ALBERT

Description: Candidate human missions to Mars, including NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on conjunction-class missions with long crewed durations and minimum energy trajectories to reduce total propellant requirements and total launch mass. However, in order to progressively reduce risk and gain experience in interplanetary mission operations, it may be desirable that initial human missions to Mars, whether to the surface or to Mars orbit, have shorter total crewed durations and minimal stay times at the destination. Opposition-class missions require larger total energy requirements relative to conjunction-class missions but offer the potential for much shorter mission durations, potentially reducing risk and overall systems performance requirements. This paper will present a detailed comparison of conjunction-class and opposition-class human missions to Mars vicinity with a focus on how such missions could be integrated into the initial phases of a Mars exploration campaign. The paper will present the results of a trade study that integrates trajectory/propellant analysis, element design, logistics and sparing analysis, and risk assessment to produce a comprehensive comparison of opposition and conjunction exploration mission constructs. Included in the trade study is an assessment of the risk to the crew and the trade offs between the mission duration and element, logistics, and spares mass. The analysis of the mission trade space was conducted using four simulation and analysis tools developed by NASA. Trajectory analyses for Mars destination missions were conducted using VISITOR (Versatile ImpulSive Interplanetary Trajectory OptimizeR), an in-house tool developed by NASA Langley Research Center. Architecture elements were evaluated using EXploration Architecture Model for IN-space and Earth-to-orbit (EXAMINE), a parametric modeling tool that generates exploration architectures through an integrated systems model. Logistics analysis was conducted using NASA's Human Exploration Logistics Model (HELM), and sparing allocation predictions were generated via the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT), which is a probabilistic simulation engine that evaluates trades in spacecraft reliability and sparing requirements based on spacecraft system maintainability and reparability.

Description: As the durations and distances involved in human exploration missions increase, the logistics associated with the repair and maintenance becomes more challenging. Whereas the operation of the International Space Station (ISS) depends upon regular resupply from the Earth, this paradigm may not be feasible for future missions. Longer mission durations result in higher probabilities of component failures as well as higher uncertainty regarding which components may fail, and longer distances from Earth increase the cost of resupply as well as the speed at which the crew can abort to Earth in the event of an emergency. As such, mission development efforts must take into account the logistics requirements associated with maintenance and spares. Accurate prediction of the spare parts demand for a given mission plan and how that demand changes as a result of changes to the system architecture enables full consideration of the lifecycle cost associated with different options. In this paper, we utilize a range of analysis techniques - Monte Carlo, semi-Markov, binomial, and heuristic - to examine the relationship between the mass of spares and probability of loss of function related to the Carbon Dioxide Removal System (CRS) for a notional, simplified mission profile. The Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT), developed at NASA Langley Research Center, is utilized for the Monte Carlo analysis. We discuss the implications of these results and the features and drawbacks of each method. In particular, we identify the limitations of heuristic methods for logistics analysis, and the additional insights provided by more in-depth techniques. We discuss the potential impact of system complexity on each technique, as well as their respective abilities to examine dynamic events. This work is the first step in an effort that will quantitatively examine how well these techniques handle increasingly more complex systems by gradually expanding the system boundary.

Description: NASA s long-range goal is focused upon human exploration of Mars. Missions to Mars will require campaigns of multiple launches to assemble Mars Transfer Vehicles in Earth orbit. Launch campaigns are subject to delays, launch vehicles can fail to place their payloads into the required orbit, and spacecraft may fail during the assembly process or while loitering prior to the Trans-Mars Injection (TMI) burn. Additionally, missions to Mars have constrained departure windows lasting approximately sixty days that repeat approximately every two years. Ensuring high reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support the TMI window will be a key enabler to mission success. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing and improving the reliability of the launch and assembly campaign phase. A discrete event simulation involves several pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to TMI. The model accommodates varying numbers of launches, including the potential for spare launches. Having a spare launch capability provides significant improvement to mission success.

Description: NASA's future human space exploration strategy includes single and multi-launch missions to various destinations including cis-lunar space, near Earth objects such as asteroids, and ultimately Mars. Each campaign is being defined by Design Reference Missions (DRMs). Many of these missions are complex, requiring multiple launches and assembly of vehicles in orbit. Certain missions also have constrained departure windows to the destination. These factors raise concerns regarding the reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support planned departure. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing launch and assembly reliability in any single DRM or set of DRMs starting with flight hardware manufacturing and ending with final departure to the destination. A discrete event simulation is built for each DRM that includes the pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; ground transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to trans-destination-injection. Each reliability factor can be selectively activated or deactivated so that the most critical risk factors can be identified. This enables NASA to prioritize mitigation actions so as to improve mission success.

