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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-09-20
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-09-20
    Description: After a strong second quarter, the global upturn appears to remain intact, economic and political turmoils notwithstanding, especially in the United States and the euro area. Therefore, DIW Berlin is slightly raising its forecast for the global economy this year to 4.2 percent. Over the course of the rest of the year, however, non-recurring effects are likely to disappear in the United States, causing growth to slow down somewhat. Thus, for the coming year, DIW Berlin is remaining with its forecast from early summer, which estimated growth of 3.9 percent. Due to the improving labor markets, private consumption continues to be the most important support of the upturn in the global economy. Monetary policy remains expansionary for the time being but this will gradually change. Uncertainties regarding US trade policy are a risk to global trade, which will likely dampen investment in the further course of the forecast period. Further risk factors are the economic policies of the new Italian government and the threat of a hard Brexit. The turbulence in Turkey, on the other hand, is unlikely to have a major impact.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-12-30
    Description: The world economy is gaining momentum after sluggish growth in the first half 2016 - which was primarily due to a weak expansion in the emerging markets - gave way to a slight acceleration. This trend is likely to continue, and will increasingly benefit the developed economies as well. The brightening labor market situation in advanced countries is leading to a higher level of consumer demand, which will remain a primary growth driver. As a result of the improved sales opportunities, the currently weak corporate investment activity should pick up again. The growth of global economic output is expected to amount to 3.3 percent this year, and is expected to be slightly higher in the coming two years. This development will be supported by fiscal policy, while monetary policy is likely to become more contractionary globally in the course of further U. S. interest rate hikes. There remain significant risks, however - especially in Europe, where political uncertainty is high due to the Brexit decision and the upcoming elections in key EU member states, among other factors.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-04
    Description: In many advanced economies, there has been a declining trend in interest rates over the past thirty years. Since the financial crisis, interest rates have remained particularly low. Though a decrease in inflation explains part of the fall in nominal interest rates, there is also a clear downtrend in real interest rates. Against this backdrop, a debate has emerged over the factors that might have contributed to this decline. Potential persistent factors discussed under the heading of "secular stagnation" include a decline in profitable investment opportunities and high global savings rates. It is often argued that, due to these factors, the so-called natural interest rate, which is the level of interest rate consistent with stable, non-inflationary growth, has decreased. However, there are also arguments that the low interest rates are transitory and are due to factors such as post-crisis private debt deleveraging, a temporary "savings glut", or higher regulatory burdens for firms and households. This report summarizes the discussion on the underlying causes of the low interest rate environment and the potential for a period of secular stagnation.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-03-24
    Description: The global economy is stalling. Global production increased by only 3.3 percent last year-the lowest growth rate since the financial crisis-and is expected to rise by only 3.3 percent in 2016 as well, which is lower than originally predicted. The reason for the sluggish growth lies primarily in the changes taking place in the emerging countries: the Chinese economy continues to lose momentum, and low export revenues in the commodity-exporting countries are hindering economic activity. In the industrialized countries, however, the moderate pace of growth continues, not least due to increased purchasing power, which is in turn partly due to the decreased energy costs. In these countries, consumption remains an important pillar of growth and the labor market situation is improving. By contrast, investment remains subdued and only minor stimuli are expected from net exports since the momentum in the emerging countries is likely to increase only slightly in the coming year. The risks to the global economy are skewed to the downside. Increased uncertainty in the financial markets could worsen financing conditions. The euro area is facing the risk of deflation. In spite of the currently gloomy global economic environment, the German economy is developing robustly. Although weak demand in the overseas markets led to a decline in German's industrial production in the second half of 2015, it has been on the rise once again since the beginning of this year. During the forecast period, exports should benefit from a gradually improving global economy. Germany's strong domestic economy, which is fueled primarily by increased private consumption, serves as a critical growth-driver. Employment continues to grow and wage increases can still be observed. The money being spent on the housing, care, and integration of the refugees is boosting consumption-and although these costs are substantial, the public budget will continue to run high surpluses. Financial leeway, however, is expected to become more limited.The German economy is likely to grow by 1.6 percent this year by 1.6 percent, and by 1.5 percent in the coming year.