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  • 1
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    Future Climate Change under RCP Emission Scenarios with GISS ModelE2 (2015)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-17
    Description: We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the twenty first century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101-2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a non-interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0ºC to 4.5ºC relative to 1850-1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the twenty-first century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5-4.5ºC at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO 2 , aerosol effects and greater methane feedbacks and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning streamfunction by 2100. In RCP2.6 there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
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    The QBO in two GISS Global Climate Models: Part 1: Generation of the QBO (2014)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2014-07-13
    Description: The adjustment of parameterized gravity waves associated with model convection and finer vertical resolution has made possible the generation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in two GISS models, GCMAM III and a climate/middle atmosphere version of Model E2. Both extend from the surface to 0.002 hPa, with 2°x2.5° resolution and 102 layers. Many realistic features of the QBO are simulated, including magnitude and variability of its period and amplitude. The period itself is affected by the magnitude of parameterized convective gravity wave momentum fluxes, and interactive ozone (which also affects the QBO amplitude and variability), among other forcings. Although varying SSTs affect the parameterized momentum fluxes, neither aspect is responsible for the modeled variation in QBO period. Both the parameterized and resolved waves act to produce the respective easterly and westerly wind descent, although their effect is offset in altitude at each level. The modeled and observed QBO influences on tracers in the stratosphere, such as ozone, methane and water vapor are also discussed. Due to the link between the gravity wave parameterization and the models' convection, and the dependence on the ozone field, the models may also be used to investigate how the QBO may vary with climate change.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
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    Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate (1999)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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    Publication Date: 1999-04-09
    Description: Results from a global climate model including an interactive parameterization of stratospheric chemistry show how upper stratospheric ozone changes may amplify observed, 11-year solar cycle irradiance changes to affect climate. In the model, circulation changes initially induced in the stratosphere subsequently penetrate into the troposphere, demonstrating the importance of the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. The model reproduces many observed 11-year oscillations, including the relatively long record of geopotential height variations; hence, it implies that these oscillations are likely driven, at least in part, by solar variability.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Shindell -- Rind -- Balachandran -- Lean -- Lonergan -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1999 Apr 9;284(5412):305-8.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA. E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375, USA.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10195893" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 4
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    Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum (2001)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2001-12-12
    Description: We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 degrees to 0.4 degrees C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 degrees to 2 degrees C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Shindell, D T -- Schmidt, G A -- Mann, M E -- Rind, D -- Waple, A -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2001 Dec 7;294(5549):2149-52.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11739952" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 5
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    Complexity and climate (1999)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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    Publication Date: 1999-04-02
    Description: The climate that we experience results from both ordered forcing and chaotic behavior; the result is a system with characteristics of each. In forecasting prospective climate changes for the next century, the focus has been on the ordered system's responses to anthropogenic forcing. The chaotic component may be much harder to predict, but at this point it is not known how important it will be.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Rind -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1999 Apr 2;284(5411):105-7.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA. E-mail: drind@giss.nasa.gov.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10102804" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 6
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    Sun-climate connections. Earth's response to a variable Sun (2001)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2001-04-18
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Lean, J -- Rind, D -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2001 Apr 13;292(5515):234-6.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375, USA.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11305317" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 7
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    The Sun's role in climate variations (2002)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2002-04-27
    Description: Is the Sun the controller of climate changes, only the instigator of changes that are mostly forced by the system feedbacks, or simply a convenient scapegoat for climate variations lacking any other obvious cause? This question is addressed for suggested solar forcing mechanisms operating on time scales from billions of years to decades. Each mechanism fails to generate the expected climate response in important respects, although some relations are found. The magnitude of the system feedbacks or variability appears as large or larger than that of the solar forcing, making the Sun's true role ambiguous. As the Sun provides an explicit external forcing, a better understanding of its cause and effect in climate change could help us evaluate the importance of other climate forcings (such as past and future greenhouse gas changes).〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Rind, D -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2002 Apr 26;296(5568):673-7.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA. drind@giss.nasa.gov〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11976436" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 8
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    Seasonal precipitation timing and ice core records (1995)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 1995-07-14
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Charles, C D -- Rind, D -- Jouzel, J -- Koster, R D -- Fairbanks, R G -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1995 Jul 14;269(5221):247-8.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17789853" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 9
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    Glacial-interglacial changes in moisture sources for greenland: influences on the ice core record of climate (1994)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 1994-01-28
    Description: Large, abrupt shifts in the (l8)O/(16)O ratio found in Greenland ice must reflect real features of the climate system variability. These isotopic shifts can be viewed as a result of air temperature fluctuations, but determination of the cause of the changes-the most crucial issue for future climate concerns-requires a detailed understanding of the controls on isotopes in precipitation. Results from general circulation model experiments suggest that the sources of Greenland precipitation varied with different climate states, allowing dynamic atmospheric mechanisms for influencing the ice core isotope shifts.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Charles, C D -- Rind, D -- Jouzel, J -- Koster, R D -- Fairbanks, R G -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1994 Jan 28;263(5146):508-11.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17754884" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 10
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    Atmospheric CO2: principal control knob governing Earth's temperature (2010)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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    Publication Date: 2010-10-16
    Description: Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. This is because CO(2), like ozone, N(2)O, CH(4), and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO(2) and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Lacis, Andrew A -- Schmidt, Gavin A -- Rind, David -- Ruedy, Reto A -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2010 Oct 15;330(6002):356-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1190653.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA. andrew.a.lacis@nasa.gov〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20947761" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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