ALBERT

Description: This report documents the results of the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) investigation of inconsistencies between pilot reported cloud top heights and weather radar indicated echo top heights (assumed to be cloud tops) as identified by the 45 Weather Squadron (45WS). The objective for this study is to document and understand the differences in echo top characteristics as displayed on both the WSR-88D and WSR-74C radars and cloud top heights reported by the contract weather aircraft in support of space launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), Florida. These inconsistencies are of operational concern since various Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) and Flight Rules (FR) in part describe safe and unsafe conditions as a function of cloud thickness. Some background radar information was presented. Scan strategies for the WSR-74C and WSR-88D were reviewed along with a description of normal radar beam propagation influenced by the Effective Earth Radius Model. Atmospheric conditions prior to and leading up to both launch operations were detailed. Through the analysis of rawinsonde and radar data, atmospheric refraction or bending of the radar beam was identified as the cause of the discrepancies between reported cloud top heights by the contract weather aircraft and those as identified by both radars. The atmospheric refraction caused the radar beam to be further bent toward the Earth than normal. This radar beam bending causes the radar target to be displayed erroneously, with higher cloud top heights and a very blocky or skewed appearance.

Description: The emergency response dose assessment system (ERDAS) is a protype software and hardware system configured to produce routine mesoscale meteorological forecasts and enhanced dispersion estimates on an operational basis for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) region. ERDAS provides emergency response guidance to operations at KSC/CCAS in the case of an accidental hazardous material release or an aborted vehicle launch. This report describes the evaluation of ERDAS including: evaluation of sea breeze predictions, comparison of launch plume location and concentration predictions, case study of a toxic release, evaluation of model sensitivity to varying input parameters, evaluation of the user interface, assessment of ERDA's operational capabilities, and a comparison of ERDAS models to the ocean breeze dry gultch diffusion model.

Description: Space Shuttle landings at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) are of special concern to NASA's landing community because of Florida's rapidly changing weather conditions. Since a large number of Shuttle landing attempts occur in the morning hours (just after sunrise) fog and stratus development are a problem. The deorbit burn decision for a landing at KSC is typically made 90 minutes before Shuttle touchdown. In that 90 minutes weather conditions can change very rapidly. Fog to the west of KSC an advect in and reduce visibility to less than 7 miles. The most important difference between Shuttle and normal aircraft landings is that the Shuttle has no go-around capability requiring a forecast with little room for error. To help guard against rapidly changing weather conditions, flight rules have been developed as guidelines for all landings. This paper concerns fog development that would affect less than 7-statue mile visibility rule which is in effect for End-Of-Mission (EOM) Shuttle landings at KSC (Rule 4-64(A)). Data used for this analysis included hourly surface observations at the X68 Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) and upper-air observations form the CCAFS (Cape Canaveral Air Force Station-72794) rawinsonde site for the five year period, 1986 to 1990. This investigation focused on rapidly developing fog or stratus that developed between decision time and landing.

Description: This report documents the results of the Applied Meteorology Unit's NEXRAD Exploitation Task. The objectives of this task are to determine what radar signatures are present prior to and at the time of convection initiation, and to determine radar signatures which will help distinguish whether the ensuing convection will become severe. Radar data from the WSR-88D radar located at NWS Melbourne (WSR-88D/KMLB) were collected between June and September 1995, and 16 convective case studies were analyzed for which the radar was operating during the entire period of interest. All WSR-88D/KMLB products were scrutinized for their utility in detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures. Through process of elimination, it was found that the 0.5 deg reflectivity product with the lowest reflectivity values displayed is the best product to monitor for convection initiation signatures. Seven meteorological features associated with the initiation of deep convection were identified: the Merritt Island and Indian River convergence zones, interlake convergence, horizontal convective rolls, the sea breeze, storm outflow boundaries, and fires. Their reflectivity values ranged from -5 to 20 dBZ. Of the three severe weather phenomena (winds greater than or equal to 50 kts, tornado, 3/4 inch hail), high wind events due to microbursts were most common in the data set. It was found that the values and trends of composite reflectivity, vertically integrated liquid, and core aspect ratio were key indicators of the potential of a cell to produce a microburst. The data were not analyzed for the other two severe weather phenomena because they rarely occurred during the data collection period. This report also includes suggestions for new WSR-88D products, summaries of ongoing research aimed at creating new products, and explicit recommended procedures for detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures in the radar data using the currently available technology.

