ALBERT

Description: The flux of cosmic rays to the atmosphere has been reported to correlate with cloud and aerosol properties. One proposed mechanism for these correlations is the "ion-aerosol clear-air" mechanism where the cosmic rays modulate atmospheric ion concentrations, ion-induced nucleation of aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. We use a global chemical transport model with online aerosol microphysics to explore the dependence of CCN concentrations on the cosmic-ray flux. Expanding upon previous work, we test the sensitivity of the cosmic-ray/CCN connection to several uncertain parameters in the model including primary emissions, Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) condensation and charge-enhanced condensational growth. The sensitivity of CCN to cosmic rays increases when simulations are run with decreased primary emissions, but show location-dependent behavior from increased amounts of secondary organic aerosol and charge-enhanced growth. For all test cases, the change in the concentration of particles larger than 80 nm between solar minimum (high cosmic ray flux) and solar maximum (low cosmic ray flux) simulations is less than 0.2 %. The change in the total number of particles larger than 10 nm was larger, but always less than 1 %. The simulated change in the column-integrated Ångström exponent was negligible for all test cases. Additionally, we test the predicted aerosol sensitivity to week-long Forbush decreases of cosmic rays and find that the maximum change in aerosol properties for these cases is similar to steady-state aerosol differences between the solar maximum and solar minimum. These results provide evidence that the effect of cosmic rays on CCN and clouds through the ion-aerosol clear-sky mechanism is limited by dampening from aerosol processes.

Description: We use a nested version of the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemistry transport model to better understand the composition and variation of aerosol over Borneo and the broader Southeast Asian region in conjunction with aircraft and satellite observations. Our focus on Southeast Asia reflects the importance of this region as a source of reactive organic gases and aerosols from natural forests, biomass burning, and food and fuel crops. We particularly focus on July 2008 when the UK BAe-146 research aircraft was deployed over northern Malaysian Borneo as part of the ACES/OP3 measurement campaign. During July 2008 we find using the model that Borneo (defined as Borneo Island and the surrounding Indonesian islands) was a net exporter of primary organic aerosol (42 kT) and black carbon aerosol (11 kT). We find only 13% of volatile organic compound oxidation products partition to secondary organic aerosol (SOA), with Borneo being a net exporter of SOA (15 kT). SOA represents approximately 19% of the total organic aerosol over the region. Sulphate is mainly from aqueous-phase oxidation (68%), with smaller contributions from gas-phase oxidation (15%) and advection into the regions (14%). We find that there is a large source of sea salt, as expected, but this largely deposits within the region; we find that dust aerosol plays only a relatively small role in the aerosol burden. In contrast to coincident surface measurements over Northern Borneo that find a pristine environment with evidence for substantial biogenic SOA formation we find that the free troposphere is influenced by biomass burning aerosol transported from the northwest of the Island and further afield. We find several transport events during July 2008 over Borneo associated with elevated aerosol concentrations, none of which coincide with the aircraft flights. We use MODIS aerosol optical depths (AOD) data and the model to put the July campaign into a longer temporal perspective. We find that Borneo is where the model has the least skill at reproducing the data, where the model has a negative bias of 76% and only captures 14% of the observed variability. This model performance reflects the small-scale island-marine environment and the mix of aerosol species, with the model showing more skill at reproducing observed AOD over larger continental regions such as China where AOD is dominated by one aerosol type. The model shows that AOD over Borneo is approximately evenly split between organic and sulphate aerosol with sea salt representing 10–20% during May–September; we find a similar breakdown over continental Southeast Asia but with less sea salt aerosol and more dust aerosol. In contrast, East China AOD is determined mainly by sulphate aerosol and a seasonal source of dust aerosol, as expected. Realistic sensitivity runs, designed to test our underlying assumptions about emissions and chemistry over Borneo, show that model AOD is most sensitive to isoprene emissions and organic gas-phase partitioning but all fail to improve significantly upon the control model calculation. This emphasises the multi-faceted dimension of the problem and the need for concurrent and coordinated development of BVOC emissions, and BVOC chemistry and organic aerosol formation mechanisms.

