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  • 1
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    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, Wiley, 41(17), pp. 6252-6258, ISSN: 0094-8276
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: The transient response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to a deglacial ice-sheet retreat is studied using the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), with a focus on orographic effects rather than meltwater discharge. It is found that the AMOC weakens significantly (41%) in response to the deglacial ice-sheet retreat. The AMOC weakening follows the decrease of the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet volume linearly, with no evidence of abrupt thresholds. A wind-driven mechanism is proposed to explain the weakening of the AMOC: lowering the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets induces a northward shift of the westerlies, which causes a rapid eastward sea-ice transport and expanded sea-ice cover over the subpolar North Atlantic; this expanded sea ice insulates the ocean from heat loss and leads to suppressed deep convection and a weakened AMOC. A sea ice-ocean positive feedback could be further established between the AMOC decrease and sea-ice expansion.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 18 (2005): 5224–5238, doi:10.1175/JCLI3588.1.
    Description: Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the equatorial Pacific occur during the development of most El Niño events and are believed to be a major factor in ENSO's dynamics. Because of their short time scale, WWBs are normally considered part of a stochastic forcing of ENSO, completely external to the interannual ENSO variability. Recent observational studies, however, suggest that the occurrence and characteristics of WWBs may depend to some extent on the state of ENSO components, implying that WWBs, which force ENSO, are modulated by ENSO itself. Satellite and in situ observations are used here to show that WWBs are significantly more likely to occur when the warm pool is extended eastward. Based on these observations, WWBs are added to an intermediate complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO model. The representation of WWBs is idealized such that their occurrence is modulated by the warm pool extent. The resulting model run is compared with a run in which the WWBs are stochastically applied. The modulation of WWBs by ENSO results in an enhancement of the slow frequency component of the WWBs. This causes the amplitude of ENSO events forced by modulated WWBs to be twice as large as the amplitude of ENSO events forced by stochastic WWBs with the same amplitude and average frequency. Based on this result, it is suggested that the modulation of WWBs by the equatorial Pacific SST is a critical element of ENSO's dynamics, and that WWBs should not be regarded as purely stochastic forcing. In the paradigm proposed here, WWBs are still an important aspect of ENSO's dynamics, but they are treated as being partially stochastic and partially affected by the large-scale ENSO dynamics, rather than being completely external to ENSO. It is further shown that WWB modulation by the large-scale equatorial SST field is roughly equivalent to an increase in the ocean-atmosphere coupling strength, making the coupled equatorial Pacific effectively self-sustained.
    Description: IE and ET are supported by the US National Science Foundation Climate Dynamics program grant ATM-0351123. LY is supported by NASA ocean vector wind science team under JPL contract 1216955 and NSF Climate Dynamics grant ATM-0350266.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: 1181136 bytes
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2014-02-18
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-03-09
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this trend, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted to have decreased in models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation of models (CMIP3). Here simulations are examined from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. It is found that simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced by volcanic forcing, which was included in all of the CMIP5 models but in only about half of the CMIP3 models. The volcanic forcing causes temporary simulated cooling in the 1980s and 1990s, which contributes to raising the simulated 1979–2013 global-mean surface temperature trends to values substantially larger than observed. It is shown that this warming bias is accompanied by an enhanced rate of Arctic sea ice retreat and hence a simulated sea ice trend that is closer to the observed value, which is consistent with previous findings of an approximately linear relationship between sea ice extent and global-mean surface temperature. Both generations of climate models are found to simulate Arctic sea ice that is substantially less sensitive to global warming than has been observed. The results imply that much of the difference in Arctic sea ice trends between CMIP3 and CMIP5 occurred because of the inclusion of volcanic forcing, rather than improved sea ice physics or model resolution.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-07-01
