Publication Date:
2017-11-01
Description:
Recent Himalayan earthquakes have ruptured only the down-dip part of the underthrusting fault plane, bringing the respective up-dip sections closer to failure by transferring stress. We estimate the losses likely when the complementary up-dip sections also fail following the 1947 M 7.9 Subansiri and the 1905 M 7.8 Kangra down-dip ruptures. We estimate that the population strongly affected (intensities ≥VI) may number 12 million and 33 million in the 1947 and the 1905 up-dip segments, respectively. The number of fatalities is estimated to be about 100,000 and 200,000 in the 1947 and 1905 up-dip segments, respectively, with an estimated three times as many injured. We assess the uncertainties of these values to be factors of ~4, unless larger earthquakes, including neighboring segments are involved, in which case the casualties would be significantly larger.
Print ISSN:
0895-0695
Electronic ISSN:
1938-2057
Topics:
Geosciences
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