Description: We implement the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics module into GEOS-CHEM, a CTM driven by assimilated meteorology. TOMAS has 30 size sections covering 0.01–10 μm diameter with conservation equations for both aerosol mass and number. The implementation enables GEOS-CHEM to simulate aerosol microphysics, size distributions, mass and number concentrations. The model system is developed for sulfate and sea-salt aerosols, a year-long simulation has been performed, and results are compared to observations. Additionally model intercomparison was carried out involving global models with sectional microphysics: GISS GCM-II' and GLOMAP. Comparison with marine boundary layer observations of CN10 and CCN(0.2%) shows that all models perform well with average errors of 30–50%. However, all models underpredict CN10 by up to 42% between 15° S and 45° S while overpredicting CN10 up to 52% between 45° N and 60° N, which could be due to the sea-salt emission parameterization and the assumed size distribution of primary sulfate emission, in each case respectively. Model intercomparison at the surface shows that GISS GCM-II' and GLOMAP, each compared against GEOS-CHEM, both predict 40% higher CN10 and predict 20% and 30% higher CCN(0.2%) on average, respectively. Major discrepancies are due to different emission inventories and transport. Budget comparison shows GEOS-CHEM predicts the lowest global CCN(0.2%) due to microphysical growth being a factor of 2 lower than other models because of lower SO2 availability. These findings stress the need for accurate meteorological inputs, updated emission inventories, and realistic clouds and oxidant fields when evaluating global aerosol microphysics models.

Description: Aerosol nucleation occurs frequently in the atmosphere and is an important source of particle number. Observations suggest that nucleated particles are capable of growing to sufficiently large sizes that they act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), but some global models have reported that CCN concentrations are only modestly sensitive to large changes in nucleation rates. Here we present a novel approach for using long-term size distribution observations to evaluate a global aerosol model's ability to predict formation rates of CCN from nucleation and growth events. We derive from observations at five locations nucleation-relevant metrics such as nucleation rate of particles at diameter of 3 nm (J3), diameter growth rate (GR), particle survival probability (SP), condensation and coagulation sinks, and CCN formation rate (J100). These quantities are also derived for a global microphysical model, GEOS-Chem-TOMAS, and compared to the observations on a daily basis. Using GEOS-Chem-TOMAS, we simulate nucleation events predicted by ternary (with a 10−5 tuning factor) or activation nucleation over one year and find that the model slightly understates the observed annual-average CCN formation mostly due to bias in the nucleation rate predictions, but by no more than 50% in the ternary simulations. At the two locations expected to be most impacted by large-scale regional nucleation, Hyytiälä and San Pietro Capofiume, predicted annual-average CCN formation rates are within 34 and 2% of the observations, respectively. Model-predicted annual-average growth rates are within 25% across all sites but also show a slight tendency to underestimate the observations, at least in the ternary nucleation simulations. On days that the growing nucleation mode reaches 100 nm, median single-day survival probabilities to 100 nm for the model and measurements range from less than 1–6% across the five locations we considered; however, this does not include particles that may eventually grow to 100 nm after the first day. This detailed exploration of new particle formation and growth dynamics adds support to the use of global models as tools for assessing the contribution of microphysical processes such as nucleation to the total number and CCN budget.

Description: The flux of cosmic rays to the atmosphere has been observed to correlate with cloud and aerosol properties. One proposed mechanism for these correlations is the "ion-aerosol clear-air" mechanism where the cosmic rays modulate atmospheric ion concentrations, ion-induced nucleation of aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. We use a global chemical transport model with online aerosol microphysics to explore the dependence of CCN concentrations on the cosmic-ray flux. Expanding upon previous work, we test the sensitivity of the cosmic-ray/CCN connection to several uncertain parameters in the model including primary emissions, Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) condensation and charge-enhanced condensational growth. The sensitivity of CCN to cosmic rays increases when simulations are run with decreased primary emissions, but show location-dependent behavior from increased amounts of secondary organic aerosol and charge-enhanced growth. For all test cases, the change in the concentration of particles larger than 80 nm between solar minimum (high cosmic ray flux) and solar maximum (low cosmic ray flux) simulations is less than 0.2%. The change in the total number of particles larger than 10 nm was larger, but always less than 1%. The simulated change in the column-integrated Ångström exponent was negligible for all test cases. Additionally, we test the predicted aerosol sensitivity to week-long Forbush decreases of cosmic rays and find that the maximum change in aerosol properties for these cases is similar to steady-state aerosol differences between the solar maximum and solar minimum. These results provide evidence that the effect of cosmic rays on CCN and clouds through the ion-aerosol clear-sky mechanism is limited by dampening from aerosol processes.

