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  • 1
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-17
    Description: Faster urbanization plays a key role in the Chinese economic transformation. However, at the Lewis turning point, the hukou institution constitutes a serious risk to the process, as it restricts the access of migrants to public services offered by cities. To attract further migration, firms started to accept a premium on top of the wage. Thus, the social discrimination introduced by the hukou system is partially compensated by the reactions of market participants, as migrant workers receive additional pay. Based on huge cross sections of private households, this paper provides insights into the size and the evolution of the wage premium. After controlling for standard wage determinants, such as sex, education, experience and ownership of firms, we find that the premium amounts to 7 percent of the hourly wage. Because of the premium, the share of non-wage labor costs is on the rise, especially for low-skilled migrants. To avoid further distortions and reduce inefficiencies, the hukou status should be unified. Migrants should obtain urban hukou as long as they live in cities. They should keep their land use rights when they are in the rural areas. Otherwise, the system could constitute a significant barrier for further urbanization. The removal of institutional bias could restore the link between wages and productivity and improve the allocation of labor.
    Keywords: J30 ; R23 ; C23 ; ddc:330 ; Chinese economic transformation ; wage premium ; hukou reform
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-07-17
    Description: The relevance of spatial effects in the wage curve can be rationalized by the model of monopsonistic competition in regional labour markets. However, distortions in extracting the regional unemployment effects arise in standard regional (i.e. NUTS) classifications as they fail to adequately capture spatial processes. In addition, the nonstationarity of wages and unemployment is often ignored. Both issues are particularly important in high unemployment regimes like East Germany where a wage curve is difficult to establish. In this paper, labour market regions defined by economic criteria are used to examine the existence of an East German wage curve. Due to the nonstationarity of spatial data, a global panel cointegration approach is adopted. By specifying a spatial error correction model (SpECM), equilibrium adjustments are investigated in time and space. The analysis gives evidence on a locally but not a spatially cointegrated wage curve for East Germany.
    Keywords: J30 ; J60 ; C33 ; R15 ; ddc:330 ; wage curve ; labour market regions ; global cointegration ; spatial error-correction model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Cobb-Douglas-Produktionsfunktion ; Regression ; Kointegration ; Schätzung ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 4
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: In this paper a structural macroeconometric model for the Eurozone is presented. In opposite to the multi country modelling approach, the model relies on aggregate data on the supra-national level. Due to nonstationarity, all equations are estimated in an error correction form. The cointegrating relations are derived jointly with the short-run dynamics, avoiding the finite sample bias of the two step Engle Granger procedure. The validity of the aggregated approach is confirmed by out-of-sample forecasts and two simulation exercises. In particular the implications of a lower economic recovery in the US and a shock in the nominal Euro area interest rate are discussed.
    Keywords: C3 ; C5 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; Euro area economy ; macroeconometric models ; error correction ; Ökonometrisches Makromodell ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Frankfurt (Oder): European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both international spillovers, for instance international dependencies in the interest rate setting of central banks, and nonlinear reaction patterns can offer a more realistic specification of the Taylor rule in the main industrial countries. The inclusion of international spillovers and, even more, nonlinear dynamics improves the explanatory power of standard Taylor reaction functions. Deviations from Taylor rates tend to be smaller and their negative trend can be eliminated.
    Keywords: E43 ; F36 ; C22 ; ddc:330 ; Taylor rule ; international spillovers ; monetary policy interaction ; smooth transition models
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-07-17
    Description: The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource-rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumption-driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources.
    Keywords: F44 ; E32 ; C32 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle divergence ; Chinese transformation ; Bayesian VARs
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: In diesem Beitrag werden die Konsequenzen der Einführung eines Kombilohns für Sozialhilfeempfänger anhand des Vorschlags des Bundesministeriums für Gesundheit untersucht. Nach Erläuterung der sogenannten Sozialhilfefalle werden die Ergebnisse einer mikroökonometrischen Arbeitsangebotsschätzung präsentiert. Es zeigt sich, dass nur sehr bescheidene Beschäftigungserfolge zu erwarten sind, dafür ist mit bedeutenden fiskalischen Risiken für die Sozialhilfeträger zu rechnen.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 8
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: Der Beitrag untersucht die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Rückwirkungen der aktuellen Ölpreissteigerungen. Dabei werden verschiedene Szenarien hinsichtlich der Preisentwicklung betrachtet. Die Analyse zeigt, dass die Produktions- und Beschäftigungsverluste höherer Ölpreise nicht an die Krisen der siebziger Jahre heranreichen und relativ moderat bleiben.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 9
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: Der Artikel untersucht, wie sich die Beschäftigungsschwelle des Wirtschaftswachstums in Ländern der Europäischen Währungsunion im Zeitablauf entwickelt hat. Es zeigt sich, dass die Beschäftigungsschwelle eher gesunken ist, sodass für einen Abbau der Arbeitslosigkeit am aktuellen Rand vergleichsweise geringere Raten des Wirtschaftswachstums erforderlich sind. Das Wachstum muss jedoch von strukturellen Reformen am Arbeitsmarkt begleitet sein.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 10
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: Im Beitrag werden die Wanderungsströme zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland auf der Ebene der Bundesländer untersucht. Dazu werden panelökonometrische Verfahren eingesetzt. Die Analyse zeigt, dass sich die Ströme nur unzureichend durch makroökonomische Faktoren erklären lassen. Die Ursachen dürften demnach im individuenspezifischen Bereich zu finden sein.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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