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  • 1
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    Unknown
    Santa Cruz, CA: University of California, Economics Department
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: We introduce a time series model that captures both long memory and conditional heteroskedasticity and assess their ability to describe the US inflation data. Specifically, the model allows for long memory in the conditional mean formulation and uses a normal mixture GARCH process to characterize conditional heteroskedasticity. We find that the proposed model yields a good description of the salient features, including skewness and heteroskedasticity, of the US inflation data. Further, the performance of the proposed model compares quite favorably with, for example, ARMA and ARFIMA models with GARCH errors characterized by normal, symmetric and skewed Student-t distributions.
    Keywords: C22 ; C51 ; C52 ; E31 ; ddc:330 ; Conditional Heteroskedasticity ; Skewness ; Inflation ; Long Memory ; Normal Mixture ; Inflation ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; ARCH-Modell ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Santa Cruz, CA: University of California, Economics Department
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: The article examines the Hong Kong export performance. A standard export demand formulation is used as the benchmark. Then, we investigate the effects of real exchange rate volatility, “third” country competition, domestic wages, and costs of imports from China on export volume. The study models the Hong Kong domestic exports and re-exports separately, compares the performance of exports to the rest of the world, US and Japan, and uses destination-and-export-type specific unit value indexes to construct real exchange rates. It is found that Hong Kong export performance varies across export types and across destinations. In general, Hong Kong exports display mean-reverting dynamics, are positively influenced by foreign income, and are adversely affected by high value of its currency. The lagged export variable, foreign income, and real exchange rate provide most of the explanatory power. The other variables contribute only marginally in explaining the variability of Hong Kong exports.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Hong Kong Export Performance
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Santa Cruz, CA: University of California, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics (SCIIE)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample, when using the 2006 vintage of the World Development Indicators. The economic magnitude of the misalignment is substantial - on the order of 50 percent in log terms. However, the misalignment is typically not statistically significant, in the sense of being more than two standard errors away from the conditional mean. However, this finding disappears completely when using the most recent 2008 vintage of data; then the estimated undervaluation is on the order of 10 percent. Second, we find that Chinese multilateral trade flows respond to relative prices - as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate - but the relationship is not always precisely estimated. In addition, the direction of the effects is sometimes different from what is expected a priori. For instance, Chinese ordinary imports actually rise in response to a RMB depreciation; however, Chinese exports appear to respond to RMB depreciation in the expected manner, as long as a supply variable is included. In that sense, Chinese trade is not exceptional. Furthermore, Chinese trade with the United States appears to behave in a standard manner - especially after the expansion in the Chinese manufacturing capital stock is accounted for. Thus, the China-US trade balance should respond to real exchange rate and relative income movements in the anticipated manner. However, in neither the case of multilateral nor bilateral trade flows should one expect quantitatively large effects arising from exchange rate changes. And, of course, these results are not informative with regard to the question of how a change in the RMB/USD exchange rate would affect the overall US trade deficit. Finally, we stress the fact that considerable uncertainty surrounds both our estimates of RMB misalignment and the responsiveness of trade flows to movements in exchange rates and output levels. In particular, the results for trade elasticities are sensitive to econometric specification, accounting for supply effects, and for the inclusion of time trends.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Wechselkurs ; Kaufkraftparität ; Außenwirtschaft ; Zahlungsbilanz ; China ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Copenhagen: University of Copenhagen, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: This paper examines the implications for the Nordic Countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) of participating in the finan stage of the European Monetary Union. Economic linkages with Germany are estimated using a time series approach under both the Bretton Woods and the post-Bretton Woods exchange rate regimes. Output responses of the Nordic countries to permanent and transitory disturbances are estimated and compared with two small core members, Belgium and the Netherlands.〈p〉 We find that the long-standing EU members (Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands) are closely integrated with Germany in that German shocks have a direct and large impact on their output developments. These linkages appear much weaker for Finland, Norway and Sweden. Common European disturbances also do not distinguish the Nordic countries from the non-Nordic countries.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Unknown
    Santa Cruz, CA: University of California, Economics Department
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: The status of real and financial integration of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan is investigated using monthly data on one-month interbank rates, exchange rates, and prices. Specifically, the degree of integration is assessed based on the empirical validity of real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. In particular, China and Hong Kong appear to have experienced significant increases in integration during the sample period. It is also found that exchange rate variability plays a major role in determining the variability of deviations from these parity conditions.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; uncovered interest parity ; real interest parity ; purchasing power parity ; exchange rates ; capital mobility ; market integration
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Unknown
    Santa Cruz, CA: University of California, Economics Department
