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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: Given the consequences and global significance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the representation of El Niño diversity in climate models for the present day and the future. In recent decades, El Niño events have occurred more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events have increased in intensity. However, the processes and future implications of these observed changes in El Niño are not well understood. Here, the frequency and intensity of El Niño events are assessed in models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and results are compared to extended instrumental and multicentury paleoclimate records. Future changes of El Niño are stronger for CP events than for EP events and differ between models. Models with a projected La Niña–like mean-state warming pattern show a tendency toward more EP but fewer CP events compared to models with an El Niño–like warming pattern. Among the models with more El Niño–like warming, differences in future El Niño can be partially explained by Pacific decadal variability (PDV). During positive PDV phases, more El Niño events occur, so future frequency changes are mainly determined by projected changes during positive PDV phases. Similarly, the intensity of El Niño is strongest during positive PDV phases. Future changes to El Niño may thus depend on both mean-state warming and decadal-scale natural variability.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-10-01
    Print ISSN: 0168-1923
    Electronic ISSN: 1873-2240
    Topics: Geography , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Physics
    Published by Elsevier
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2010-03-01
    Print ISSN: 1755-1307
    Electronic ISSN: 1755-1315
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Institute of Physics
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  • 4
  • 5
    Publication Date: 2010-03-15
    Description: The dynamics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied in terms of the balance between energy input from the winds (via wind power) and changes in the storage of available potential energy in the tropical ocean. Presently, there are broad differences in the way global general circulation models simulate the dynamics, magnitude, and phase of ENSO events; hence, there is a need for simple, physically based metrics to allow for model evaluation. This energy description is a basinwide, integral, quantitative approach, ideal for intermodel comparison, that assesses model behavior in the subsurface ocean. Here it is applied to a range of ocean models and data assimilations within ENSO spatial and temporal scales. The onset of an El Niño is characterized by a decrease in wind power that leads to a decrease in available potential energy, and hence a flatter thermocline. In contrast, La Niña events are preceded by an increase in wind power that leads to an increase in the available potential energy and a steeper thermocline. The wind power alters the available potential energy via buoyancy power, associated with vertical mass fluxes that modify the slope of the isopycnals. Only a fraction of wind power is converted to buoyancy power. The efficiency of this conversion γ is estimated in this study at 50%–60%. Once the energy is delivered to the thermocline it is subject to small, but important, diffusive dissipation. It is estimated that this dissipation sets the e-folding damping rate α for the available potential energy on the order of 1 yr−1. The authors propose to use the efficiency γ and the damping rate α as two energy-based metrics for evaluating dissipative properties of the ocean component of general circulation models, providing a simple method for understanding subsurface ENSO dynamics and a diagnostic tool for exploring differences between the models.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2010-01-15
    Description: Variations in the warm water volume (WWV) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are considered a key element of the dynamics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. WWV, a proxy for the upper-ocean heat content, is usually defined as the volume of water with temperatures greater than 20°C. It has been suggested that the observed variations in WWV are controlled by interplay among meridional, zonal, and vertical transports (with vertical transports typically calculated as the residual of temporal changes in WWV and the horizontal transport divergence). Here, the output from a high-resolution ocean model is used to calculate the zonal and meridional transports and conduct a comprehensive analysis of the mass balance above the 25 kg m−3 σθ surface (approximating the 20°C isotherm). In contrast to some earlier studies, the authors found that on ENSO time scales variations in the diapycnal transport across the 25 kg m−3 isopycnal are small in the eastern Pacific and negligible in the western and central Pacific. In previous observational studies, the horizontal transports were estimated using Ekman and geostrophic dynamics; errors in these approximations were unavoidably folded into the estimates of the diapycnal transport. Here, the accuracy of such estimates is assessed by recalculating mass budgets using the model output at a spatial resolution similar to that of the observations. The authors show that errors in lateral transports can be of the same order of magnitude as the diapycnal transport itself. Further, the rate of change of WWV correlates well with wind stress curl (a driver of meridional transport). This relationship is explored using an extended version of the Sverdrup balance, and it is shown that the two are correlated because they both have the ENSO signal and not because changes in WWV are solely attributable to the wind stress curl.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-10-16