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: After the global financial crisis, some governments in the EU experienced serious debt financing problems, while others were less affected. This paper seeks to shed light on the divergent fiscal performance by assessing the fiscal conduct in the EU countries before and after the outbreak of the crisis. Fiscal reaction functions of the primary balance are estimated for different groups of EU countries using quarterly data for the pre-crisis period 2001-2008 and for the post-crisis period 2009-2012. The pre-crisis estimations reveal some differences in persistence and cyclical reaction between different groups of countries, but generally little feedback from the debt stock to the primary balance. The countries that eventually developed fiscal problems do not stand out. The post-crisis estimations show less counter-cyclicality and much more feedback from the debt stock, and these reactions are particularly pronounced for the countries with severe fiscal problems.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal reaction function ; global financial crisis ; debt crisis ; structural break
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: In the course of the economic and financial crisis, investment activity, which was not very strong to begin with, in Europe and especially the Eurozone caved in. In relation to gross domestic product, fixed capital formation declined by four percentage points since 2008. Already prior to the crisis, investment activity was rather weak in parts of the Eurozone - amongst others in Germany. This finding is indicated by model simulations which account for country-specific macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand, especially in southern European economies, investment - mostly in the home construction sector - was markedly high before the crisis. These investments were however mainly financed by capital inflows from abroad. In the course of the crisis, foreign direct investment slumped and so did investment activity in these countries which has not been counterbalanced by higher investments in other parts of the monetary union. As a result, current investment in the Eurozone remains markedly below the level corresponding to macroeconomic conditions. When measured against this baseline, there was an underinvestment of around two percent on average in relation to gross domestic product between 2010 and 2012. This is associated with significant reductions in growth in the short and long run since the capital stock needed to maintain production capacity is growing rather slowly. If investment activity in the Eurozone had been correspondingly stronger, potential growth in the monetary union could have been 0.2 percentage points higher than observed since the crisis.
    Keywords: E22 ; E27 ; F21 ; ddc:330 ; investment ; potential growth ; construction
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: The German economy continues to recover, and will grow by 2.2 percent in 2015 and by 1.9 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate will further decline, to 6.4 percent this year and 6.1percent in 2016. Inflation, which averages 0.5 percent this year, will be substantially dampened by the slump in oil prices; in 2016 as well, inflation will remain low, at 1.2 percent. The global economy continues in its recovery. In industrialized countries, a gradually improving situation in labor markets, as well as the slump in oil prices, is propelling the purchasing power of private consumers. Corporate investment activity should also pick up, benefitting from easy monetary policy. In many economies in the euro area, unemployment remains high and the public and private debt is dampening demand. For the time being, growth in the emerging markets is expected to lag behind. Overall, the average annual growth rate of the global economy is expected to be 3.8 percent in 2015, and 4.0 percent in the following year. The German economy is currently recovering, driven by strong domestic demand, and should be back on its potential path later on. Inflation is bound to remain weak. There is no sign of the German economy overheating; important markets have lost momentum when compared to the pre-crisis years - foreign trade is therefore likely to provide only minor stimulus, and in this environment, investments in equipment and machinery will only experiencea moderate expansion. Government revenues are surging: despite a rather loose spending behavior, the public budget surpluses will reach approximately 0.5 percent in both years of the forecast period.