Description: The purpose of this report is to document the Applied Meteorology Unit's implementation and evaluation of the wind algorithm developed by Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) on the data analysis processor (DAP) of NASA's 50 MHz doppler radar wind profiler (DRWP). The report also includes a summary of the 50 MHz DRWP characteristics and performance and a proposed concept of operations for the DRWP.

Description: This report documents fog precursors and fog climatology at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Florida from 1986 to 1990. The major emphasis of this report focuses on rapidly developing fog events that would affect the less than 7-statute mile visibility rule for End-Of-Mission (EOM) Shuttle landing at KSC (Rule 4-64(A)). The Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU's) work is to: develop a data base for study of fog associated weather conditions relating to violations of this landing constraint; develop forecast techniques or rules-of-thumb to determine whether or not current conditions are likely to result in an acceptable condition at landing; validate the forecast techniques; and transition techniques to operational use. As part of the analysis the fog events were categorized as either advection, pre-frontal or radiation. As a result of these analyses, the AMU developed a fog climatological data base, identified fog precursors and developed forecaster tools and decision trees. The fog climatological analysis indicates that during the fog season (October to April) there is a higher risk for a visibility violation at KSC during the early morning hours (0700 to 1200 UTC), while 95 percent of all fog events have dissipated by 1600 UTC. A high number of fog events are characterized by a westerly component to the surface wind at KSC (92 percent) and 83 percent of the fog events had fog develop west of KSC first (up to 2 hours). The AMU developed fog decision trees and forecaster tools that would help the forecaster identify fog precursors up to 12 hours in advance. Using the decision trees as process tools ensures the important meteorological data are not overlooked in the forecast process. With these tools and a better understanding of fog formation in the local KSC area, the Shuttle weather support forecaster should be able to give the Launch and Flight Directors a better KSC fog forecast with more confidence.

Description: Weather conditions are documented prior to and during the STS-48 attempted landing at the Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC on 18 Sep. 1991. Trends in meteorological data during 17 and 18 Sep. are examined along with their relationship to the overall weather pattern observed over the KSC region. The primary weather problems during the landing were the formation of showers within 10 nautical miles of the SLF and any ceiling less than 10,000 ft. The controlling factor of the weather was a high pressure ridge that was gradually weakening and moving off the northeast. As this occurred, the low level flow was switching from a easterly to a southeasterly direction. This change in wind direction was reflected by shower movement on the McGill radar and by trends in rawinsondes launched from the Cape. These rawinsondes also indicated that the boundary layers was becoming slightly more unstable several hours prior to the attempted landing which may have aided in the development of clouds and small isolated showers. Also, analyses of Doppler wind profiler and rawinsondes indicated a possible midlevel disturbance in the easterly flow pattern near 700 mb. This weak disturbance may have made the atmosphere a little more unstable early on 18 Sep. Finally, embedded within the southeasterly flow were several bands of low clouds. These clouds were rather difficult to see in unenhanced IR satellite imagery available to forecasters in real time. However, post analyses using several different enhancement curves, adapted from NESDIS, clearly reveals the presence of these clouds.

Description: Responding to incidents involving the release of harmful airborne pollutants is a continual challenge for Weather Forecast Offices in the National Weather Service. When such incidents occur, current protocol recommends forecaster-initiated requests of NOAA's Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model output through the National Centers of Environmental Prediction to obtain critical dispersion guidance. Individual requests are submitted manually through a secured web site, with desired multiple requests submitted in sequence, for the purpose of obtaining useful trajectory and concentration forecasts associated with the significant release of harmful chemical gases, radiation, wildfire smoke, etc., into local the atmosphere. To help manage the local HYSPLIT for both routine and emergency use, a graphical user interface was designed for operational efficiency. The interface allows forecasters to quickly determine the current HYSPLIT configuration for the list of predefined sites (e.g., fixed sites and floating sites), and to make any necessary adjustments to key parameters such as Input Model. Number of Forecast Hours, etc. When using the interface, forecasters will obtain desired output more confidently and without the danger of corrupting essential configuration files.