ALBERT

Description: The capability of all-sky microwave radiance assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This development effort required the adaptation of quality control, observation error assignment, bias correction, and background error covariance to all-sky conditions within the ensemble–variational (EnVar) framework. The assimilation of cloudy radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) microwave radiometer for ocean fields of view (FOVs) is the primary emphasis of this study. In the original operational hybrid 3D EnVar Global Forecast System (GFS), the clear-sky approach for radiance data assimilation is applied. Changes to data thinning and quality control have allowed all-sky satellite radiances to be assimilated in the GSI. Along with the symmetric observation error assignment, additional situation-dependent observation error inflation is employed for all-sky conditions. Moreover, in addition to the current radiance bias correction, a new bias correction strategy has been applied to all-sky radiances. In this work, the static background error variance and the ensemble spread of cloud water are examined, and the levels of cloud variability from the ensemble forecast in single- and dual-resolution configurations are discussed. Overall, the all-sky approach provides more realistic simulated brightness temperatures and cloud water analysis increments, and improves analysis off the west coasts of the continents by reducing a known bias in stratus. An approximate 10% increase in the use of AMSU-A channels 1–5 and a 12% increase for channel 15 are also observed. The all-sky AMSU-A radiance assimilation became operational in the 4D EnVar GFS system upgrade of 12 May 2016.

Description: Extended-length observing system experiments (OSEs) during two seasons are used to quantify the contributions made to forecast quality by conventional rawinsonde data and four types of remotely sensed satellite data. The impact is measured by comparing the analysis and forecast results from an assimilation–forecast system using all data types with those excluding a particular observing system. The impact of the particular observing system is assessed by comparing the forecast results over extended periods. For these observing system experiments, forecast results are compared through 168 h for periods covering more than a month during both the summer and winter seasons of each hemisphere. The assimilation–forecast system used for these experiments is the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and the Global Forecast System (GFS). The case studies chosen consist of periods during January–February 2003 and August–September 2003. During these periods, a T254L64 layer version of NCEP’s global spectral model was used. The control run utilized all data types routinely assimilated in the GDAS. The experimental runs individually denied data from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), geostationary satellite atmospheric motion vectors (GEO winds), in situ rawinsondes (raobs), and surface winds derived from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT). Differences between the control and denial experiment forecasts are accumulated over the two 45-day periods and are analyzed to demonstrate the impact of these data types. Anomaly correlations (ACs), forecast impacts (FIs), and hurricane track forecasts are evaluated for all experimental runs during both seasons. The anomaly correlations used the standard NCEP software suite and are partitioned into subsections covering the polar caps (60°–90°) and midlatitudes (20°–80°) of each hemisphere and the tropical region (20°N–20°S). Anomaly correlations of geopotential heights are shown at several pressure levels in the polar regions and midlatitudes. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for 850- and 200-hPa wind vector differences are shown for the tropical region. The geographical distributions of forecast impacts on geopotential heights are also examined. The influence these data types have on tropical cyclone track forecasts are shown for both the Atlantic and Pacific basins and again are computed using standard algorithms developed and maintained at NCEP. The results demonstrate a positive impact from all data types with AMSU and rawinsonde data providing the largest anomaly correlation improvements in all zonal regions examined. Smaller forecast improvements are noticed from each of the other data types. In the Atlantic basin, each of the four satellite data types provides nearly equal improvement to the tropical cyclone track forecasts; however, GEO winds provide the largest improvement to track forecasts in the Pacific basin.

Description: At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a new three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) analysis system was implemented into the operational Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) on 1 May 2007. The new analysis system, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI), replaced the Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) 3DVAR system, which had been operational since 1991. The GSI was developed at the Environmental Modeling Center at NCEP as part of an effort to create a more unified, robust, and efficient analysis scheme. The key aspect of the GSI is that it formulates the analysis in model grid space, which allows for more flexibility in the application of the background error covariances and makes it straightforward for a single analysis system to be used across a broad range of applications, including both global and regional modeling systems and domains. Due to the constraints of working with an operational system, the final GDAS package included many changes other than just a simple replacing of the SSI with the new GSI. The new GDAS package contained an upgrade to the Global Forecast System model, including a new vertical coordinate, as well as new features in the GSI that were never developed for the SSI. Some of these new features included changes to the observation selection, quality control, minimization algorithm, dynamic balance constraint, and assimilation of new observation types. The evaluation of the new system relative to the SSI-based system was performed for nearly an entire year of analyses and forecasts. The objective and subjective evaluations showed that the new package exhibited superior forecast performance relative to the old SSI-based system. The new system has been shown to improve forecast skill in the tropics and substantially reduce the short-term forecast error in the extratropics. This implementation has laid the groundwork for future scientific advancements in data assimilation at NCEP.