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: The German economy is on track, and will likely grow by 1.8 percent this year; in the coming year, with a slight increase in dynamics, it will grow by 1.9 percent. With these figures DIW Berlin confirms its forecast from this summer. Employment growth continues; the unemployment rate will decrease this year to 6.4 percent, where it will remain in 2016. Due to the sharp drop in oil prices this year, inflation is low and stands at 0.4 percent; next year it will climb to 1.4 percent. Global economic growth is likely to experience a slight increase during the forecast period. In the industrialized countries in particular, the renewed drop in energy prices keeps inflation rates low. In addition, many countries have experienced steady improvements in labor markets. Together, these two factors support consumption and the purchasing power of households. Recovery in the euro area is moving forward. The euro's external value is low, the monetary policy is very expansionary, and major trading partners are growing vigorously; consumption is likely to develop well, and in the course of time, corporate investment is also expected to recover. In the emerging markets, growth will remain subdued this year. Higher financial market volatility is leading to deterioration in financing conditions. They are expected to contribute more to global growth next year, when for example Russia and Brazil have emerged from recession. German exports continue their upward trend: A strong upturn in major industrial countries, as well as the continued recovery within the euro area, are compensating for the somewhat weaker demand from the emerging countries. In net terms, however, foreign trade barely contributes to growth, because imports will increase significantly as part of the dynamic domestic economy. Consumption is supporting the growth of the German economy. The low inflation substantially supports consumers' purchasing power. But nominal incomes are also experiencing strong increases: The employment growth continues - the number of employed individuals is expected to rise at roughly the rate of previous quarters - and wages have noticeably increased, also due to the introduction of the minimum wage. Other important factors are the significant increases in social benefits; these are primarily due to a sharp increase in pensions, but also to the benefits being received by the refugees, which should give private consumption an additional boost. In contrast, investment will be rather subdued overall. Concerns about the future of the euro area are likely to dampen investment plans. Furthermore, considerable uncertainties about the development of important markets have recently intensified, particularly in China. There are also unresolved geopolitical conflicts, especially the tensions with Russia. Nevertheless, a moderate expansion of investment in equipment is emerging. With robust foreign demand and fully utilized capacities in the industry, these investments are expected to rise over time, especially since the dynamic domestic demand should provide an impetus. However, the risks to the economy remain high and in fact have recently increased. The impending interest rate turnaround in the U.S. could lead to unexpectedly strong capital outflows from the emerging countries; given the high private debt - especially since it is often in foreign currency - this could dampen economic momentum in these countries as well. Although a significant slump in the Chinese economy is expected to be handled with expansionary measures by the government, there is the risk that they may not take sufficient countermeasures in time. It has also been shown in the past that uncertainty about the further development of European integration can flare up quickly. In addition, the recently high volatility of oil prices shows that a new stable equilibrium still has not been established on the market. The planning uncertainty bound up with this could dampen the disposition of many corporations more strongly than assumed here.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: The German economy is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year, and to maintain this pace in 2016 as well. The rate of growth should slow down slightly (to 1.5 percent) in 2017, but only because the number of working days will be lower due to the timing of public holidays. The global economy is growing at a slower pace than it has been in recent years, but will pick up speed during the forecast period. The recessions in Russia and Brazil are coming to an end, China is orienting its economy toward more consumption-so far, without any major disruptions-and growth in the U.S. and the UK remains strong. The euro area is on the path to recovery, albeit at a moderate pace: Job creation, while modest, and an increase in real income are spurring demand in many countries. The global economy's average annual growth rate is expected to rise from 3.4 percent this year to 3.6 next year, and to 3.9 percent in the following year. In Germany, strong private consumption is the primary growth driver. The main reason for this is the ongoing pattern of strong growth of the wage bill. In the coming year, this year's positive effect of lower oil prices on households' purchasing power will fall away-yet positive impulses will also arise as a result of the refugee influx. This is connected with the care, accommodation, and integration of refugees and with the consumption this creates, as well as with increased activity in the construction industry. In contrast, investment in equipment will develop only modestly. In addition to the overall slightly weaker global sales prospects, there are also domestic factors with dampening effects. Despite robust exports, foreign trade will not contribute to growth in net terms since the dynamic domestic economy is spurring imports more powerfully.
    Keywords: E32 ; E66 ; F01 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle forecast ; economic outlook
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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