Description: Exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) presents many unique challenges that will require changes from current Supportability approaches. Currently, the International Space Station (ISS) is supported and maintained through a series of preplanned resupply flights, on which spare parts, including some large, heavy Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs), are delivered to the ISS. The Space Shuttle system provided for a robust capability to return failed components to Earth for detailed examination and potential repair. Additionally, as components fail and spares are not already on-orbit, there is flexibility in the transportation system to deliver those required replacement parts to ISS on a near term basis. A similar concept of operation will not be feasible for beyond LEO exploration. The mass and volume constraints of the transportation system and long envisioned mission durations could make it difficult to manifest necessary spares. The supply of on-demand spare parts for missions beyond LEO will be very limited or even non-existent. In addition, the remote nature of the mission, the design of the spacecraft, and the limitations on crew capabilities will all make it more difficult to maintain the spacecraft. Alternate concepts of operation must be explored in which required spare parts, materials, and tools are made available to make repairs; the locations of the failures are accessible; and the information needed to conduct repairs is available to the crew. In this paper, ISS heritage information is presented along with a summary of the challenges of beyond LEO missions. A number of Supportability issues are discussed in relation to human exploration beyond LEO. In addition, the impacts of various Supportability strategies will be discussed. Any measure that can be incorporated to reduce risk and improve mission success should be evaluated to understand the advantages and disadvantages of implementing those measures. Finally, an effort to model and evaluate Supportability for beyond LEO missions will be described.

Description: On January 14, 2004 President George W. Bush announced a new Vision for Space Exploration calling for NASA to return humans to the moon. In 2005 NASA decided to use a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) rendezvous strategy for the lunar missions. A Discrete Event Simulation (DES) based model of this strategy was constructed. Results of the model were then used for subsequent analysis to explore the ramifications of the LEO rendezvous strategy.

Description: Human spaceflight logistics requirements are strongly driven by the daily living needs of the astronauts, including their biological functions. Oxygen, water and food are absolute requirements to sustain life and must be supplied at adequate rates. However, these rates can vary from day to day and from person to person. Beyond the body's immediate physical needs, water is also required for important health and hygiene functions within the spacecraft. Undesirable weight loss or gain aside, human waste product mass outputs will equal the inputs over time, resulting in an average astronaut mass balance. Best values, as well as range of variability for inputs and outputs are explored at both the individual physiological level and the spacecraft level. These values are important for design of life support and habitability systems as well as for mission planning of consumables. Current spacecraft life support systems are not fully closed loop, but the International Space Station (ISS) does recycle most of its air and water. The astronaut mass balances at the personal and vehicle level can have different impacts at different levels of system closure. Recommendations are made for a consistent set of values representing a realistic average astronaut mass balance over reasonable durations for exploration missions.

Description: Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance defined as the time between resupply opportunities will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

Description: Performance alone is insufficient to assess the total impact of changing mission parameters on a space mission concept, architecture, or campaign; the benefit, cost, and risk must also be understood. This paper examines the impact to benefit, cost, and risk of changing the total mission duration of a human Mars orbital mission. The changes in the sizing of the crew habitat, including consumables and spares, was assessed as a function of duration, including trades of different life support strategies; this was used to assess the impact on transportation system requirements. The impact to benefit is minimal, while the impact on cost is dominated by the increases in transportation costs to achieve shorter total durations. The risk is expected to be reduced by decreasing total mission duration; however, large uncertainty exists around the magnitude of that reduction.

Description: Future crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represent a logistical challenge that is unprecedented in human space flight. Astronauts will travel farther and stay in space for longer than any previous mission, far from timely abort or resupply from Earth. Under these conditions, supportability { defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations of systems { will be a much more significant driver of space system lifecycle properties than it has been in the past. This paper presents an overview of supportability for future human space flight. The particular challenges of future missions are discussed, with the differences between past, present, and future missions highlighted. The relationship between supportability metrics and mission cost, performance, schedule, and risk is also discussed. A set of pro- posed strategies for managing supportability is presented (including reliability growth, uncertainty reduction, level of repair, commonality, redundancy, In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) (including the use of material recycling and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for spares and maintenance items), reduced complexity, and spares inventory decisions such as the use of predeployed or cached spares - along with a discussion of the potential impacts of each of those strategies. References are provided to various sources that describe these supportability metrics and strategies, as well as associated modeling and optimization techniques, in greater detail. Overall, supportability is an emergent system characteristic and a holistic challenge for future system development. System designers and mission planners must carefully consider and balance the supportability metrics and decisions described in this paper in order to enable safe and effective beyond-LEO human space flight.