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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-01-01
    Description: This study analyzed the top 1% 24-hour rainfall events from 1994 to 2013 at eight climatological sites that represent the east to west precipitation gradient across the Arkansas-Red River Basin in North America. A total of 131 cases were identified and subsequently classified on the synoptic-scale, mesoscale, and local-scale to compile a climatological analysis of these extreme, heavy rainfall events based on atmospheric forcings. For each location, the prominent midtropospheric pattern, mesoscale feature, and predetermined thermodynamic variables were used to classify each 1% rainfall event. Individual events were then compared with other cases throughout the basin. The most profound results were that the magnitudes of the thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy and precipitable water values were poor predictors of the amount of rainfall produced in these extreme events. Further, the mesoscale forcings had more of an impact during the warm season and for the westernmost locations, whereas synoptic forcings were extremely prevalent during the cold season at the easternmost locations in the basin. The implications of this research are aimed at improving the forecasting of heavy precipitation at individual weather forecasts offices within the basin through the identified patterns at various scales.
    Print ISSN: 1687-9309
    Electronic ISSN: 1687-9317
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Hindawi
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-05-07
    Description: Flash droughts tend to be disproportionately destructive because they intensify rapidly and are difficult to prepare for. We demonstrate that the 2017 U.S. Northern Great Plains (NGP) flash drought was preceded by a breakdown of land-atmosphere coupling. Severe drought conditions in the NGP were first identified by drought monitors in late May 2017 and rapidly progressed to exceptional drought in July. The likelihood of convective precipitation in May 2017 in northeastern Montana, however, resembled that of a typical August when rain is unlikely. Based on the lower tropospheric humidity index (HIlow), convective rain was suppressed by the atmosphere on nearly 50 % of days during March in NE Montana and central North Dakota, compared to 30 % during a normal year. Micrometeorological variables, including potential evapotranspiration, were neither anomalously high nor low before the onset of drought. Incorporating convective likelihood to drought forecasts would have noted that convective precipitation in the NGP was anomalously unlikely during the early growing season of 2017. It may therefore be useful to do so in regions that rely on convective precipitation.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-2116
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-08-07
    Description: Flash droughts tend to be disproportionately destructive because they intensify rapidly and are difficult to prepare for. We demonstrate that the 2017 US Northern Great Plains (NGP) flash drought was preceded by a breakdown of land–atmosphere coupling. Severe drought conditions in the NGP were first identified by drought monitors in late May 2017 and rapidly progressed to exceptional drought in July. The likelihood of convective precipitation in May 2017 in northeastern Montana, however, resembled that of a typical August when rain is unlikely. Based on the lower tropospheric humidity index (HIlow), convective rain was suppressed by the atmosphere on nearly 50 % of days during March in NE Montana and central North Dakota, compared to 30 % during a normal year. Micrometeorological variables, including potential evapotranspiration (ETp), were neither anomalously high nor low before the onset of drought. Incorporating convective likelihood to drought forecasts would have noted that convective precipitation in the NGP was anomalously unlikely during the early growing season of 2017. It may therefore be useful to do so in regions that rely on convective precipitation.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-02-11
    Description: The addition of moisture observations via the Water Vapor Sensing System (WVSS) from about 150 aircraft available operationally through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) program now provides highly reliable thermodynamic profiles of the troposphere. The nearly 900 profiles available daily provide greater temporal and spatial density than the operational radiosonde network over many parts of the U.S. Previous studies comparing WVSS reports with specially co-located radiosondes have documented the quality and consistency of the WVSS observations. These studies, however, have been limited for short periods at a single location. This study expands on the earlier evaluations by using operational U.S. radiosondes from 2015 in a variety of locations, seasons, and climates. Comparison profiles at radiosonde sites were calculated in pressure layers and then interpolated to terrain-following sigma coordinates to account for the differences in elevations of comparison sites and provide a better means of integrating the higher vertical resolution of AMDAR observations taken in the boundary layer. Overall, systematic differences between the WVSS and radiosondes are smallest just above the surface, with the WVSS observations being slightly moister than the radiosondes aloft, with WVSS reports being moister during ascent than descent - possibly the result of small hysteresis effects. Standard deviations averaged 1.3 g kg-1 near the surface over the year-long period. Differences varied by season and region. Overall, the results indicate that WVSS observations are compatible with radiosonde reports and can be used with high confidence to fill temporal and spatial data gaps.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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