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: Previous assessments of forecasting performance of exchange rate models have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage. The canonical papers in this literature are by Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1988), who examined monetary and portfolio balance models. Succeeding works by Mark (1995) and Chinn and Meese (1995) focused on similar models. In this paper we re-assess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade: interest rate parity, productivity based models, and a composite specification incorporating the real interest differential, portfolio balance and nontradables price channels. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications – the purchasing power parity and the Dornbusch-Frankel sticky price monetary model. The models are estimated in error correction and first-difference specifications. Rather than estimating the cointegrating vector over the entire sample and treating it as part of the ex ante information set as is commonly done in the literature, we also update the cointegrating vector, thereby generating true ex ante forecasts. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the “consistency” test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). No model consistently outperforms a random walk, by a mean squared error measure; however, along a direction-of-change dimension, certain structural models do outperform a random walk with statistical significance. Moreover, one finds that these forecasts are cointegrated with the actual values of exchange rates, although in a large number of cases, the elasticity of the forecasts with respect to the actual values is different from unity. Overall, model/specification/currency combinations that work well in one period will not necessarily work well in another period.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; exchange rates ; monetary model ; productivity ; interest rate parity ; purchasing power parity ; forecasting performance
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage, including monetary and portfolio balance models. In this paper we re-assess the in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade, namely interest rate parity, productivity based models, and behavioral equilibrium exchange rate models. These models are compared against a benchmark model, the Dornbusch-Frankel sticky price monetary model. First, the parameter estimates of the models are compared against the theoretically predicted values. Second, we conduct an extensive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, using the last eight years of data to determine whether our in-sample conclusions hold up. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the “consistency” test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). We find that no model fits the data particularly well, nor does any model consistently out-predict a random walk, even at long horizons. There is little correspondence between how well a model conforms to theoretical priors and how well the model performs in a prediction context. However, we do confirm previous findings that out-performance of a random walk is more likely at long horizons.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; exchange rates ; monetary model ; productivity ; interest rate parity ; behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model ; forecasting performance
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Unknown
    Santa Cruz, CA: University of California, Economics Department
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: The linkages between the People's Republic of China and the other Chinese economies of Hong Kong and Taiwan are assessed, and compared against those with Japan and the US. We first characterize the time series behavior of three criteria of integration, namely real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence that these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods between the People's Republic of China and all other economies, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. Amongst all, however, Hong Kong exhibits indications of a more advanced level of integration with the mainland. We also find that evidence is surprisingly positive for integration with the US. We then turn to examining the determinants of the degree of integration. Regression results suggest that the degrees of financial and integration depend upon the extent of capital controls, foreign direct investment linkages as well as exchange rate volatility.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; uncovered interest parity ; real interest parity ; purchasing power parity ; exchange rates ; capital mobility ; market integration
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Unknown
    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rate rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under commitment offers some encouraging results - exchange rate changes calibrated from the equation have a positive and significant correlation with actual data, and offer good direction of change prediction. Our exercise also demonstrates the role of the foreign exchange risk premium in determining exchange rates and the difficulty of explaining exchange rate variability using only policy based fundamentals.
    Keywords: F31 ; E52 ; C52 ; ddc:330 ; Taylor Rule ; exchange rate determination ; mean squared prediction error ; direction of change ; foreign exchange risk premium
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Unknown
    Osnabrück: Osnabrück University, Institute of Empirical Economic Research
    Publication Date: 2018-11-13
    Description: We study China's illicit capital flow and document a change in its pattern. Specifically, we observe that China's capital flight, especially the one measured by trade misinvoicing, exhibits a weakened response in the post-2007 period to the covered interest disparity, which is a theoretical determinant of capital flight. Further analyses indicate that the post-2007 behavior is influenced by quantitative easing and other factors including exchange rate variability, capital control policy and trade frictions. Our study confirms that China's capital flight pattern and its determinants are affected by the crisis event. Further, both the canonical and additional explanatory variables have different effects on different measures of capital flight. These results highlight the challenges of managing China's capital flight, which requires information on the period and the type of capital flight that the policy authorities would like to target.
    Keywords: F3 ; F32 ; G15 ; ddc:330 ; World Bank Residual Method ; Trade Misinvoicing ; Quantitative Easing ; Capital Controls ; Covered Interest Disparity
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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