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  • 1
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    Uppsala: Uppsala University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: Financial intermediation and bank spreads are important elements in the analysis of business cycle transmission and monetary policy. We present a simple framework that introduces lending relationships, a relevant feature of financial intermediation that has been so far neglected in the monetary economics literature, into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with staggered prices and cost channels. Our main findings are: (i) banking spreads move countercyclically generating amplified output responses, (ii) spread movements are important for monetary policy making even when a standard Taylor rule is employed (iii) modifying the policy rule to include a banking spread adjustment improves stabilization of shocks and increases welfare when compared to rules that only respond to output gap and inflation, and finally (iv) the presence of strong lending relationships in the banking sector can lead to indeterminacy of equilibrium forcing the central bank to react to spread movements.
    Keywords: E44 ; E52 ; G21 ; ddc:330 ; Endogenous Banking Spread ; Credit Markets ; Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission ; Firm-bank Relationships ; Geldpolitik ; Kreditmarkt ; Zinsstruktur ; Taylor-Regel ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; Theorie
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Uppsala: Uppsala University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: This paper analyzes the effectiveness of delegation in solving the time inconsistency problem of monetary policy using a microfounded general equilibrium model where delegation and reappointment are explicitly included into the government's strategy. The method of Chari and Kehoe (1990) is applied to characterize the entire set of sustainable outcomes. Countering McCallum's (1995) second fallacy, delegation is able to eliminate the time inconsistency problem, with the commitment policy being sustained under discretion for any intertemporal discount rate.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; E61 ; ddc:330 ; Central Bank ; Monetary Policy ; Institutional Design ; Zentralbank ; Geldpolitisches Ziel ; Zeitkonsistenz ; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We propose a model that delivers endogenous variations in term spreads driven primarily by banks' portfolio decision and their appetite to bear the risk of maturity transformation. We first show that fluctuations of the future profitability of banks' portfolios affect their ability to cover for any liquidity shortage and hence influence the premium they require to carry maturity risk. During a boom, profitability is increasing and thus spreads are low, while during a recession profitability is decreasing and spreads are high, in accordance with the cyclical properties of term spreads in the data. Second, we use the model to look at monetary policy and show that allowing banks to sell long-term assets to the central bank after a liquidity shock leads to a sharp decrease in long-term rates and term spreads. Third, such interventions have significant impact on long-term investment, decreasing the amplitude of output responses after a liquidity shock. The short-term rate does not need to be decreased as much and inflation turns out to be much higher than if no QE interventions were implemented. Finally, we provide macro- and microeconometric evidence for the U.S. to show the importance of expected financial business profitability in the determination of term spread fluctuations.
    Keywords: E43 ; E44 ; E52 ; G20 ; ddc:330 ; yield curve ; quantitative easing ; financial business profits ; bank portfolio ; Zinsstruktur ; Geldpolitik ; Bank ; Portfolio-Management ; Rentabilität ; Theorie ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-02-18
    Description: Excessive waiting times for elective surgery have been a long-standing concern in many national healthcare systems in the OECD. How do the hospital admission patterns that generate waiting lists affect different patients? What are the hospitals characteristics that determine waiting times? By developing a model of healthcare provision and analysing empirically the entire waiting time distribution we attempt to shed some light on those issues. We first build a theoretical model that describes the optimal waiting time distribution for capacity constraint hospitals. Secondly, employing duration analysis, we obtain empirical representations of that distribution across hospitals in the UK from 1997-2005. We observe important differences on the "scale" and on the "shape" of admission rates. Scale refers to how quickly patients are treated and shape represents trade-offs across duration-treatment profiles. By fitting the theoretical to the empirical distributions we estimate the main structural parameters of the model and are able to closely identify the main drivers of these empirical differences. We find that the level of resources allocated to elective surgery (budget and physical capacity), which determines how constrained the hospital is, explains differences in scale. Changes in benefits and costs structures of healthcare provision, which relate, respectively, to the desire to prioritise patients by duration and the reduction in costs due to delayed treatment, determine the shape, affecting short and long duration patients differently.
    Keywords: I11 ; I18 ; H51 ; ddc:330 ; Waiting time ; Hospitals ; Public health provision ; Rationing ; Pioritisation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper develops a model to explain the determinants of financial dollarization. Expanding on the existing literature, our framework allows interest rate differentials to play a role in explaining financial dollarization. It also accounts for the increasing presence of foreign banks in the local financial sector. Using a newly compiled data set on transition economies we find that increasing access to foreign funds leads to higher credit dollarization, while it decreases deposit dollarization. Interest rate differentials matter for the dollarization of both loans and deposits. Overall, the empirical results lend support to the predictions of our theoretical model.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Financial Dollarization ; Foreign Banks ; Interest Rate Differentials ; Transition Economies ; Finanzmarkt ; Währungssubstitution ; Internationale Bank ; Zinsstruktur
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-04-16
    Description: In a monetary union, the interaction between several governments and a single central bank is plagued by several sources of deficit bias, including common pool problems. Each government has strong preferences over local spending and taxation but suffers only part of the costs of union-wide inflation and higher interest rates, creating a tendency towards excessive debt. Motivated by the evident failure of fiscal rules to restrain debt in the European context, this paper analyzes an alternative fiscal regime in which the control of sovereign debt issurance is delegated to an independent authority, while public spending decisions remain decentralized. Using a symmetric perfect-foresight model, we compare the long-run policy biases affecting a typical country across different institutional arrangements. Establishing an independent fiscal authority tends to reduce debt via three distinct channels: first, the debt aversion induced by its mandate; second, its greater patience, compared to an elected institution; and third, the internalization of common pool problems, if the authority is established at the union-wide level. Furthermore, we show that fiscal delegation is more effective in restraining debt, and more informationally efficient, than the establishment of a federal government which would centralize fiscal decisions.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; F41 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal authority ; delegation ; decentralization ; monetary union ; sovereign debt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-06-07
    Description: The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key macroeconomic variables is estimated using a Panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The panel data variability assists the identification of direct effects of demographics, while the dynamic structure uncovers long-term effects. Young and old dependants are found to have a negative impact while workers contribute positively. We propose a theoretical model, highlighting the relationship between demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and reduced fertility is found to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.
    Keywords: E32 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; population age profile ; medium-term ; output growth ; innovation ; life-cycle ; Kuznets cycles
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: During the 15 years prior to the global financial crisis the volume of securitized assets transacted in the US grew substantially, reflecting a change in the nature of the financial intermediation process. Together with increased securitization of assets, financial entities, who participate more heavily in the asset-backed security (ABS) market and hold a diversified portfolio of assets, have also become more relevant. As a result, the volume of securitization, although traditionally associated with credit markets, influences the outcomes of other asset markets. We investigate the link between securitization and asset prices and show that increases in the growth rate of the volume of ABS issuance lead to a decline in both the bond and equity premia. We then build a model of bank portfolio choice where the creation of synthetic securities may occur. The pooling and tranching of credit assets relaxes both the funding and the risk constraints financial entities face allowing them to increase balance sheet holdings. This increase in asset demand depresses the compensation for undertaking risk in the economy, confirming our empirical results. Crucially, we show that declines in the compensation for risk taking in equity and bonds due to securitization may not be related to a decline in actual risk.
    Keywords: E44 ; G12 ; G20 ; ddc:330 ; pooling and tranching ; equity ; government bonds ; bank portfolio ; risk premia
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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