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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-04-19
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 5100–5121, doi:10.1175/JCLI3902.1.
    Description: Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.
    Keywords: Atlantic Ocean ; Climate prediction ; Variational studies ; Tropical variability ; North Atlantic Oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-06-27
    Description: © ATMOSFERA, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of ATMOSFERA for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Atmósfera 26 (2013): 261-281.
    Description: The global distribution, seasonal evolution, and underlying mechanisms for the climatological midsummer drought (MSD) are investigated using a suite of relatively high spatial and temporal resolution station observations and reanalysis data with particular focus on the Pacific coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Although the MSD of Central America stands out in terms of spatial scale and coherence, it is neither unique to the Greater Caribbean Region (GCR) nor necessarily the strongest MSD on Earth based on an objective analysis of several global precipitation data sets. A mechanism for the MSD is proposed that relates the latitudinal dependence of the two climatological precipitation maxima to the biannual crossing of the solar declination (SD), driving two peaks in convective instability and hence rainfall. In addition to this underlying local mechanism, a number of remote processes tend to peak during the apex of the MSD, including the North American monsoon, the Caribbean low-level jet, and the North Atlantic subtropical high, which may also act to suppress rainfall along the Pacific coast of Central America and generate interannual variability in the strength or timing of the MSD. However, our findings challenge the existing paradigm that the MSD owes its existence to a precipitation-suppressing mechanism. Rather, aided by the analysis of higher-temporal resolution precipitation records and considering variations in latitude, we suggest the MSD is essentially the result of one precipitation-enhancing mechanism occurring twice.
    Description: The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program, under awards NA10OAR0110239 to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, NA10OAR4310253 to the University of Maryland, and NA10OAR4310252 to Columbia University.
    Keywords: Midsummer drought ; Pacific ; Precipitation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-01-04
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 40 (2010): 2768–2777, doi:10.1175/2010JPO4461.1.
    Description: Although sustained observations yield a description of the mean equatorial current system from the western Pacific to the eastern terminus of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array, a comprehensive observational dataset suitable for describing the structure and pathways of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) east of 95°W does not exist and therefore climate models are unconstrained in a region that plays a critical role in ocean–atmosphere coupling. Furthermore, ocean models suggest that the interaction between the EUC and the Galápagos Islands (92°W) has a striking effect on the basic state and coupled variability of the tropical Pacific. To this end, the authors interpret historical measurements beginning with those made in conjunction with the discovery of the Pacific EUC in the 1950s, analyze velocity measurements from an equatorial TAO mooring at 85°W, and analyze a new dataset from archived shipboard ADCP measurements. Together, the observations yield a possible composite description of the EUC structure and pathways in the eastern equatorial Pacific that may be useful for model validation and guiding future observation.
    Description: Karnauskas acknowledges the WHOI Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists.
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Currents ; In situ observations ; Model evaluation/performance ; Pacific Ocean ; Tropics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-07-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89 (2008): 1111–1125, doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2462.1.
    Description: The Pilot Research Moored Array in the tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) was developed as a multinational observation network to improve our knowledge and understanding of ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic. PIRATA was motivated by fundamental scientific issues and by societal needs for improved prediction of climate variability and its impact on the economies of West Africa, northeastern Brazil, the West Indies, and the United States. In this paper the implementation of this network is described, noteworthy accomplishments are highlighted, and the future of PIRATA in the framework of a sustainable tropical Atlantic observing system is discussed. We demonstrate that PIRATA has advanced beyond a “Pilot” program and, as such, we have redefined the PIRATA acronym to be “Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic.”
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-03-02
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth's Future 6 (2018): 80–102, doi:10.1002/2017EF000627.
    Description: Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.
    Keywords: Climate observations ; Climate Observing System Simulation Experiments ; Value of information ; Economic value ; Grand challenges
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The cause of decadal-scale variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean—such as that marked by the 1976–77 shift in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation—is poorly understood. Unravelling the mechanism of the recent decade-long warming in the tropical upper ocean is a ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Heat content anomalies are analyzed to understand subsurface variability on both aparticular focus on the evolving basinwide patterns and oceanic connections between the extratropics and tropics. Various analyses indicate two distinct modes, one interannual and the other decadal, that involve the tropics and the North Pacific subtropical gyre, respectively. Interannual variability is associated with El Niño in the tropics, with a prominent “see-saw” pattern alternately on and off the equator, and in the east and west, respectively. The interannual cycle features a coherent propagation of subsurface signals around the tropical Pacific, eastward along the equator but westward off the equator at 10–15 °N. Decadal signals are dominant in the subtropics and midlatitudes but also have a tropical component that appears to be independent of interannual variations. An oceanic connection can be seen between subsurface anomalies in the midlatitudes, in the subtropics and tropics on decadal time scales. Subsurface thermal anomalies associated with midlatitude decadal variability can propagate through the subtropics into the tropics, which may modulate the intensity of interannual variability in the tropics. For example, in the middle and late 1970s, a significant warm temperature anomaly appeared to penetrate into the western and central tropics at depth, warming the tropical upper ocean and depressing the thermocline. During the development of El Niño, therefore, an extratropically preconditioned subsurface state (e.g., an enhanced positive heat content anomaly) in the western and central tropical Pacific would favor a warmer sea surface temperature anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific, potentially increasing the intensity of ocean-atmosphere coupling. These changes in the thermocline structure and possibly in the coupling strength can further alter the very character of tropical air-sea interactions. This may help to explain decadal variability of El Niño evolution in the tropical Pacific as observed in the 1980s. Our subsurface variability analysis presents observational evidence for the detailed space-time structure of decadal oceanic links between the extratropics and the tropics.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-08-23
    Description: Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 9
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    In:  CLIVAR Exchanges, 26 (8 (2-3)). pp. 3-5.
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 10
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    In:  Other Sources
    Publication Date: 2011-08-23
    Description: For many years, merchant ships and the naval fleets of various countries have been the major source of data over and in the open ocean. Oceanographic research experiments and process studies in the field have also contributed to the climatological data bases for the global ocean, but, for the most part, these have been limited in duration and extent. However, over the last 10 years under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program and the International Geosphere Biosphere Program the role of the oceans in global and climate change has taken on increased significance. This has created a need for a considerably improved understanding of the seasonal, interannual, decadal and longer time-scale variability of the physical and biogeochemical attributes of the global ocean. As a result, over the past 10 years several major international field programs have been implemented and have had a tremendous impact on the number of in situ observations obtained for the global ocean. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) were designed with observational, modelling, and process study components aimed at analyzing different aspects of the ocean's role in the coupled climate system. In parallel with the field programs, continuous space-based observations of sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, and sea surface winds spanning nearly a decade or longer have become a reality. During this same time period, numerical ocean models and computational power have advanced to the point where the oceanographic observations, both in situ and remotely sensed, can be assimilated into numerical ocean models in order to provide a four-dimensional (x-y-z-t) depiction of the evolving state of the global ocean.
    Keywords: Oceanography
    Type: Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes Research Publications; 19-20
    Format: text
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