ISSN:
1613-9658
Keywords:
Keywords: Bayesian Inference, Multiple Comparisons, Type 1 Error, Type M Error, Type S Error
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Mathematics
Notes:
Summary In classical statistics, the significance of comparisons (e. g., θ1–θ2) is calibrated using the Type 1 error rate, relying on the assuption that the true difference is zero, which makes no sense in many applications. We set up a more relevant framework in which a true comparison can be positive or negative, and, based on the data, you can state “θ1 〉 θ2 with confidence,”“θ2 〉 θ1 with confidence,” or “no claim with confidence.” We focus on the Type S (for sign) error, which occurs when you claim “θ1 〉 θ2 with confidence” when θ2 〉 θ1 (or vice-versa). We compute the Type S error rates for classical and Bayesian confidence statements and find that classical Type S error rates can be extremely high (up to 50%). Bayesian confidence statements are conservative in the sense that claims based on 95% posterior intervals have Type S error rates between 0 and 2.5%. For multiple comparison situations, the conclusions are similar.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001800000040
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