Description: We use a nested version of the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemistry transport model to better understand the composition and variation of aerosol over Borneo and the broader Southeast Asian region in conjunction with aircraft and satellite observations. We particularly focus on July 2008 during when the UK BAe-146 research aircraft was deployed over northern Malaysian Borneo as part of the ACES/OP3 measurement campaign. During July 2008 we find using the model that Borneo (defined as Borneo Island and the surrounding Indonesian islands) was a net exporter of primary organic aerosol (42 kT) and black carbon aerosol (11 kT). We find only 13 % of volatile organic compound oxidation products partition to secondary organic aerosol (SOA), with Borneo being a net exporter of SOA (15 kT). SOA represents approximately 19 % of the total organic aerosol over the region. Sulphate is mainly from aqueous-phase oxidation (68 %), with smaller contributions from gas-phase oxidation (15 %) and advection into the regions (14 %). We find that there is a large source of sea salt, as expected, but this largely deposits within the region; we find that dust aerosol plays only a relatively small role in the aerosol burden. In contrast to coincident surface measurements over Northern Borneo that find a pristine environment with evidence for substantial biogenic SOA formation we find that the free troposphere is influenced by biomass burning aerosol transported from the northwest of the Island and further afield. We find several transport events during July 2008 over Borneo associated with elevated aerosol concentrations, none of which coincide with the aircraft flights. We use MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data and the model to put the July campaign into a longer temporal perspective. We find that Borneo is where the model has the least skill at reproducing the data, reflecting the small-scale island-marine environment, with the model showing more skill at reproducing observed AOD over larger regions such as China and other parts of Southeast Asia. The model shows that AOD over Borneo is approximately evenly split between organic and sulphate aerosol with sea salt representing 10–20 % during May to September; there is a similar breakdown over continental Southeast Asia but with less sea salt aerosol and more dust aerosol. In contrast, East China AOD is determined mainly by sulphate aerosol and a seasonal source of dust aerosol, as expected. Realistic sensitivity runs designed to test our underlying assumptions about emissions and chemistry over Borneo constrained by MODIS AOD show that the model is most sensitive to isoprene emissions and organic gas-phase partitioning.

Description: Aerosol nucleation occurs frequently in the atmosphere and is an important source of particle number. Observations suggest that nucleated particles are capable of growing to sufficiently large sizes that they act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), but some global models have reported that CCN concentrations are only modestly sensitive to large changes in nucleation rates. Here we present a novel approach for using long-term size distribution observations to evaluate the contribution of nucleation and growth to the tropospheric CCN budget. We derive from observations at five locations nucleation-relevant metrics such as nucleation rate of particles at diameter of 3 nm (J3), diameter growth rate (GR), particle survival probability (SP), condensation and coagulation sinks, and CCN formation rate. These quantities are also derived for a global microphysical model and compared to the observations on a daily basis to evaluate the model's CCN budget. Using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS global aerosol model we simulate nucleation events predicted by ternary (with a 10−5 tuning factor) or activation nucleation over one year and find that the model does not understate the contribution of boundary layer nucleation to CCN concentrations. Model-predicted annual-average formation rates of 50 nm and 100 nm particles due to nucleation are always within 50% and show a slight tendency to over-estimate the observations. Because it is rare for observations to track the growth of a nucleation mode across several days, it is difficult to assess CCN formation when growth requires multiple days. To address multi-day growth, we present three cases of survival of particles beyond one day: single-day growth, partial multi-day survival, and total multi-day survival. For the single-day growth case, only particles that reach a CCN size (50 or 100 nm) on the same day are counted as contributing to the CCN budget, which represents a low estimate of CCN attributable to nucleation. The partial survival case extrapolates the coagulation sink and growth rate allowing nucleated particles as much time as needed to become CCN and represents a realistic, but perhaps somewhat high, estimate for CCN formation from nucleation. The total survival case assumes that all particles that survive the first day, no matter their end-of-day size, will eventually become CCN and represents a high estimate of CCN formation from nucleation. On days that the growing nucleation mode reaches 100 nm, median single-day survival probabilities to 100 nm for the model and measurements range from less than 1% to 9% across the five locations we considered. At the upper end, total survival median survival probabilities to 100 nm are no greater than 36% and the partial survival case survival probabilities are 5 to 25%, depending on the site. Using growth rates, nucleation rates, coagulation rates, survival probabilities, and an assumed CCN lifetime, we calculate that annually averaged CN100 concentrations (a proxy for CCN) formed from single-day nucleation and growth events does not exceed 50 cm−3 in both the model and the measurements across the five locations, representing no more than 3% of total CN100. When we extrapolate growth and loss to include growth to CCN beyond the first day (partial survival case), we find that both the model and measurements show a higher but still modest contribution (up to 14%) to total CN100. This detailed exploration of new particle formation and growth dynamics adds support to the use of global models as tools for assessing the contribution of microphysical processes such as nucleation to the total number and CCN budget.