    Description: Sea ice features a dense inner pack ice zone surrounded by a marginal ice zone (MIZ) in which the sea ice properties are modified by interaction with the ice-free open ocean. The width of the MIZ is a fundamental length scale for polar physical and biological dynamics. Several different criteria for establishing MIZ boundaries have emerged in the literature—wave penetration, floe size, sea ice concentration, etc.—and a variety of definitions for the width between the MIZ boundaries have been published. Here, three desirable mathematical properties for defining MIZ width are proposed: invariance with respect to translation and rotation on the sphere; uniqueness at every point in the MIZ; and generality, including nonconvex shapes. The previously published streamline definition is shown to satisfy all three properties, where width is defined as the arc length of a streamline through the solution to Laplaces’s equation within the MIZ boundaries, while other published definitions each satisfy only one of the desired properties. When defining MIZ spatial average width from streamline results, the rationale for averaging with respect to distance along both MIZ boundaries was left implicit in prior studies. Here it is made rigorous by developing and applying the mathematics of an analytically tractable idealization of MIZ geometry—the eccentric annulus. Finally, satellite-retrieved Arctic sea ice concentrations are used to investigate how well streamline-based MIZ spatial average width is approximated by alternative definitions that lack desirable mathematical properties or local width values but offer computational efficiency.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-05-01
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-06-16
    Description: The fate of icebergs in the polar oceans plays an important role in Earth’s climate system, yet a detailed understanding of iceberg dynamics has remained elusive. Here, the central physical processes that determine iceberg motion are investigated. This is done through the development and analysis of an idealized model of iceberg drift. The model is forced with high-resolution surface velocity and temperature data from an observational state estimate. It retains much of the most salient physics, while remaining sufficiently simple to allow insight into the details of how icebergs drift. An analytical solution of the model is derived, which highlights how iceberg drift patterns depend on iceberg size, ocean current velocity, and wind velocity. A long-standing rule of thumb for Arctic icebergs estimates their drift velocity to be 2% of the wind velocity relative to the ocean current. Here, this relationship is derived from first principles, and it is shown that the relationship holds in the limit of small icebergs or strong winds, which applies for typical Arctic icebergs. For the opposite limit of large icebergs (length 〉 12 km) or weak winds, which applies for typical Antarctic tabular icebergs, it is shown that this relationship is not applicable and icebergs move with the ocean current, unaffected by the wind. The latter regime is confirmed through comparisons with observed iceberg trajectories near the Antarctic Peninsula.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-07-20
    Description: Climate models consistently project (i) a decline in the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and (ii) a strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. These two processes suggest potentially conflicting tendencies of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): a weakening AMOC due to changes in the North Atlantic but a strengthening AMOC due to changes in the Southern Ocean. Here we focus on the transient evolution of the global ocean overturning circulation in response to a perturbation to the NADW formation rate. We propose that the adjustment of the Indo-Pacific overturning circulation is a critical component in mediating AMOC changes. Using a hierarchy of ocean and climate models, we show that the Indo-Pacific overturning circulation provides the first response to AMOC changes through wave processes, whereas the Southern Ocean overturning circulation responds on longer (centennial to millennial) time scales that are determined by eddy diffusion processes. Changes in the Indo-Pacific overturning circulation compensate AMOC changes, which allows the Southern Ocean overturning circulation to evolve independently of the AMOC, at least over time scales up to many decades. In a warming climate, the Indo-Pacific develops an overturning circulation anomaly associated with the weakening AMOC that is characterized by a northward transport close to the surface and a southward transport in the deep ocean, which could effectively redistribute heat between the basins. Our results highlight the importance of interbasin exchange in the response of the global ocean overturning circulation to a changing climate.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-06-20
    Description: During recent decades, there has been dramatic Arctic sea ice retreat. This has reduced the top-of-atmosphere albedo, adding more solar energy to the climate system. There is substantial uncertainty regarding how much ice retreat and associated solar heating will occur in the future. This is relevant to future climate projections, including the timescale for reaching global warming stabilization targets. Here we use satellite observations to estimate the amount of solar energy that would be added in the worst-case scenario of a complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice throughout the sunlit part of the year. Assuming constant cloudiness, we calculate a global radiative heating of 0.71 W/m2 relative to the 1979 baseline state. This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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