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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2012-03-31
    Description: Most tsunami models apply dislocation models that assume uniform slip over the entire fault plane, followed by standard analytical models based on Volterra's theory of elastic dislocations for the seabed deformation. In contrast, we quantify tsunami runup variability for an earthquake with fixed magnitude but with heterogeneous rupture distribution assuming plane wave propagation (i.e., an infinitely long rupture). A simple stochastic analysis of 500 slip realizations illustrates the expected variability in coseismic slip along a fault plane and the subsequent runup that occurs along a coastline in the near field. Because of the need for systematically analyzing different fault geometries, grid resolutions, and hydrodynamic models, several hundred thousand model runs are required. Thus, simple but efficient linear models for the tsunami generation, propagation, and runup estimation are used. The mean value and variability of the maximum runup is identified for a given coastal slope configuration and is analyzed for different dip angles. On the basis of the ensemble runs, nonhydrostatic effects are discussed with respect to their impact on generation, nearshore propagation, and runup. We conclude that for the geometry and magnitude investigated, nonhydrostatic effects reduce the variability of the runup; that is, hydrostatic models will produce an artificially high variability.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-03-04
    Description: Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-02-25
    Description: Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-04-19
    Description: On 18 November 1929, an M w 7.2 earthquake occurred south of Newfoundland, displacing 〉100 km 3 of sediment volume that evolved into a turbidity current. The resulting tsunami was recorded across the Atlantic and caused fatalities in Newfoundland. This tsunami is attributed to sediment mass failure because no seafloor displacement due to the earthquake has been observed. No major headscarp, single evacuation area nor large mass transport deposit has been observed and it is still unclear how the tsunami was generated. There have been few previous attempts to model the tsunami and none of these match the observations. Recently acquired seismic reflection data suggest that rotational slumping of a thick sediment mass may have occurred, causing seafloor displacements up to 100 m in height. We used this new information to construct a tsunamigenic slump source and also carried out simulations assuming a translational landslide. The slump source produced sufficiently large waves to explain the high tsunami run-ups observed in Newfoundland and the translational landslide was needed to explain the long waves observed in the far field. However, more analysis is needed to derive a coherent model that more closely combines geological and geophysical observations with landslide and tsunami modelling.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-08-02
    Description: This paper presents the geohazard assessment for a proposed bridge across Bjørnafjorden in western Norway. The fjord is c. 5 km wide with a maximum depth of 550 m at the proposed bridge crossing. The main geohazards of concern are submarine slope instabilities. To identify locations of instability, their susceptibility to failure, and their potential runout distances, we performed the following analyses: (1) static and pseudo-static limit equilibrium analyses for the entire fjord crossing area; (2) 1D seismic slope stability sensitivity analyses for different slope angles and soil depths; (3) 2D static and pseudo-static finite element analyses for selected profiles; (4) back-analysis of a palaeolandslide; and (5) quasi-2D and quasi-3D landslide dynamic simulations calibrated using results from the back-analysis. The workflow progresses from simplified to more advanced analyses focusing on the most critical locations. The results show that the soils in many locations of the fjord are potentially unstable and could be the loci of landslides and debris flows. The evidence of numerous palaeosubmarine landslides identified on geophysical records reinforces this conclusion. However, the landslide triggers and timing are currently unknown. This paper demonstrates the need for comprehensive and multidisciplinary geohazard analyses for any infrastructure projects conducted in fjords.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2014-06-01
    Description: The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had a significant impact on the Tamil Nadu coast in India. In this paper, a range of field survey data collected by different survey teams available in literature have been analyzed and compiled to serve as a basis for validation of numerical tsunami simulations. The individual field surveys reveal a significant scatter in the run-up data between the different teams, which point out that the uncertainty in these data must be taken into account when using them for validation. The inundation of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated for the coastlines of Chennai and Nagapattinam based on high-resolution topography. Different spatially uniform Manning friction as well as heterogeneous friction maps is used. Overall, the simulation results showed a good agreement with the field observations, but there are also some observed spatial variability in the goodness of the fit between the data and simulations. In some areas, clear discrepancies are found. The results obtained using detailed land use maps including spatially variable friction are not significantly more accurate than those employing spatially constant values. For most areas, parameters indicating relatively low friction provided best match with the observations. This may also suggest that the inundation is often strongly governed by local variations in topography. ©2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
    Print ISSN: 0921-030X
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-0840
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018
    Description: 〈p〉This paper presents the geohazard assessment for a proposed bridge across Bjørnafjorden in western Norway. The fjord is 〈i〉c.〈/i〉 5 km wide with a maximum depth of 550 m at the proposed bridge crossing. The main geohazards of concern are submarine slope instabilities. To identify locations of instability, their susceptibility to failure, and their potential runout distances, we performed the following analyses: (1) static and pseudo-static limit equilibrium analyses for the entire fjord crossing area; (2) 1D seismic slope stability sensitivity analyses for different slope angles and soil depths; (3) 2D static and pseudo-static finite element analyses for selected profiles; (4) back-analysis of a palaeolandslide; and (5) quasi-2D and quasi-3D landslide dynamic simulations calibrated using results from the back-analysis. The workflow progresses from simplified to more advanced analyses focusing on the most critical locations. The results show that the soils in many locations of the fjord are potentially unstable and could be the loci of landslides and debris flows. The evidence of numerous palaeosubmarine landslides identified on geophysical records reinforces this conclusion. However, the landslide triggers and timing are currently unknown. This paper demonstrates the need for comprehensive and multidisciplinary geohazard analyses for any infrastructure projects conducted in fjords.〈/p〉
    Print ISSN: 0375-6440
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018
    Description: 〈p〉On 18 November 1929, an M〈sub〉w〈/sub〉 7.2 earthquake occurred south of Newfoundland, displacing 〉100 km〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 of sediment volume that evolved into a turbidity current. The resulting tsunami was recorded across the Atlantic and caused fatalities in Newfoundland. This tsunami is attributed to sediment mass failure because no seafloor displacement due to the earthquake has been observed. No major headscarp, single evacuation area nor large mass transport deposit has been observed and it is still unclear how the tsunami was generated. There have been few previous attempts to model the tsunami and none of these match the observations. Recently acquired seismic reflection data suggest that rotational slumping of a thick sediment mass may have occurred, causing seafloor displacements up to 100 m in height. We used this new information to construct a tsunamigenic slump source and also carried out simulations assuming a translational landslide. The slump source produced sufficiently large waves to explain the high tsunami run-ups observed in Newfoundland and the translational landslide was needed to explain the long waves observed in the far field. However, more analysis is needed to derive a coherent model that more closely combines geological and geophysical observations with landslide and tsunami modelling.〈/p〉
    Print ISSN: 0375-6440
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
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