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Note: Contents: TITLE PAGE -- COPYRIGHT PAGE -- CONTENTS -- CONTRIBUTORS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART I FORCINGS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 1 THE CHANGING EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.2. CHANGES IN ENSO PROPERTIES -- 1.3. CHANGES IN ENSO DYNAMICS -- 1.4. CHANGES IN ENSO TELECONNECTIONS AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.5. ENSO IN THE FUTURE -- 1.6. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 2 WEATHER EXTREMES LINKED TO INTERACTION OF THE ARCTIC AND MIDLATITUDES -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. ARCTIC EFFECTS ON MIDLATITUDE EXTREMES -- 2.3. MIDLATITUDE EFFECTS ON ARCTIC EXTREMES -- 2.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 3 IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON REGIONAL CHANGES IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON CLOUDS AND RADIATION -- 3.3. AEROSOL IMPACT ON REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE -- 3.4. Mitigation scenarios for aerosol emissions -- 3.5. AEROSOL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES -- 3.6. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 4 WEAKENED FLOW, PERSISTENT CIRCULATION, AND PROLONGED WEATHER EXTREMES IN BOREAL SUMMER -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. RESONANT CIRCULATION REGIMES -- 4.3. REAL EVENTS -- 4.4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 5 LAND PROCESSES AS THE FORCING OF EXTREMES: A REVIEW -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION -- 5.2. FORCINGS OF LAND PROCESSES ON CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 5.3. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART II PROCESSES OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 6 TIMING OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMERGENCE IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. DEFINING TIME OF EMERGENCE -- 6.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 6.4. RESULTS -- 6.5. DISCUSSION -- 6.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES CHAPTER 7 RECENT INCREASES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCE OVER LAND -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- 7.3. RESULTS -- 7.4. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 8 WHY FUTURE SHIFTS IN TROPICAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SMALL: THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL RAIN BELT AND THE HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ENERGY INPUT TO THE ATMOSPHERE -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ITCZ POSITION AND HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ATMOSPHERIC HEATING -- 8.3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL CYCLE OF ITCZ MIGRATION AND THE ANNUAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION -- 8.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE ITCZ SHIFTS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 9 WEATHER-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS AND MJO INFLUENCES -- 9.1. INTRODUCTION -- 9.2. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, BACKGROUND STATE, AND SYNOPTIC WEATHER -- 9.3. A CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND EL NIÑO -- 9.4. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO AND BREAKING WAVES -- 9.5. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION -- 9.6. SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 10 RECENT CLIMATE EXTREMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST PACIFIC WARMING MODE -- 10.1. INTRODUCTION -- 10.2. BACKGROUND -- 10.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 10.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 11 CONNECTIONS BETWEEN HEAT WAVES AND CIRCUMGLOBAL TELECONNECTION PATTERNS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. DATA AND METHODS -- 11.3. DISTRIBUTION OF HEAT WAVES -- 11.4. PLANETARY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAT WAVES -- 11.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART III REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 12 NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT AND LINKS TO NORTHERN EURASIA: THE ROLE OF STATIONARY ROSSBY WAVES -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. REANALYSIS DATA AND THE GEOS-5 AGCM EXPERIMENTS -- 12.3. RESULTS -- 12.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 13 THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT: TRENDS AND IMPACTS -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. THE PROLONGED DROUGHT OF 2012-2016 -- 13.3. ROLE OF ENSO CYCLE -- 13.4. ARCTIC INFLUENCES -- 13.5. DROUGHT IMPACTS ON CALIFORNIA -- 13.6. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 14 OBSERVED TRENDS IN US TORNADO FREQUENCY -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. STORM DATA TORNADO DATABASE -- 14.3. US TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY -- 14.4. CHANGES IN US TORNADO STATISTICS -- 14.5. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 15 MECHANISMS EXPLAINING RECENT CHANGES IN AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL EXTREMES OF 2010-2012 -- 15.3. AUSTRALIA'S TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OF 2013 -- 15.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 16 UNRAVELING EAST AFRICA'S CLIMATE PARADOX -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. THE NATURE OF THE RECENT EAST AFRICAN LONG RAINS DECLINE -- 16.3. LINKS TO PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY -- 16.4. PHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS -- 16.5. CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE -- 16.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 17 A PHYSICAL MODEL FOR EXTREME DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. PRECIPITATION PATTERNS -- 17.3. SST RELATIONSHIPS -- 17.4. ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS -- 17.5. SUMMARY -- APPENDIX: DATA -- REFERENCES -- PART IV PREDICTION OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 18 EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS OF THE EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. OVERVIEW OF PRECURSORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ENSO -- 18.3. DATA AND DEFINITIONS -- 18.4. EVALUATION OF PRECURSOR VARIABILITY AND COVARIABILITY -- 18.5. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECURSORS AND ENSO -- 18.6. DIAGNOSING PRECURSORS AS ENSO PREDICTORS -- 18.7. RELATIONSHIP OF EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS TO 2014 AND 2015 EL NIñO -- 18.8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 19 NORTH ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION: UNDERLYING SCIENCE AND AN EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2. STATISTICALLY BASED SEASONAL HURRICANE OUTLOOK MODELS -- 19.3. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 20 PREDICTING SUBSEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIATIONS BASED ON THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. THE MJO INFLUENCE ON THE VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.3. FORECASTING THE MJO -- 20.4. THE MJO AND PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 21 PREDICTION OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE EXTREMES WITH A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION -- 21.2. PREDICTION SKILL -- 21.3. PREDICTABILITY -- 21.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 22 TOWARD PREDICTING US TORNADOES IN THE LATE 21ST CENTURY -- 22.1. PROJECTING CHANGES IN US TORNADO ACTIVITY USING ENVIRONMENTAL PROXIES -- 22.2. SHORT-TERM TORNADO PREDICTION USING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND APPLICATIONS TO DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING -- 22.3. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- INDEX