    Description: Climate models often exhibit spurious long-term changes independent of either internal variability or changes to external forcing. Such changes, referred to as model “drift,” may distort the estimate of forced change in transient climate simulations. The importance of drift is examined in comparison to historical trends over recent decades in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Comparison based on a selection of metrics suggests a significant overall reduction in the magnitude of drift from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3) to phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). The direction of both ocean and atmospheric drift is systematically biased in some models introducing statistically significant drift in globally averaged metrics. Nevertheless, for most models globally averaged drift remains weak compared to the associated forced trends and is often smaller than the difference between trends derived from different ensemble members or the error introduced by the aliasing of natural variability. An exception to this is metrics that include the deep ocean (e.g., steric sea level) where drift can dominate in forced simulations. In such circumstances drift must be corrected for using information from concurrent control experiments. Many CMIP5 models now include ocean biogeochemistry. Like physical models, biogeochemical models generally undergo long spinup integrations to minimize drift. Nevertheless, based on a limited subset of models, it is found that drift is an important consideration and must be accounted for. For properties or regions where drift is important, the drift correction method must be carefully considered. The use of a drift estimate based on the full control time series is recommended to minimize the contamination of the drift estimate by internal variability.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2015-12-01
    Description: The complex nature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often simplified through the use of conceptual models, each of which offers a different perspective on the ocean–atmosphere feedbacks underpinning the ENSO cycle. One theory, the unified oscillator, combines a variety of conceptual frameworks in the form of a coupled system of delay differential equations. The system produces a self-sustained oscillation on interannual time scales. While the unified oscillator is assumed to provide a more complete conceptual framework of ENSO behaviors than the models it incorporates, its formulation and performance have not been systematically assessed. This paper investigates the accuracy of the unified oscillator through its ability to replicate the ENSO cycle modeled by flux-forced output from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Ocean Model (ACCESS-OM). The anomalous sea surface temperature equation reproduces the main features of the corresponding tendency modeled by ACCESS-OM reasonably well. However, the remaining equations for the thermocline depth anomaly and zonal wind stress anomalies are unable to accurately replicate the corresponding tendencies in ACCESS-OM. Modifications to the unified oscillator, including a diagnostic form of the zonal wind stress anomaly equations, improve its ability to emulate simulated ENSO tendencies. Despite these improvements, the unified oscillator model is less adept than the delayed oscillator model it incorporates in capturing ENSO behavior in ACCESS-OM, bringing into question its usefulness as a unifying ENSO framework.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2012-07-01
    Description: Even in the absence of external forcing, climate models often exhibit long-term trends that cannot be attributed to natural variability. This so-called climate drift arises for various reasons including the following: perturbations to the climate system on coupling component models together and deficiencies in model physics and numerics. When examining trends in historical or future climate simulations, it is important to know the error introduced by drift so that action can be taken where necessary. This study assesses the importance of drift for a number of climate properties at global and local scales. To illustrate this, the present paper focuses on simulated trends over the second half of the twentieth century. While drift in globally averaged surface properties is generally considerably smaller than observed and simulated twentieth-century trends, it can still introduce nontrivial errors in some models. Furthermore, errors become increasingly important at smaller scales. The direction of drift is not systematic across different models or variables, as such drift is considerably reduced in the multimodel mean. Despite drift being primarily associated with ocean adjustment, it is also apparent in atmospheric variables. For example, most models have local drift magnitudes in surface air and ocean temperatures that are typically between 15% and 35% of the twentieth-century simulation trend magnitudes for 1950–2000. Below depths of 1000–2000 m, drift dominates over any forced trend in most regions. As such steric sea level is strongly affected and for some models and regions the sea level trend direction is reversed. Thus depending on the application, drift may be negligible or may make up an important part of the simulated trend.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2007-07-01
    Description: Brown et al. analyzed the kinematics of flow in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, along time-varying isopycnals in a three-dimensional eddy-permitting model. Here the dynamics of these flows is explored in the same model via the zonal momentum equation (ZME). Previous work has shown that the dominant terms of the ZME, on and near the equator, are the pressure gradient, wind stress, and Coriolis term. In one model study, the nonlinear and friction terms were significant but negated each other. In this study, with a higher-resolution model and more realistic friction scheme it is shown that the nonlinear term is important along and north of the equator, while the explicit friction term is negligible. The part of the nonlinear term derived from high-frequency eddy flows acts like a friction on the Equatorial Undercurrent, while the remaining part of the nonlinear term from smooth flows enhances it. In density coordinates, meridional tropical cells lie on either side of the equator in the first half of the year (January–June) as expected. In July–December, a continuous southward surface flow appears from 4°N into the Southern Hemisphere and arises from variations in the geostrophic flow and the nonlinear term. Variations in the geostrophic flow are due to both seasonal variability in the thermocline and a surface bolus effect arising from baroclinic instability. The nonlinear term increases in the surface layers at the same time assisting the southward flow, most likely because of tropical instability waves.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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