Publication Date:
2019-07-13
Description:
The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosolcloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosolcloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosolcloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.
Keywords:
Meteorology and Climatology
Type:
GSFC-E-DAA-TN35100
,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (e-ISSN 1091-6490); 113; 21; 5781–5790
Format:
text
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