Description: Observing system experiments (OSEs) during two seasons are used to quantify the important contributions made to forecast quality from the use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) polar-orbiting satellites. The impact is measured by comparing the analysis and forecast results from an assimilation–forecast system using one NOAA polar-orbiting satellite with results from using two and three polar-orbiting satellites in complementary orbits. The assimilation–forecast system used for these experiments is the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System–Global Forecast System (GDAS–GFS). The case studies chosen consist of periods during January–February and August–September 2003. Differences between the forecasts are accumulated over the two seasons and are analyzed to demonstrate the impact of these satellites. Anomaly correlations (ACs) and geographical forecasts (FIs) are evaluated for all experimental runs during both seasons. The anomaly correlations are generated using the standard NCEP verification software suite and cover the polar regions (60°–90°) and midlatitudes (20°–80°) of each hemisphere. The rms error for 850- and 200-hPa wind vector differences are shown for the tropical region (20°N–20°S). The geographical distribution of forecast impact on geopotential heights, relative humidity, precipitable water, and the u component of wind are also examined. The results demonstrate that the successive addition of each NOAA polar-orbiting satellite increases forecast quality. The use of three NOAA polar-orbiting satellites generally provides the largest improvement to the anomaly correlation scores in the polar and midlatitude regions. Improvements to the anomaly correlation scores are also realized from the use of two NOAA polar-orbiting satellites over only one. The forecast improvements from two satellites are generally smaller than if using three satellites, consistent with the increase in areal coverage obtained with the third satellite.

Description: Observing system experiments are used to quantify the contributions to the forecast made by conventional in situ and remotely sensed satellite data. The impact of each data type is assessed by comparing the analyses and forecasts based on an observing system using all data types. The analysis and forecast model used for these observing system experiments is the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System (GDAS/GFS). The case studies chosen consist of 45-day periods during January–February 2003 and August–September 2003. During these periods, a T254–64 layer version of NCEP’s Global Spectral Model was used. The control run utilizes NCEP’s operational database and consists of all data types routinely assimilated in the GDAS. The two experimental runs have either all the conventional in situ data denied (NoCon) or all the remotely sensed satellite data denied (NoSat). Differences between the control and experimental runs are accumulated over the 45-day periods and analyzed to demonstrate the forecast impact of these data types through 168 h. Anomaly correlations, forecast impacts, and hurricane track forecasts are evaluated for both experiments. Anomaly correlations of geopotential height are evaluated over the polar caps and midlatitudes of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for spectral waves 1–20. Forecast impacts related to conventional meteorological parameters are evaluated. The parameters examined include geopotential height, precipitable water, temperature, the u component of the wind, wind vector differences, and relative humidity. Comparisons are made on multiple pressure levels extending from 10 to 1000 hPa. Hurricane track forecasts are evaluated during August and September for both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. The results demonstrate a positive forecast impact from both the conventional in situ and remotely sensed satellite data during both seasons in both hemispheres. The positive forecast impacts from the conventional and satellite data are of similar magnitude in the Northern Hemisphere; however, the contribution to forecast quality from satellite data is considerably larger than the conventional data in the Southern Hemisphere. The importance of satellite data also generally increases at longer forecast times relative to conventional data. Finally, the accuracy of hurricane track forecasts benefits from the inclusion of both conventional and satellite data.

Description: The impact of radiance observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) was investigated in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). The GDAS used NCEP’s Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system and the operational NCEP global forecast model. To improve the performance of AMSR-E low-frequency channels, a new microwave ocean emissivity model and its adjoint with respect to the surface wind speed and temperature were developed and incorporated into the assimilation system. The most significant impacts of AMSR-E radiances on the analysis were an increase in temperature of about 0.2 K at 850 hPa at the higher latitudes and a decrease in humidity of about 0.1 g kg−1 at 850 hPa over the ocean when the new emissivity model was used. There was no significant difference in the mean 6-h rainfall in the assimilation cycle. The forecasts made from the assimilation that included the AMSR-E data showed small improvements in the anomaly correlation of geopotential height at 1000 and 500 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere and reductions in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) for 500-hPa geopotential height in the extratropics of both hemispheres. Use of the new emissivity model resulted in improved RMSE for temperature forecasts from 1000 to 100 hPa in the extratropics of both hemispheres. The assimilation of AMSR-E radiances data using the emissivity model improved the track forecast for Hurricane Katrina in the 26 August 2005 case, whereas the assimilation using the NCEP operational emissivity model, FAST Emissivity Model, version 1 (FASTEM-1), degraded it.

Description: The gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) analysis system is a unified global/regional three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) analysis code that has been under development for several years at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center. It has recently been implemented into operations at NCEP in both the global and North American data assimilation systems (GDAS and NDAS, respectively). An important aspect of this development has been improving the balance of the analysis produced by GSI. The improved balance between variables has been achieved through the inclusion of a tangent-linear normal-mode constraint (TLNMC). The TLNMC method has proven to be very robust and effective. The TLNMC as part of the global GSI system has resulted in substantial improvement in data assimilation at NCEP.