in the labor market and the degree of protectionism in the labor legislation, among others. The validation of the model was carried out through an extensive field study on 212 cases, which allowed to distinguish the existence of individuals with attachment to work and assessment of the fulfilled duty, in contrast to other people who consider labor compliance as a disvalue. It was also possible to observe that there would be an important dependence between the level of education attained and such personal values respect to work and the sense of fulfilled duty. Finally, the field study would also corroborate the effects that the labor climate, efficiency of compliance controls and labor market competitiveness generate on the work levels of the individuals studied.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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