Description: Aerosol nucleation occurs frequently in the atmosphere and is an important source of particle number. Observations suggest that nucleated particles are capable of growing to sufficiently large sizes that they act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), but some global models have reported that CCN concentrations are only modestly sensitive to large changes in nucleation rates. Here we present a novel approach for using long-term size distribution observations to evaluate a global aerosol model's ability to predict formation rates of CCN from nucleation and growth events. We derive from observations at five locations nucleation-relevant metrics such as nucleation rate of particles at diameter of 3 nm (J3), diameter growth rate (GR), particle survival probability (SP), condensation and coagulation sinks, and CCN formation rate (J100). These quantities are also derived for a global microphysical model, GEOS-Chem-TOMAS, and compared to the observations on a daily basis. Using GEOS-Chem-TOMAS, we simulate nucleation events predicted by ternary (with a 10−5 tuning factor) or activation nucleation over one year and find that the model slightly understates the observed annual-average CCN formation, but by no more than 50% in the ternary simulations. At the two locations expected to be most impacted by large-scale regional nucleation, Hyytiälä and San Pietro Capofiume, predicted annual-average CCN formation rates are within 34% and 2% of the observations, respectively. Model-predicted annual-average growth rates are within 25% across all sites but also show a slight tendency to underestimate the observations, at least in the ternary nucleation simulations. On days that the growing nucleation mode reaches 100 nm, median single-day survival probabilities to 100 nm for the model and measurements range from less than 1% to 6% across the five locations we considered; however, this does not include particles that may eventually grow to 100 nm after the first day. This detailed exploration of new particle formation and growth dynamics adds support to the use of global models as tools for assessing the contribution of microphysical processes such as nucleation to the total number and CCN budget.

Description: A model of carbonaceous aerosols has been implemented into the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics module in the GEOS-Chem CTM, a model driven by assimilated meteorology. Inclusion of carbonaceous emissions alongside pre-existing treatments of sulfate and sea-salt aerosols increases the number of emitted primary aerosol particles by a factor of 2.5 and raises annual-average global CCN(0.2%) concentrations by a factor of two. Compared to the prior model without carbonaceous aerosols, this development improves the model prediction of CN10 number concentrations significantly from −45 to −7% bias when compared to long-term observations. However, similar to other OC/EC models, the model underpredicts OC and EC mass concentrations by a factor of 2–5 when compared to EMEP observations. Because primary OA and secondary OA affect aerosol number size distributions differently, we assess the sensitivity of CCN production, for a fixed source of OA mass, to the assumed POA-SOA split in the model. For a fixed OA budget, we found that CCN(0.2%) decreases nearly everywhere as the model changes from a world dominated by POA emissions to one dominated by SOA condensation. POA is about twice as effective per unit mass at CCN production compared to SOA. Changing from a 100% POA scenario to a 100% SOA scenario, CCN(0.2%) concentrations in the lowest model layer decrease by about 20%. In any scenario, carbonaceous aerosols contribute significantly to global CCN. The SOA-POA split has a significant effect on global CCN and the microphysical implications of POA emissions versus SOA condensation appear to be at least as important as differences in chemical composition as expressed by the hygroscopicity of OA. These findings stress the need to better understand carbonaceous aerosols loadings, the global SOA budget, microphysical pathways of OA formation (emissions versus condensation) as well as chemical composition to improve climate modeling.

Description: We implement the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics module into GEOS-CHEM, a CTM driven by assimilated meteorology. TOMAS has 30 size sections covering 0.01–10 μm diameter with conservation equations for both aerosol mass and number. The implementation enables GEOS-CHEM to simulate aerosol microphysics, size distributions, mass and number concentrations. The model system is developed for sulfate and sea-salt aerosols, a year-long simulation has been performed, and results are compared to observations. Additionally model intercomparison was carried out involving global models with sectional microphysics: GISS GCM-II' and GLOMAP. Comparison with marine boundary layer observations of CN and CCN(0.2%) shows that all models perform well with average errors of 30–50%. However, all models underpredict CN by up to 42% between 15° S and 45° S while overpredicting CN up to 52% between 45° N and 60° N, which could be due to the sea-salt emission parameterization and the assumed size distribution of primary sulfate emission, in each case respectively. Model intercomparison at the surface shows that GISS GCM-II' and GLOMAP, each compared against GEOS-CHEM, both predict 40% higher CN and predict 20% and 30% higher CCN(0.2%) on average, respectively. Major discrepancies are due to different emission inventories and transport. Budget comparison shows GEOS-CHEM predicts the lowest global CCN(0.2%) due to microphysical growth being a factor of 2 lower than other models because of lower SO2 availability. These findings stress the need for accurate meteorological inputs and updated emission inventories when evaluating global aerosol microphysics models.