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  • 1
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    In:  [Talk] In: 49. Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Congress , 3105.-04.06.2015, Whistler, BC, Canada .
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    In:  [Poster] In: AGU Fall Meeting 2014, 15.-19.12.2014, San Francisco, USA .
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
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  • 4
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    IOP Publishing
    In:  Environmental Research Letters, 12 (1). 015002.
    Publication Date: 2018-02-05
    Description: Previous studies have shown that global mean surface air temperature remains elevated after cessation of CO2 emissions. However, studies differ in whether the temperature continues to increase, slowly decreases, or remains constant after cessation of emissions. An understanding of this committed warming is of importance because it has implication for the estimation of carbon budgets compatible with temperature targets. Here, we investigate the effect of the state of thermal and bio-geochemical equilibration at the time emissions are set to zero on the committed warming as the latter is determined by the balance of these two equilibration processes. We find that the effect of thermal equilibration, expressed as fraction of realized warming, dominates over the bio-geochemical equilibration, expressed as ratio of the airborne fraction to the equilibrium airborne fraction. This leads to a positive warming commitment, and a commitment that declines the later emissions are zeroed along a trajectory of constant atmospheric CO2 concentration. We furthermore show that the scenario prior to zeroed emissions has the strongest effect on the warming commitment, compared to the time of zeroed emissions and the time horizon over which the commitment is calculated.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
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    In:  [Talk] In: 50. Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Congress , 29.05.- 02.06.2016, Fredericton, NB, Canada .
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
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  • 6
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    In:  [Talk] In: EGU General Assembly 2014, 27.04.-02.05.2014, Vienna, Austria .
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 7
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    In:  [Poster] In: ''Breaking the Ice'' Faculty of Environment (FENV) Seasonal Celebration, 02.12.2014, Burnaby, BC, Canada .
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
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  • 8
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    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics, 5 (2). pp. 383-397.
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
    Description: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) carries large amounts of heat into the North Atlantic influencing climate regionally as well as globally. Palaeo-records and simulations with comprehensive climate models suggest that the positive salt-advection feedback may yield a threshold behaviour of the system. That is to say that beyond a certain amount of freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, no meridional overturning circulation can be sustained. Concepts of monitoring the AMOC and identifying its vicinity to the threshold rely on the fact that the volume flux defining the AMOC will be reduced when approaching the threshold. Here we advance conceptual models that have been used in a paradigmatic way to understand the AMOC, by introducing a density-dependent parameterization for the Southern Ocean eddies. This additional degree of freedom uncovers a mechanism by which the AMOC can increase with additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, before it reaches the threshold and collapses: an AMOC that is mainly wind-driven will have a constant upwelling as long as the Southern Ocean winds do not change significantly. The downward transport of tracers occurs either in the northern sinking regions or through Southern Ocean eddies. If freshwater is transported, either atmospherically or via horizontal gyres, from the low to high latitudes, this would reduce the eddy transport and by continuity increase the northern sinking which defines the AMOC until a threshold is reached at which the AMOC cannot be sustained. If dominant in the real ocean this mechanism would have significant consequences for monitoring the AMOC.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 9
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  Journal of Climate, 30 (8). pp. 2921-2935.
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: The ratio of global mean surface air temperature change to cumulative CO2 emissions, referred to as transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), has been shown to be approximately constant on centennial time scales. The mechanisms behind this constancy are not well understood, but previous studies suggest that compensating effects of ocean heat and carbon fluxes, which are governed by the same ocean mixing processes, could be one cause for this approximate constancy. This hypothesis is investigated by forcing different versions of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, which differ in the ocean mixing parameterization, with an idealized scenario of 1% annually increasing atmospheric CO2 until quadrupling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration and constant concentration thereafter. The relationship between surface air warming and cumulative emissions remains close to linear, but the TCRE varies between model versions, spanning the range of 1.2°–2.1°C EgC−1 at the time of CO2 doubling. For all model versions, the TCRE is not constant over time while atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase. It is constant after atmospheric CO2 stabilizes at 1120 ppm, because of compensating changes in temperature sensitivity (temperature change per unit radiative forcing) and cumulative airborne fraction. The TCRE remains approximately constant over time even if temperature sensitivity, determined by ocean heat flux, and cumulative airborne fraction, determined by ocean carbon flux, are taken from different model versions with different ocean mixing settings. This can partially be explained with temperature sensitivity and cumulative airborne fraction following similar trajectories, which suggests ocean heat and carbon fluxes scale approximately linearly with changes in vertical mixing.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 10
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    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics, 9 (1). pp. 197-210.
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: n the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to "well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial" levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1% yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1% yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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