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  • 1
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    Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios (2015)
    In:  EPIC3Science, 349(6243), pp. aac4722-1-aac4722-10, ISSN: 0036-8075
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 2
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    Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services [Sustainability Science] (2015)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Managing ecosystems for multiple ecosystem services and balancing the well-being of diverse stakeholders involves different kinds of trade-offs. Often trade-offs involve noneconomic and difficult-to-evaluate values, such as cultural identity, employment, the well-being of poor people, or particular species or ecosystem structures. Although trade-offs need to be considered for successful environmental...
    Keywords: Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 3
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    Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios (2016)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2016-06-24
    Description: The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high-resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad ( Tenualosa ilisha ), which accounts for ca. 11% of total catches, and Bombay duck ( Harpadon nehereus ), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low-income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh exclusive economic zone by 〈10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices, we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed, catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared with the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of 〈20% compared with current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change (2016)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2016-06-24
    Description: The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria ) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems (2016)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2016-06-24
    Description: Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Benefits of the Paris Agreement to ocean life, economies, and people (2019)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈p〉The Paris Agreement aims to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on ecological and social systems. Using an ensemble of climate-marine ecosystem and economic models, we explore the effects of implementing the Agreement on fish, fishers, and seafood consumers worldwide. We find that implementing the Agreement could protect millions of metric tons in annual worldwide catch of top revenue-generating fish species, as well as billions of dollars annually of fishers’ revenues, seafood workers’ income, and household seafood expenditure. Further, our analysis predicts that 75% of maritime countries would benefit from this protection, and that ~90% of this protected catch would occur within the territorial waters of developing countries. Thus, implementing the Paris Agreement could prove to be crucial for the future of the world’s ocean ecosystems and economies.〈/p〉
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 7
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    Preparing ocean governance for species on the move (2018)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In: Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-06-15
    Keywords: Ecology
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 8
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    How to make progress in projecting climate change impacts (2013)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-08-22
    Description: Cheung, W. W. L., Pauly, D., and Sarmiento, J. L. 2013. How to make progress in projecting climate change impacts. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1069–1074. Scientific modelling has become a crucial tool for assessing climate change impacts on marine resources. Brander et al. criticize the treatment of reliability and uncertainty of such models, with specific reference to Cheung et al. (2013 , Nature Climate Change , 3: 254–258) and their projections of a decrease in maximum body size of marine fish under climate change. Here, we use the specific criticisms of Brander et al . (2013 , ICES Journal of Marine Science ) on Cheung et al . (2013) as examples to discuss ways to make progress in scientific modelling in marine science. We address the technical criticisms by Brander et al. , then their more general comments on uncertainty. The growth of fish is controlled and limited by oxygen, as documented in a vast body of peer-reviewed literature that elaborates on a robust theory based on abundant data. The results from Cheung et al . were obtained using published, reproducible and peer-reviewed methods, and the results agree with the empirical data; the key assumptions and uncertainties of the analysis were stated. These findings can serve as a step towards improving our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. We suggest that, as in other fields of science, it is important to develop incrementally (or radically) new approaches and analyses that extend, and ultimately improve, our understanding and projections of climate change effects on marine ecosystems.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries (2019)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈p〉Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a "business-as-usual" emission scenario, ~90% of the world’s population—most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries—are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries—including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 producers—would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies’ vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.〈/p〉
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 10
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    Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-03-07
    Description: Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to explore the effects of future global changes in biodiversity. Previous studies show that variability is introduced into projected distributions through alternative datasets and modelling procedures. However, a multi-model approach to assess biogeographic shifts at the global scale is still rarely applied, particularly in the marine environment. Here, we apply three commonly used SDMs (AquaMaps, Maxent, and the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model) to assess the global patterns of change in species richness, invasion, and extinction intensity in the world oceans. We make species-specific projections of distribution shift using each SDM, subsequently aggregating them to calculate indices of change across a set of 802 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates. Results indicate an average poleward latitudinal shift across species and SDMs at a rate of 15.5 and 25.6 km decade –1 for a low and high emissions climate change scenario, respectively. Predicted distribution shifts resulted in hotspots of local invasion intensity in high latitude regions, while local extinctions were concentrated near the equator. Specifically, between 10°N and 10°S, we predicted that, on average, 6.5 species would become locally extinct per 0.5° latitude under the climate change emissions scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Average invasions were predicted to be 2.0 species per 0.5° latitude in the Arctic Ocean and 1.5 species per 0.5° latitude in the Southern Ocean. These averaged global hotspots of invasion and local extinction intensity are robust to the different SDM used and coincide with high levels of agreement.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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